0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:30,000 This subtitle is not finished yet. If you are able to, please support us and watch the talk in amara for the last changes: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/1712 Thanks! 1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,860 *rC3 hacc preroll music* 2 00:00:07,860 --> 00:00:19,980 Herald [DE]: Ja, einen wunderschönen guten Tag. Herzlich willkommen zu Tag 4 auf der 3 00:00:19,980 --> 00:00:25,080 XHain Bühne. Unserem letzten Live Talk hier. Der Talk wird in Englisch sein. 4 00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:27,529 Darum wechsele ich jetzt auch mal auf Englisch. 5 00:00:27,529 --> 00:00:32,500 Herald [EN]: So. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to day 4 of the remote 6 00:00:32,500 --> 00:00:39,770 chasos experience. Our last live talk here on our XHain stage, which is as was the 7 00:00:39,770 --> 00:00:45,570 talk about self-driving cars yesterday, a production we do for the Munich channel. I 8 00:00:45,570 --> 00:00:50,060 kind of forgot to mention that yesterday. Sorry. Thank you Munich for choosing nice 9 00:00:50,060 --> 00:00:57,910 talks and we are happy to produce them. And yeah, so today our guest is Dr. Kira 10 00:00:57,910 --> 00:01:03,570 Vinke. She is from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and she is 11 00:01:03,570 --> 00:01:09,330 going to tell us a little bit about Corona and the climate crisis. And is going to 12 00:01:09,330 --> 00:01:15,050 compare those emergencies. And yeah, without further ado, the stage is yours. 13 00:01:15,050 --> 00:01:18,610 Kira: Thanks, so much, Felix. And it's a pleasure to be here and talk to you today 14 00:01:18,610 --> 00:01:24,000 about the parallels of the Corona pandemic and the climate crisis. This talk builds 15 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:29,780 upon a research paper that we released over the summer, and it will follow its 16 00:01:29,780 --> 00:01:34,470 structure more or less. At the end we'll have time for discussion. So let me just 17 00:01:34,470 --> 00:01:40,270 start by giving you a quick run through what I will go through. We structured our 18 00:01:40,270 --> 00:01:45,140 talk into several sections called diagnosis, prognosis, therapy, 19 00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:49,720 rehabilitation, and of course, the conclusion. And on the right hand side, 20 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:56,840 you can see the paper. So during the Covid-19 pandemic, institutional deficits 21 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:02,000 surfaced, one could see there was a lack of preparedness. Risks that could have 22 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,880 been averted were not. And there are significant parallels between this global 23 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:12,170 health emergency and the climate emergency, which have become apparent over 24 00:02:12,170 --> 00:02:18,240 the past years. And the questions that arose were, how can global society manage 25 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:24,209 the shared risks and avert emergencies and what can we learn for emergency prevention 26 00:02:24,209 --> 00:02:28,990 and management? So what is an emergency? This is the first thing we started out 27 00:02:28,990 --> 00:02:34,730 with. And we rely upon a paper that was published before this on on the climate 28 00:02:34,730 --> 00:02:39,630 emergency. And here already the parallels unfold. It is called the emergency 29 00:02:39,630 --> 00:02:47,020 formula, and it basically defines emergency as risk multiplied by urgency. 30 00:02:47,020 --> 00:02:53,450 But what is risk? Risk is the probability times the damage and the urgency is the 31 00:02:53,450 --> 00:02:59,990 reaction time over the intervention time. So here you can see a picture of what is 32 00:02:59,990 --> 00:03:04,640 supposed to be the Titanic and the iceberg. And this is exactly the situation 33 00:03:04,640 --> 00:03:13,849 that that provides a metaphor for what an emergency is. As I said before, emergency 34 00:03:13,849 --> 00:03:20,780 is identified by risk times urgency, which is the probability times damage for 35 00:03:20,780 --> 00:03:25,790 multiplied by reaction time over intervention time. And I will go more into 36 00:03:25,790 --> 00:03:30,870 detail of what this means in terms of the climate crisis and the Corona crisis. 37 00:03:30,870 --> 00:03:36,220 Basically, what is important to realize that, is that if reaction time and 38 00:03:36,220 --> 00:03:43,040 intervention time converge, so the time to avoid damages and the time that is 39 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:50,550 available to do so, we have lost control. So it's very important to to avoid this 40 00:03:50,550 --> 00:03:56,840 and we will go structure the talk with this emergency formula. So let's first 41 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:03,630 look at the diagnosis, which is providing scientific understanding. If we do a risk 42 00:04:03,630 --> 00:04:10,379 assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 and climate change. There are several factors that you 43 00:04:10,379 --> 00:04:16,949 need to look at. For example, in the case of Covid-19, the contagiousness, the 44 00:04:16,949 --> 00:04:23,270 duration of infections, the transmission pathways, the mortality, which groups are 45 00:04:23,270 --> 00:04:28,719 more at risk and why? What are the options available for therapy? This, of course, 46 00:04:28,719 --> 00:04:35,469 changed throughout the duration of the pandemic. How is immunity structured? Does 47 00:04:35,469 --> 00:04:40,379 it, are you immune after the infection, so on, so forth. In the case of climate 48 00:04:40,379 --> 00:04:45,990 change, of course, one very important variable are greenhouse gas emissions and 49 00:04:45,990 --> 00:04:51,370 the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but also how the climate 50 00:04:51,370 --> 00:04:56,370 system reacts to it. So what is the climate sensitivity here? Then temperature 51 00:04:56,370 --> 00:05:00,099 rise, the resulting climate impacts, sea level rise, extreme events such as 52 00:05:00,099 --> 00:05:06,879 tropical cyclones, floods and droughts, et cetera, and also our adaptive capacity, 53 00:05:06,879 --> 00:05:13,990 how how we are able to respond and adapt to these different changes. So this risk 54 00:05:13,990 --> 00:05:21,370 assessment, this diagnosis is the basis for all further steps that we're looking 55 00:05:21,370 --> 00:05:27,449 at. One example here, and that became quite clear early on in the Covid-19 56 00:05:27,449 --> 00:05:33,789 pandemic is the Case Fatality Rate of Covid-19. This is basically, this graph is 57 00:05:33,789 --> 00:05:40,830 basically showing you that the older the age groups are, the higher the mortality 58 00:05:40,830 --> 00:05:47,659 rate is. So this means that elderly people are much more likely to develop severe 59 00:05:47,659 --> 00:05:54,080 symptoms and are also much more likely to die from those symptoms than younger 60 00:05:54,080 --> 00:06:01,330 people. In, in the case of climate change, the projections are also quite clear. Here 61 00:06:01,330 --> 00:06:07,949 you can see two different graphs on climate change projections. On the left 62 00:06:07,949 --> 00:06:14,860 hand side, you can see how greenhouse gas emissions would drive temperature change 63 00:06:14,860 --> 00:06:24,270 over time. So you can see the change until 2100. And you can see that it strongly 64 00:06:24,270 --> 00:06:30,319 depends on the emissions pathway we take. So the blue, the blue areas that you see 65 00:06:30,319 --> 00:06:35,330 here is the pathway that would be in line with the Paris Agreement that would 66 00:06:35,330 --> 00:06:41,199 require rapid emissions reductions. And the red pathway is what would happen if we 67 00:06:41,199 --> 00:06:46,780 do not stop growing the emissions and would lead us to what we call a business 68 00:06:46,780 --> 00:06:54,069 as usual scenario, which could lead to 4 degrees plus by the end of the century. On 69 00:06:54,069 --> 00:07:01,599 the right hand side, you see the so-called Burning Ember graphic also from the IPCC, 70 00:07:01,599 --> 00:07:05,409 where you can see the different levels of risks associated with different 71 00:07:05,409 --> 00:07:12,349 temperature levels on the right hand side. So, for example, unique and threatened 72 00:07:12,349 --> 00:07:17,679 systems such as coral reef systems are already under pressure right now as we are 73 00:07:17,679 --> 00:07:27,399 around above 1° Celsius, above industrial levels of average temperature. So when you 74 00:07:27,399 --> 00:07:32,259 look at pandemics, when you look at climate change, in the case of Germany, 75 00:07:32,259 --> 00:07:38,409 these threats to global security are already mentioned in certain documents. So 76 00:07:38,409 --> 00:07:42,389 you can see it here and the guidelines on Civilian Crisis Prevention and also in the 77 00:07:42,389 --> 00:07:47,219 Whitebook of the German military, the German Bundeswehr. I posted 2 quotes for 78 00:07:47,219 --> 00:07:52,490 you here. For example, health risks can have destabilizing effects on whole 79 00:07:52,490 --> 00:07:58,399 regions and can undo long standing development gains. So these aspects are 80 00:07:58,399 --> 00:08:03,539 mentioned, climate impacts and pandemics are mentioned as challenges for German 81 00:08:03,539 --> 00:08:13,569 security, but there's no concrete strategy of what to do with this risk. So looking 82 00:08:13,569 --> 00:08:21,280 at the next step, the prognosis, we can see here, how we define urgency again. So 83 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:25,979 urgency is a reaction time over intervention time and intervention time is 84 00:08:25,979 --> 00:08:31,789 a time span from the point that a risk identified to the point of impact. 85 00:08:31,789 --> 00:08:37,960 Reaction time is a time span needed to change course and avoid impact. And the 86 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,280 reaction time depends both on hard factors. So what type of infrastructure 87 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:46,380 you have or what type of technology you have? And also on soft factors such as 88 00:08:46,380 --> 00:08:52,740 information networks, political leadership and willingness to act. So it's not only, 89 00:08:52,740 --> 00:08:58,840 only the system that defines how we are able to react, but also the choices by 90 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:04,300 society and political leaders. So again, urgent action is required if the risk of 91 00:09:04,300 --> 00:09:10,330 damage is high and the reaction time and intervention time converge. So we know 92 00:09:10,330 --> 00:09:14,470 that control is lost if the reaction time is longer than the intervention time 93 00:09:14,470 --> 00:09:24,150 available. Then basically, the impacts cannot be avoided any longer. When we look 94 00:09:24,150 --> 00:09:30,090 at the urgency in the case of SARS-CoV-2 the coronavirus that has caused the 95 00:09:30,090 --> 00:09:34,860 pandemic over the past year, there are critical time points after which a certain 96 00:09:34,860 --> 00:09:43,020 level of damage can no longer be avoided. And this critical time spans encompass, 97 00:09:43,020 --> 00:09:49,120 for example, national outbreaks. So it could have been contained locally or, or 98 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:56,460 to certain regions within one state. It could have been that a pandemic could have 99 00:09:56,460 --> 00:10:03,050 been avoided and just limited to an endemic so that the virus would not have 100 00:10:03,050 --> 00:10:08,370 spread beyond China. And another critical time span is that the number of intensive 101 00:10:08,370 --> 00:10:17,060 care patients is not larger than the number of intensive care beds. And even 102 00:10:17,060 --> 00:10:23,400 small delays in testing and tracing can have large and deadly consequences. So 103 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:30,080 this means that even if you then invest in adaptation, meaning you start buying 104 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:36,570 intensive care units, ventilators, trained staff, etc., if you are already on this 105 00:10:36,570 --> 00:10:41,510 exponential curve, this will not suffice to prevent the damage which you could have 106 00:10:41,510 --> 00:10:50,130 prevented if you had started to to act earlier. And a similar situation on a much 107 00:10:50,130 --> 00:10:55,940 larger scale we are facing with the climate crisis. We know for intervention 108 00:10:55,940 --> 00:11:00,560 time that at the current levels of CO2 emissions, the carbon budget, so the 109 00:11:00,560 --> 00:11:06,980 amount of CO2 that we can still release into the atmosphere will be exceeded in 110 00:11:06,980 --> 00:11:15,600 less than 8 years under the current emissions pathway. And this would mean 111 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:22,680 that, as I showed earlier, some graphs that certain risks would materialize. For 112 00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:28,110 example, tipping elements could occur in the Earth's system as early as 1.5 113 00:11:28,110 --> 00:11:33,550 degrees. And this could mean that there's potential points of no return after which 114 00:11:33,550 --> 00:11:40,690 these these risks and these changes can no longer be undone. The reaction time herein 115 00:11:40,690 --> 00:11:46,260 is the decarbonization of the global economy. So if you imagine that we have to 116 00:11:46,260 --> 00:11:52,630 go to net zero emissions globally, this requires also time to do so. We cannot 117 00:11:52,630 --> 00:11:56,450 just simply switch from one day to another and it's time to decarbonize energy 118 00:11:56,450 --> 00:12:01,700 system, to build new structures to, for example, change the way we practice 119 00:12:01,700 --> 00:12:05,990 agriculture, the way we construct buildings, etc. All of this requires 120 00:12:05,990 --> 00:12:12,090 certain times until we have both the technology available, but also the system 121 00:12:12,090 --> 00:12:19,940 infrastructure available to us so that we can transform all of this. And yeah, the 122 00:12:19,940 --> 00:12:24,970 control is lost when the time left for intervention to avoid harm is smaller than 123 00:12:24,970 --> 00:12:30,470 the time needed for reaction. So this is the point at which the Titanic sunk. 124 00:12:30,470 --> 00:12:37,490 Then... even though the iceberg was visible relatively early on. There were 125 00:12:37,490 --> 00:12:43,010 only a few seconds in which the captain could have turned the ship and avoided the 126 00:12:43,010 --> 00:12:48,150 impact. After that, it was no longer possible and the fate was sealed, 127 00:12:48,150 --> 00:12:54,030 basically. So what you here sees is that tipping points in the Earth's system can 128 00:12:54,030 --> 00:13:00,940 start as early as around 1.5°s for some systems. And the tipping elements are 129 00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:08,950 connected potentially in somewhat of a domino effect, meaning that they can start 130 00:13:08,950 --> 00:13:15,370 influencing each other when one system tips it affects the tipping probability of 131 00:13:15,370 --> 00:13:26,130 the others. So, for example, one element here is the Amazon rainforest. It can tip, 132 00:13:26,130 --> 00:13:32,750 change it's its character from a tropical rainforest to more of a savannah type of 133 00:13:32,750 --> 00:13:39,930 forest when the temperatures rise above 4° or when deforestation reaches a quarter of 134 00:13:39,930 --> 00:13:47,720 the of the forest cover. So this is very worrisome because right now deforestation 135 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:53,070 rates are very high and also warming is is increasing. So this tipping point is 136 00:13:53,070 --> 00:14:01,200 approaching sooner than is comfortable for our risk assessment. What is the role of 137 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:07,630 science in this prognosis? So what is interesting about the role of science and 138 00:14:07,630 --> 00:14:12,050 here is that we learned in the Corona pandemic that science can help us to 139 00:14:12,050 --> 00:14:17,980 understand risk before they arrive at our doorstep. So before we can see the effects 140 00:14:17,980 --> 00:14:24,500 of these risks. So long before the impact occurs, we can, through science, for 141 00:14:24,500 --> 00:14:29,290 example, through epidemiological models, through climate models, anticipate the 142 00:14:29,290 --> 00:14:34,740 risk and therefore act very early on and so to say, increase our perceived 143 00:14:34,740 --> 00:14:39,820 intervention time. So we need to assess the risk. What is the probability and what 144 00:14:39,820 --> 00:14:44,710 type of damages could could occur and what is the urgency? What is intervention time? 145 00:14:44,710 --> 00:14:48,820 What are critical point that we really need to avoid? And what is the reaction 146 00:14:48,820 --> 00:14:56,410 time when how can we still intervene? And we know for both Corona and the climate, 147 00:14:56,410 --> 00:15:01,210 that cascading impacts could overwhelm our capacity. In the case of Corona, of 148 00:15:01,210 --> 00:15:05,600 course, is mostly refers to our health systems capacity. And we know that 149 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:11,770 immediate action is required to avoid damages such as deaths. And what is the 150 00:15:11,770 --> 00:15:18,260 therapy, our headline for the therapy is avoiding the unmanageable and managing the 151 00:15:18,260 --> 00:15:24,320 unavoidable. So the unmanageable in this case is health system overload or collapse 152 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:29,890 because of extreme demand for intensive care. And in climate change, it would be 153 00:15:29,890 --> 00:15:36,540 more than 2° global warming. And to avoid really this tipping cascade and potential 154 00:15:36,540 --> 00:15:41,450 ecosystem collapses that would follow. This would require mitigation and 155 00:15:41,450 --> 00:15:45,921 prevention of infections in the case of Covid and mitigation of greenhouse gas 156 00:15:45,921 --> 00:15:52,150 emissions in the case of climate change. The unavoidable is in the case of Covid-19 157 00:15:52,150 --> 00:15:57,400 disease outbreaks and deaths from infections that have already occurred and 158 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:01,741 in climate change, warming and impacts from already released greenhouse gas 159 00:16:01,741 --> 00:16:06,460 emissions, which we are already witnessing today. And throughout this entire year, it 160 00:16:06,460 --> 00:16:12,170 has become abundantly clear that wildfires are destroying habitats of both humans and 161 00:16:12,170 --> 00:16:19,520 animals. And the unavoidable requires us also to invest into adaptation so that we 162 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:26,720 can limit the experience of damages that are occurring. Yeah, what can we learn 163 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:31,540 from the pandemic, it is that people can and are willing to change their behavior 164 00:16:31,540 --> 00:16:39,640 if they perceive a crisis and that the sum of many individual actions matter. So it 165 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:44,970 does matter if I the way I behave personally, it does matter. It can change 166 00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:49,080 the course of a global and national crisis. So this insight is very, very 167 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:54,779 important for for both crises, actually. But it also requires strategic and 168 00:16:54,779 --> 00:17:00,470 coordinated action. So we need this government regulations in order to 169 00:17:00,470 --> 00:17:06,480 coordinate our collective action that rests on individual efforts. So these are 170 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,909 all insights that are in that sense encouraging in the sense that we are able 171 00:17:10,909 --> 00:17:18,949 to cope and to overcome very complex crises. And when we look at how to 172 00:17:18,949 --> 00:17:24,369 transition to carbon neutrality and how to reach climate stability, we can look at 173 00:17:24,369 --> 00:17:28,499 two approaches. One is a bottom-up approach, people changing their habits, 174 00:17:28,499 --> 00:17:33,679 and one is this coordinated top-down approach where we redefine how we want to 175 00:17:33,679 --> 00:17:39,879 govern global commons. And one important insight is this solidarity that this is 176 00:17:39,879 --> 00:17:45,730 based on. For the climate crisis, it is clear that we need to change the course of 177 00:17:45,730 --> 00:17:50,899 global emissions here you can see the so- called carbon staircase up on which a 178 00:17:50,899 --> 00:17:56,580 paper was built that shows that there are several steps that are required in the 179 00:17:56,580 --> 00:18:03,090 next decades in order to reach net zero emissions by the middle of the century 180 00:18:03,090 --> 00:18:08,159 worldwide. And there are several low hanging fruits that could be tackled very 181 00:18:08,159 --> 00:18:17,059 early on. But for this, we need rehabilitation, we need healing of body 182 00:18:17,059 --> 00:18:24,369 and soul across the generations, because it is a really interesting situation that 183 00:18:24,369 --> 00:18:30,119 in the Covid-19 pandemic, the elderly generations are much more at risk than the 184 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,990 younger generations. I remind you of the slide that I had shown earlier where you 185 00:18:33,990 --> 00:18:39,880 see the case fatality rate going up as you as the age increases. Whereas in the 186 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:44,210 climate crisis, the younger generations are the most affected because in the 187 00:18:44,210 --> 00:18:51,470 future, like the the heap of the mass of climate impacts. So it is important to to 188 00:18:51,470 --> 00:19:00,090 unite behind the science and to have a kind of constellation of actors that seeks 189 00:19:00,090 --> 00:19:06,509 to protect the weakest. And this has worked to some degree at least, and in 190 00:19:06,509 --> 00:19:10,159 different constellations. In the case of the Covid-19 pandemic, the different 191 00:19:10,159 --> 00:19:15,289 actors who are less affected by the pandemic moved to protect the elderly 192 00:19:15,289 --> 00:19:21,440 generations. And in the case of the climate crisis, we need the same thing. We 193 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:26,720 need a coalition of actors who is willing to change course in order to protect the 194 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:32,929 youth. And this is the ethical dilemma, of course, of weighing economic, cultural and 195 00:19:32,929 --> 00:19:38,509 societal sacrifices against the direct protection of lives from the infection or 196 00:19:38,509 --> 00:19:43,019 against severe future climate risk unfolding only in maybe decades, although 197 00:19:43,019 --> 00:19:49,679 we can obviously see already very severe climate impacts emerge. So one key 198 00:19:49,679 --> 00:19:56,539 ingredient for this is intergenerational justice. And we demand in this in this 199 00:19:56,539 --> 00:20:01,350 paper, so-called climate and Corona contract. Where young generations would 200 00:20:01,350 --> 00:20:06,610 pledge to protect the elderly and other at risk groups by adhering to infection 201 00:20:06,610 --> 00:20:11,610 protection measures. As has been the case over the past year. Most young people have 202 00:20:11,610 --> 00:20:16,649 adhered to to the infection protection measures, although they themselves were 203 00:20:16,649 --> 00:20:22,299 not at high risk. And at the same time, older generations would uphold and 204 00:20:22,299 --> 00:20:26,450 strengthen commitments on climate protection, such as the Paris Agreement, 205 00:20:26,450 --> 00:20:34,169 such as the European Green Deal to protect the future of the youth. At the end, I 206 00:20:34,169 --> 00:20:41,559 would like to remind you that already all future crises will happen against the 207 00:20:41,559 --> 00:20:47,029 background, against, of the climate crisis. So we have seen, for example, in 208 00:20:47,029 --> 00:20:52,549 the case of the Corona pandemic, that island nations like Vanuatu had to battle 209 00:20:52,549 --> 00:20:57,870 on two fronts, basically trying to uphold infection protection measures while also 210 00:20:57,870 --> 00:21:03,580 being extremely affected by tropical cyclones. And in other cases, this was 211 00:21:03,580 --> 00:21:08,990 also the case like with droughts, with floods, with heat waves. It's very 212 00:21:08,990 --> 00:21:12,590 difficult to address multiple crises, which is why we need to address the 213 00:21:12,590 --> 00:21:20,889 climate crisis urgently. The conclusion here is it's time to act and the different 214 00:21:20,889 --> 00:21:27,100 variables of the emergency formula can be influenced by mitigation, which lowers the 215 00:21:27,100 --> 00:21:32,460 probability for damage to occur at the beginning. Adaptation, limiting the 216 00:21:32,460 --> 00:21:38,559 experience of adverse effects of damages. Governance to be able to efficiently use 217 00:21:38,559 --> 00:21:42,950 our reaction, time. And science, which can increase the human perception of the 218 00:21:42,950 --> 00:21:49,140 remaining intervention time. So based on this going back through, to our emergency 219 00:21:49,140 --> 00:21:53,940 formula, we have built a kind of contingency plan because we know some 220 00:21:53,940 --> 00:22:00,389 damages can no longer be avoided, both for climate change and the Corona pandemic. 221 00:22:00,389 --> 00:22:04,159 But there are certain things that we can do to limit the damages and limit the 222 00:22:04,159 --> 00:22:09,940 experience of the damages. With this, I look forward to our discussion and I close 223 00:22:09,940 --> 00:22:13,860 the talk. Thank you very much. 224 00:22:13,860 --> 00:22:20,230 H: There are already some questions in the pad. If the audience wants to add more 225 00:22:20,230 --> 00:22:25,220 questions, now it's the time for that. The 1. question is, what do we know about 226 00:22:25,220 --> 00:22:29,850 people, groups spreading misinformation to make climate change and the pandemic 227 00:22:29,850 --> 00:22:33,990 worse? Is there evidence for my impression that they are mostly the same for both 228 00:22:33,990 --> 00:22:37,130 topics? K: Now, that's a very interesting 229 00:22:37,130 --> 00:22:43,399 question. For the case of climate change. It has been proven many a time that there 230 00:22:43,399 --> 00:22:49,149 are companies, especially fossil fuel companies, other lobbyist groups, who are 231 00:22:49,149 --> 00:22:55,059 investing in spreading and the spread of misinformation, basically. So this is 232 00:22:55,059 --> 00:23:02,049 often very well done. It's concealed behind very fancy looking graphics and for 233 00:23:02,049 --> 00:23:07,309 the layperson, very difficult to distinguish what is information provided 234 00:23:07,309 --> 00:23:12,269 by scientists and what is information provided by somebody who can make nice 235 00:23:12,269 --> 00:23:18,500 graphs, basically. So this is this is a very crucial element why action has been 236 00:23:18,500 --> 00:23:23,710 delayed over decades. I mean, a lot of this knowledge about climate change was 237 00:23:23,710 --> 00:23:28,120 already available decades ago. We knew about the risk. Now we even know more 238 00:23:28,120 --> 00:23:33,940 about the risks. Yet people are hesitant to act. And the spread of misinformation 239 00:23:33,940 --> 00:23:39,659 for the Covid-19 pandemic also goes into the direction of science denial, 240 00:23:39,659 --> 00:23:45,389 basically. And I think it comes from the same sort of mindset sometimes, not from 241 00:23:45,389 --> 00:23:53,679 exactly the same sources. Exactly. But one element is, of course, the the 242 00:23:53,679 --> 00:24:00,210 availability or non availability of reliable news formats. So in Germany, we 243 00:24:00,210 --> 00:24:05,989 have news formats that I trusted by the public that everybody can rely on in order 244 00:24:05,989 --> 00:24:12,309 to receive information. But this kind of publicly funded news is not available in 245 00:24:12,309 --> 00:24:20,320 every country. And this has led to news channels being more or less on one 246 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:25,820 political spectrum or the other. And it has led to the politicization of issues 247 00:24:25,820 --> 00:24:32,200 like climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic, which is very problematic 248 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:38,049 because. It's fine to have an opinion about which policies should be made. But 249 00:24:38,049 --> 00:24:41,020 the facts should be the same in our discussion, even if we have different 250 00:24:41,020 --> 00:24:47,379 opinions about the policies and such. And I see here also a lot of danger in the 251 00:24:47,379 --> 00:24:52,510 spread of misinformation over social media networks from which a lot of people are 252 00:24:52,510 --> 00:24:57,590 now relying on for their news source. So this is also problematic because there's 253 00:24:57,590 --> 00:25:04,169 no real fact checking going on there. H: Thank you for that answer. The 2. 254 00:25:04,169 --> 00:25:08,210 question would be, given that our CO2 budget will be used up within 8 years 255 00:25:08,210 --> 00:25:13,549 while mainstream politics reject the very concept of a CO2 budget and fossil lobby 256 00:25:13,549 --> 00:25:17,580 groups seem to be as influential as ever. Do you think that we already crossed the 257 00:25:17,580 --> 00:25:26,000 point of losing control? K: Um, I mean, it's it's difficult to say. 258 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:31,340 For once, there are still a lot that we can save by our actions. So I personally 259 00:25:31,340 --> 00:25:36,759 have a lot of hope that the transformation will be more rapid than what from what we 260 00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:42,139 can foresee from this current standpoint. And there's still a lot that a lot of 261 00:25:42,139 --> 00:25:49,679 systems that are stable for a lot more time, a lot more emissions. So it's very 262 00:25:49,679 --> 00:25:54,669 important that we keep those safe. However, we have already lost a lot as 263 00:25:54,669 --> 00:25:59,159 well. So it's really, it really depends on your standpoint. So if you live on the 264 00:25:59,159 --> 00:26:04,220 Marshall Islands in the Central Pacific, which are 2 meters above sea level. Yeah, 265 00:26:04,220 --> 00:26:08,790 it's it's we are at a very critical point. And also, if you're in Bangladesh, if your 266 00:26:08,790 --> 00:26:12,440 child has died from a tropical cyclone, that would have normally not occurred in 267 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:18,139 that strength, the point of no return has been crossed for that child. Right? So 268 00:26:18,139 --> 00:26:22,970 it's it's very it's very dependent on your your standpoint here in Germany. Here in 269 00:26:22,970 --> 00:26:27,840 Europe, we have the money to fortify our housing et cetera. We can we can adapt to 270 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,609 some degree of climate change, we are also not as exposed as other countries because 271 00:26:31,609 --> 00:26:40,629 of our geography. But it's important to emphasize that it's worth the fight to to 272 00:26:40,629 --> 00:26:45,720 limit emissions now. And I also see some positive indications that it is now being 273 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:51,499 taken more more seriously. H: Thank you, all the good things are 3. 274 00:26:51,499 --> 00:26:58,340 So a 3. question. Especially if I see the picture in your slide there. Do you think 275 00:26:58,340 --> 00:27:06,720 that the Corona pandemic made the climate change ignorance worse in the last year? 276 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,350 So that it was more in the background and people are thinking about like more 277 00:27:11,350 --> 00:27:17,600 threatening problems because that's, they happen faster than climate change? 278 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:24,600 K: I don't think so. I think it has still, it has still been in the media. Still, I'm 279 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:29,989 able to talk here to you. There are still people who are interested in this. So I 280 00:27:29,989 --> 00:27:34,289 think it was not completely forgotten. But of course, the urgency of the Corona 281 00:27:34,289 --> 00:27:41,340 pandemic demanded the attention of policymakers, etc.. So I it is my hope 282 00:27:41,340 --> 00:27:49,340 that through the experience of the adverse effects also in industrialized countries 283 00:27:49,340 --> 00:27:54,570 of this pandemic, we realized that we are not exempt in Germany or in Europe or in 284 00:27:54,570 --> 00:28:00,479 the United States or wherever from global shocks. It matters to us if there's a 285 00:28:00,479 --> 00:28:04,799 wildlife trade in China. We have to be concerned about, as should be the people 286 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:09,929 in Bangladesh should be concerned about coal mines and Brandenburg. So I think 287 00:28:09,929 --> 00:28:14,879 this recognition that we are connected and we can lose control even in modern 288 00:28:14,879 --> 00:28:20,499 societies like in Italy, for example, capacities of the health system were 289 00:28:20,499 --> 00:28:26,139 overwhelmed. So even then, I think we have come to the realization that we are 290 00:28:26,139 --> 00:28:31,470 actually fragile and we need to take risk assessment seriously and not just rely on 291 00:28:31,470 --> 00:28:35,769 our good fortune. H: OK, thank you very much for the answer 292 00:28:35,769 --> 00:28:42,179 and there's another question. If we see Corona as the speedrun, can we learn 293 00:28:42,179 --> 00:28:45,519 something from our response to the pandemic, from our response to climate 294 00:28:45,519 --> 00:28:48,549 change? K: I didn't hear the 1. word. 295 00:28:48,549 --> 00:28:57,580 H: If we see Corona, as the speedrun. So like that was the fast to react to a 296 00:28:57,580 --> 00:29:04,809 worldwide crisis. What can we learn from our response to the pandemic for the fight 297 00:29:04,809 --> 00:29:08,809 against climate change? K: Yeah, yeah. The speedrun. Sorry I 298 00:29:08,809 --> 00:29:14,230 didn't catch it the first time. Yeah. I think it shows that if we intervene early 299 00:29:14,230 --> 00:29:21,100 enough, we really have a chance to avoid later damages. So we really need to use 300 00:29:21,100 --> 00:29:29,240 this scientific means of risk and dissipation in order to to avoid 301 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:34,830 exponentially rising damages. So I think this is this is one very happy 302 00:29:34,830 --> 00:29:40,220 realization. And the second is, and I mentioned this in the talk, is that 303 00:29:40,220 --> 00:29:45,889 everything we do matters. It's not that we are just helpless in this situation, but 304 00:29:45,889 --> 00:29:50,450 everybody can do something and does contribute to a larger thing. So in the 305 00:29:50,450 --> 00:29:55,450 case of Covid-19, it's whether I will have a party with 10 people or not, whether I 306 00:29:55,450 --> 00:30:00,409 will choose to meet several friends after another or not. In the case of climate 307 00:30:00,409 --> 00:30:04,229 change, it does matter if you are taking the flights, if you're voting for a Green 308 00:30:04,229 --> 00:30:10,229 Party or for for a party that doesn't take anything seriously. So these individual 309 00:30:10,229 --> 00:30:15,129 decisions accumulate to something bigger and they can change the course of a global 310 00:30:15,129 --> 00:30:19,019 and national crisis. H: OK, thank you very much, and I don't 311 00:30:19,019 --> 00:30:25,129 see any more questions, so thank you for your talk and hope to see you soon. 312 00:30:25,129 --> 00:30:30,000 K: Thank you as well. 313 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:37,950 Subtitles created by c3subtitles.de in the year 2021. Join, and help us!