0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:30,000 Dear viewer, these subtitles were generated by a machine via the service Trint and therefore are (very) buggy. If you are capable, please help us to create good quality subtitles: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/892 Thanks! 1 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:17,479 Welcome, Kate. 2 00:00:18,810 --> 00:00:21,119 Or shall I say say 3 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,399 who say, all right, 4 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,259 I'm having the honor and the pleasure 5 00:00:28,260 --> 00:00:30,479 to introduce to you three people 6 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,789 here for the first lecture and say 7 00:00:32,790 --> 00:00:34,919 who will start PGD 8 00:00:35,940 --> 00:00:37,769 doing a Ph.D. 9 00:00:37,770 --> 00:00:39,719 concerning environmental upset 10 00:00:41,370 --> 00:00:44,489 in which university? 11 00:00:44,490 --> 00:00:45,379 Hidell back. 12 00:00:45,380 --> 00:00:46,380 All right. 13 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,409 I noticed here that for some people, 14 00:00:50,460 --> 00:00:53,219 climate change seems to be just 15 00:00:53,220 --> 00:00:54,689 news that's passing by. 16 00:00:54,690 --> 00:00:56,789 For some of us, it's a little bit 17 00:00:56,790 --> 00:00:58,499 more fake news. 18 00:00:58,500 --> 00:01:00,240 Someone this morning called it even, 19 00:01:01,290 --> 00:01:03,359 uh, he called for some 20 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,279 good old global warming. 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:06,449 I noticed. 22 00:01:06,450 --> 00:01:08,729 And I think we all need to reconsider 23 00:01:08,730 --> 00:01:09,659 solutions. 24 00:01:09,660 --> 00:01:11,879 Otherwise we could end up in 25 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,230 a kind of a la a couple of 26 00:01:14,850 --> 00:01:15,839 the is to you. 27 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:17,340 Please give her a welcome applause. 28 00:01:24,820 --> 00:01:27,209 Hello, everyone, is this working? 29 00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:28,239 Hello? 30 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,609 Hello, can you hear me? 31 00:01:30,610 --> 00:01:32,409 Oh, fantastic, I was just not used to 32 00:01:32,410 --> 00:01:34,169 that. OK, fantastic. 33 00:01:34,170 --> 00:01:36,489 Welcome to the talk about climate change. 34 00:01:37,660 --> 00:01:39,309 Why am I here? 35 00:01:39,310 --> 00:01:40,929 Last year I was at Congress and I talked 36 00:01:40,930 --> 00:01:43,089 to some friends about 37 00:01:43,090 --> 00:01:44,619 climate change and they had a lot of 38 00:01:44,620 --> 00:01:46,539 questions, really basic questions and a 39 00:01:46,540 --> 00:01:48,639 lot of open issues. 40 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:49,869 And I'm not used to that. 41 00:01:49,870 --> 00:01:52,209 Like in my surroundings, 42 00:01:52,210 --> 00:01:53,319 everyone is working with us. 43 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:54,369 We know a lot of us. 44 00:01:54,370 --> 00:01:56,469 And it was not clear to me that there's 45 00:01:56,470 --> 00:01:58,539 a lot of need for information 46 00:01:58,540 --> 00:02:00,939 out there. So I prepared to talk 47 00:02:00,940 --> 00:02:02,920 and apparently it was really, really 48 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,339 popular. So now I'm here 49 00:02:06,340 --> 00:02:08,198 and I will show you about the basics of 50 00:02:08,199 --> 00:02:10,269 climate change and 51 00:02:10,270 --> 00:02:12,399 I will invite you to become part of the 52 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:13,689 climate conspiracy with us. 53 00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:15,939 So, um, 54 00:02:15,940 --> 00:02:17,439 what are the basics? 55 00:02:18,490 --> 00:02:20,799 We have to use 56 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:21,889 two bodies in space. 57 00:02:21,890 --> 00:02:24,279 There's the sun and there's a planet 58 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:25,329 or a rock. 59 00:02:25,330 --> 00:02:26,649 And they don't have any way of 60 00:02:26,650 --> 00:02:28,719 interacting with each other, with 61 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,849 each other, apart from electromagnetic 62 00:02:30,850 --> 00:02:31,749 radiation. 63 00:02:31,750 --> 00:02:33,340 You can see here, there is 64 00:02:34,980 --> 00:02:37,209 a lot of distance between the two and the 65 00:02:37,210 --> 00:02:39,610 only interaction possible is light. 66 00:02:41,770 --> 00:02:44,049 What is light about? 67 00:02:44,050 --> 00:02:46,299 As you know, you can deconstruct light 68 00:02:46,300 --> 00:02:47,799 into its components. 69 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,629 You can see a rainbow if you use visible 70 00:02:49,630 --> 00:02:51,309 light for that, as you can see here with 71 00:02:51,310 --> 00:02:52,310 a prisma. 72 00:02:53,110 --> 00:02:54,789 And if we do that for sunlight, 73 00:02:55,900 --> 00:02:56,900 we see that 74 00:02:57,970 --> 00:03:00,139 there's a large máxima in the visible, 75 00:03:00,140 --> 00:03:02,919 visible part and the green to be exact, 76 00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:05,370 and of course, that's not a coincidence. 77 00:03:06,490 --> 00:03:08,529 And there's also a large part that we 78 00:03:08,530 --> 00:03:10,709 cannot see that's on the right, 79 00:03:10,710 --> 00:03:11,710 the long 80 00:03:13,180 --> 00:03:14,829 tail, that's infrared light. 81 00:03:14,830 --> 00:03:16,869 You can feel as warmth and on the short 82 00:03:16,870 --> 00:03:18,459 list is short sighted. 83 00:03:18,460 --> 00:03:20,829 There is a bit of infrared 84 00:03:20,830 --> 00:03:22,959 ultraviolet radiation that is harmful 85 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,699 to the skin. So this is what arrives at 86 00:03:24,700 --> 00:03:26,259 the top of the atmosphere. 87 00:03:26,260 --> 00:03:28,089 This kind of spectra you can see at the 88 00:03:28,090 --> 00:03:30,039 bottom, it's the wavelength, which is a 89 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:31,779 parameter that gives the energy of the 90 00:03:31,780 --> 00:03:34,359 light. And you're going to see that a lot 91 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,309 during this talk on the other axis, you 92 00:03:36,310 --> 00:03:37,579 have the intensity of the light. 93 00:03:37,580 --> 00:03:39,729 So a lot well, high 94 00:03:39,730 --> 00:03:40,629 values mean a lot. 95 00:03:40,630 --> 00:03:42,459 Low values mean only a little. 96 00:03:42,460 --> 00:03:44,589 And this is a new spectrum that's been 97 00:03:44,590 --> 00:03:46,629 taken on the ISIS, where they have 98 00:03:46,630 --> 00:03:48,849 monitored this spectra for over 99 00:03:48,850 --> 00:03:51,039 nine years all the time to 100 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,499 see the changes within one solar cycle. 101 00:03:53,500 --> 00:03:55,599 So this is a very 102 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,369 important area of research to see how 103 00:03:57,370 --> 00:03:58,629 this changes. 104 00:03:58,630 --> 00:04:00,819 So, um, if you've 105 00:04:00,820 --> 00:04:03,039 done physics before, you 106 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:04,899 have probably seen this kind of forum 107 00:04:04,900 --> 00:04:05,900 before. 108 00:04:07,140 --> 00:04:09,449 It's this form, it's. 109 00:04:10,660 --> 00:04:13,149 Given by Plank's law planks, 110 00:04:13,150 --> 00:04:15,309 a plank found this law in about 111 00:04:15,310 --> 00:04:17,409 nineteen hundred, and it gives the 112 00:04:17,410 --> 00:04:19,419 relationship between the temperature of 113 00:04:19,420 --> 00:04:21,549 the body and the radiation that comes out 114 00:04:21,550 --> 00:04:21,909 of it. 115 00:04:21,910 --> 00:04:24,099 We see that everybody that has 116 00:04:24,100 --> 00:04:25,749 a temperature higher than zero Kelvin, so 117 00:04:25,750 --> 00:04:27,459 nothing emits energy. 118 00:04:27,460 --> 00:04:29,639 You can feel it when you touch warm, 119 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,419 when you touch anything, you can feel 120 00:04:31,420 --> 00:04:32,829 some radiation coming off. 121 00:04:32,830 --> 00:04:34,599 And if it becomes warmer, you put 122 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:36,729 something in the fridge, it 123 00:04:36,730 --> 00:04:38,919 radiates off more energy. 124 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,029 So this is the relationship. 125 00:04:40,030 --> 00:04:41,439 I put the formula at the bottom. 126 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:42,789 Don't be surprised. 127 00:04:44,670 --> 00:04:46,949 At the same time, if you do 128 00:04:46,950 --> 00:04:47,950 the derivation. 129 00:04:49,100 --> 00:04:51,139 To see where the maximum is, you can see 130 00:04:51,140 --> 00:04:53,209 that it's simply it's simply inverse to 131 00:04:53,210 --> 00:04:54,719 temperature. 132 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,089 And as you can see here, there's a buddy 133 00:04:57,090 --> 00:04:59,249 that's very hot, it's a 2000 134 00:04:59,250 --> 00:05:02,189 Kelvin, there's a body that's only 1500 135 00:05:02,190 --> 00:05:04,379 Kelvin and a body that is 136 00:05:04,380 --> 00:05:05,429 only a thousand Kelvin. 137 00:05:05,430 --> 00:05:08,039 And you see that it gets less, 138 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,810 but the maximum also shifts. 139 00:05:10,940 --> 00:05:12,229 So why is this interesting? 140 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,039 Let's look at the temperatures of the sun 141 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,490 and the temperature we have at Earth, Ms. 142 00:05:20,580 --> 00:05:22,859 I did this in Python and 143 00:05:22,860 --> 00:05:25,079 I typed a little, so it's close 144 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,080 enough, it's fine. 145 00:05:26,670 --> 00:05:28,859 And you can see here that you can 146 00:05:28,860 --> 00:05:29,860 see nothing. 147 00:05:30,780 --> 00:05:31,780 Let me set that up, 148 00:05:32,970 --> 00:05:35,129 you can see there's a to the power 149 00:05:35,130 --> 00:05:37,649 of the minus seven on the 150 00:05:37,650 --> 00:05:39,869 on the right side, 151 00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:42,359 and that means that 152 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,579 there's a large difference in 153 00:05:44,580 --> 00:05:47,309 intensity between those two bodies. 154 00:05:47,310 --> 00:05:49,409 But what is really interesting is 155 00:05:49,410 --> 00:05:50,849 this part. 156 00:05:50,850 --> 00:05:53,039 There is almost 157 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,199 no overlap between these two spectra. 158 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,299 So the radiation coming off the 159 00:05:57,300 --> 00:05:59,559 sun and the radiation coming off 160 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,709 the earth, they 161 00:06:01,710 --> 00:06:03,209 are very, very different in energy. 162 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,050 Why is this interesting? 163 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,749 And we can now calculate 164 00:06:10,750 --> 00:06:12,549 the temperature of the Earth would have 165 00:06:12,550 --> 00:06:14,709 it if it was just like this simple 166 00:06:14,710 --> 00:06:17,199 energy equilibrium, 167 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,419 there's another parameter we need because 168 00:06:19,420 --> 00:06:21,729 the spectrum, the thermal 169 00:06:21,730 --> 00:06:24,489 radiation spectrum describes 170 00:06:24,490 --> 00:06:27,459 the sun fairly well, the earth 171 00:06:27,460 --> 00:06:28,479 not so well. 172 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,549 And the reason is that the earth also 173 00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:32,679 reflects light and 174 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:34,569 the ratio between the incoming light and 175 00:06:34,570 --> 00:06:37,059 the reflected light is called albedo. 176 00:06:37,060 --> 00:06:39,249 And just to demonstrate this, I 177 00:06:39,250 --> 00:06:41,199 put an object with high albedo and an 178 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,179 object with low albedo here. 179 00:06:43,180 --> 00:06:44,889 And you can see that one of them absorbs 180 00:06:44,890 --> 00:06:47,259 all incoming light and the other one 181 00:06:47,260 --> 00:06:48,699 reflects all incoming light. 182 00:06:50,050 --> 00:06:52,209 And so you can imagine that 183 00:06:52,210 --> 00:06:53,619 the person who is 184 00:06:54,970 --> 00:06:56,949 here with a low albedo will become very 185 00:06:56,950 --> 00:06:58,929 warm after some time and also start to 186 00:06:58,930 --> 00:07:01,329 radio off the radio out of heat. 187 00:07:01,330 --> 00:07:03,549 And you can imagine that the 188 00:07:03,550 --> 00:07:05,979 wavelength, they will radiate off 189 00:07:05,980 --> 00:07:07,429 if they didn't have internal energy, 190 00:07:07,430 --> 00:07:09,789 whatever will be different. 191 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,519 So Earth has an average of about, 192 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,139 oh point three, 30 percent of the 193 00:07:15,140 --> 00:07:16,549 radiation coming in from sun, from the 194 00:07:16,550 --> 00:07:18,799 sun is directly reflected 195 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:19,879 off. 196 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,009 And you can see here I put a green dot 197 00:07:22,010 --> 00:07:24,319 there and I put these green dots 198 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,779 are places where we have a chance 199 00:07:26,780 --> 00:07:29,029 to change parameters concerning 200 00:07:29,030 --> 00:07:30,169 the system. 201 00:07:30,170 --> 00:07:32,269 So if you see this green dot and if 202 00:07:32,270 --> 00:07:33,619 you don't see you just think about what 203 00:07:33,620 --> 00:07:35,749 should we do to change parameters 204 00:07:35,750 --> 00:07:38,029 of the system to to change what's 205 00:07:38,030 --> 00:07:40,069 going on. So he has one one chance. 206 00:07:40,070 --> 00:07:42,469 We have something 207 00:07:42,470 --> 00:07:44,549 that has high albedo on earth is 208 00:07:44,550 --> 00:07:46,609 snow. Fresh snow reflects about 90 209 00:07:46,610 --> 00:07:47,809 percent of incoming light. 210 00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:51,029 Something that is dark is 211 00:07:51,030 --> 00:07:53,129 the ocean, the ocean reflects 212 00:07:53,130 --> 00:07:55,619 only about 10 percent of incoming light. 213 00:07:55,620 --> 00:07:58,109 So you can imagine that if 214 00:07:58,110 --> 00:08:00,479 ice on the ocean goes away 215 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,579 and open seas there, 216 00:08:02,580 --> 00:08:05,099 you get a change in this reflected value. 217 00:08:05,100 --> 00:08:06,629 At the same time, you can just paint 218 00:08:06,630 --> 00:08:08,189 stuff white and you will also get a 219 00:08:08,190 --> 00:08:09,190 change. So. 220 00:08:10,750 --> 00:08:13,359 If we add this together, 221 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,459 we get a temperature of minus 15 222 00:08:15,460 --> 00:08:18,469 degrees on the planet. 223 00:08:18,470 --> 00:08:20,569 This is not true, you know this 224 00:08:20,570 --> 00:08:21,570 I'm happy it's not true. 225 00:08:22,660 --> 00:08:24,279 And the reason is that we have an 226 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:25,280 atmosphere. 227 00:08:26,540 --> 00:08:29,359 What does an atmosphere do? 228 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:30,769 It can interact with light. 229 00:08:30,770 --> 00:08:32,928 There's a lawyer that's been found by 230 00:08:32,929 --> 00:08:34,908 elaborate and fair to different people 231 00:08:34,909 --> 00:08:37,129 who found parts of it at different 232 00:08:37,130 --> 00:08:40,009 times, 1729, 233 00:08:40,010 --> 00:08:41,928 1852, as you can see. 234 00:08:41,929 --> 00:08:44,449 And it describes how light is absorbed 235 00:08:44,450 --> 00:08:46,849 in the gas or in a body. 236 00:08:46,850 --> 00:08:49,039 I put the formula here because it's very 237 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,349 easy and telling that there 238 00:08:51,350 --> 00:08:53,449 is an exponential decrease in the light. 239 00:08:53,450 --> 00:08:55,129 And it depends on three parameters. 240 00:08:55,130 --> 00:08:56,239 It depends on the distance. 241 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,299 The light travels in the gas 242 00:08:58,300 --> 00:09:00,499 well, it depends on the 243 00:09:00,500 --> 00:09:02,389 density of the gas or how much how many 244 00:09:02,390 --> 00:09:04,249 molecules of the gas, whether it's ROE 245 00:09:04,250 --> 00:09:06,829 and there's a parameter called Sigma, 246 00:09:06,830 --> 00:09:08,209 it's the absorption coefficient. 247 00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:09,529 And this is gas dependent. 248 00:09:10,790 --> 00:09:12,439 It's also constant, so it doesn't change 249 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,179 over time, it doesn't change change a 250 00:09:14,180 --> 00:09:16,159 little with pressure, with pressure and a 251 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:17,959 little with temperature, but not really. 252 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,699 And we measure this in lab. 253 00:09:19,700 --> 00:09:22,429 So this is a very well researched law. 254 00:09:22,430 --> 00:09:24,499 And you can also research your 255 00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:26,239 if you want or in the hackerspace or 256 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:27,259 whatever. It's really easy. 257 00:09:27,260 --> 00:09:29,449 So what 258 00:09:29,450 --> 00:09:30,739 are the consequences of this? 259 00:09:30,740 --> 00:09:33,709 I brought you a picture 260 00:09:33,710 --> 00:09:35,969 of Natu, you know, the 261 00:09:35,970 --> 00:09:37,340 diesel scandal, gas 262 00:09:38,430 --> 00:09:40,099 not very healthy, so don't breathe it in 263 00:09:40,100 --> 00:09:42,109 and you can see different concentrations 264 00:09:42,110 --> 00:09:44,779 here. We have almost nothing 265 00:09:44,780 --> 00:09:46,879 up to a very high concentration and you 266 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,579 can see that it gets darker and darker. 267 00:09:49,580 --> 00:09:51,709 I also put the absorption 268 00:09:51,710 --> 00:09:54,109 coefficient down there and I also 269 00:09:54,110 --> 00:09:56,419 painted with colors, the 270 00:09:56,420 --> 00:09:58,559 wavelengths you can see. 271 00:09:58,560 --> 00:10:00,059 As you can see, there's a lot of 272 00:10:00,060 --> 00:10:02,069 absorbtion going on in the blue wavefront 273 00:10:02,070 --> 00:10:04,679 way, fringe wavelength range 274 00:10:04,680 --> 00:10:06,329 and not a lot in the red wavelength 275 00:10:06,330 --> 00:10:08,489 range, and these two images are linked. 276 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:11,360 If you. 277 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,479 Had to guess from the plot which 278 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:15,480 color the gases. 279 00:10:17,390 --> 00:10:18,799 Or you should be able to do that now you 280 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,869 can say it's Redish because the red can 281 00:10:20,870 --> 00:10:21,870 pass through. 282 00:10:23,190 --> 00:10:25,259 So we 283 00:10:25,260 --> 00:10:26,459 have this effect in the atmosphere. 284 00:10:26,460 --> 00:10:28,829 We have gas that absorbs 285 00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:31,019 in the infrared, but not in 286 00:10:31,020 --> 00:10:32,020 the visible. 287 00:10:33,510 --> 00:10:35,519 Let's run our calculation again now we 288 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,799 have an atmosphere here, there's 100 289 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:39,840 percent of light coming in from the top. 290 00:10:41,660 --> 00:10:43,789 It goes down to the atmosphere, 30 291 00:10:43,790 --> 00:10:45,409 percent, as I said before, is already 292 00:10:45,410 --> 00:10:46,939 reflected back. 293 00:10:46,940 --> 00:10:49,339 So this does not concern us all unless 294 00:10:49,340 --> 00:10:50,480 we want to change it. But yeah, 295 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,079 and 47 percent are 296 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,999 absorbed by the ground. 297 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:57,499 The ground heats up. You can feel those 298 00:10:57,500 --> 00:10:59,509 if you put your hand on the stone when 299 00:10:59,510 --> 00:11:00,510 it's sunny. 300 00:11:01,860 --> 00:11:03,959 And the rest is already going into the 301 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:04,960 atmosphere. 302 00:11:07,540 --> 00:11:09,879 Now, what does the gas 303 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,669 actually do, as you can see, 304 00:11:12,670 --> 00:11:14,949 about 12 percent can make it through 305 00:11:14,950 --> 00:11:17,589 of the of infrared light, 306 00:11:17,590 --> 00:11:20,019 the light with a lower wavelength with 307 00:11:20,020 --> 00:11:23,079 a with a very long way French wavelength 308 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:24,080 and. 309 00:11:25,070 --> 00:11:27,229 It can go through, but 310 00:11:27,230 --> 00:11:29,359 a lot of it cannot go through, it 311 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:30,709 will be absorbed by the atmosphere 312 00:11:30,710 --> 00:11:33,199 immediately, so the lowest layer 313 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,030 of the earth heats up. 314 00:11:36,310 --> 00:11:38,409 It becomes warm as well, 315 00:11:38,410 --> 00:11:41,229 so it starts to radiate as well, 316 00:11:41,230 --> 00:11:42,189 depending on the temperature. 317 00:11:42,190 --> 00:11:44,499 It will radiate at different wavelength 318 00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:46,779 ranges and at different 319 00:11:46,780 --> 00:11:48,789 intensities, but it's still going to be 320 00:11:48,790 --> 00:11:51,099 in the absorption area. 321 00:11:51,100 --> 00:11:53,259 So at the wavelengths, the gas 322 00:11:53,260 --> 00:11:55,539 absorbs, it's also going to emit. 323 00:11:55,540 --> 00:11:56,979 I'm going to show you later. 324 00:11:56,980 --> 00:11:59,379 And this effect also starts 325 00:11:59,380 --> 00:12:00,399 to further layers. 326 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,379 So the next layer of the atmosphere will 327 00:12:02,380 --> 00:12:04,479 also absorb 328 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:05,619 some of the light coming from the 329 00:12:05,620 --> 00:12:07,599 downwards direction. 330 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:08,499 It will heat up. 331 00:12:08,500 --> 00:12:09,519 It will start to radiate. 332 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:10,720 This radiation is going. 333 00:12:11,990 --> 00:12:14,059 All directions so apart will 334 00:12:14,060 --> 00:12:16,169 go back down and in the end, you get 335 00:12:16,170 --> 00:12:18,379 a radiation level 336 00:12:18,380 --> 00:12:20,509 of about 97 percent of the 337 00:12:20,510 --> 00:12:22,669 incoming sunlight going back down. 338 00:12:22,670 --> 00:12:24,739 So about twice the level of the 339 00:12:24,740 --> 00:12:26,179 sunlight that reaches the ground 340 00:12:27,290 --> 00:12:29,119 is coming back down from the atmosphere 341 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:30,199 again. 342 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,479 And if you run the calculation on that, 343 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,129 you can just run the sums here. 344 00:12:34,130 --> 00:12:35,629 You can see that one hundred forty four 345 00:12:35,630 --> 00:12:37,699 percent of the lights are 346 00:12:37,700 --> 00:12:38,900 actually radiated out. 347 00:12:40,010 --> 00:12:41,899 So the. 348 00:12:43,780 --> 00:12:45,519 Black body temperature that you get at 349 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:47,619 the earth is higher 350 00:12:47,620 --> 00:12:49,019 than it would be without atmosphere. 351 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,909 We got about 15 degrees Celsius. 352 00:12:52,910 --> 00:12:55,099 This is the real temperature we have, 353 00:12:55,100 --> 00:12:56,809 so this is actually a very nice effect. 354 00:12:56,810 --> 00:12:58,519 We call this the greenhouse effect, the 355 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,589 natural greenhouse effect, and 356 00:13:00,590 --> 00:13:02,389 it's useful for life on Earth because it 357 00:13:02,390 --> 00:13:03,390 protects us. 358 00:13:04,370 --> 00:13:06,529 I can show you the same 359 00:13:06,530 --> 00:13:08,059 thing in Spectra. 360 00:13:08,060 --> 00:13:10,309 The top spectra shows 361 00:13:10,310 --> 00:13:13,279 the BlackBerry radiation of the ground. 362 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,739 So you can see it's very smooth. 363 00:13:15,740 --> 00:13:17,539 You can also run the calculation on that. 364 00:13:17,540 --> 00:13:19,819 You get the same plot in the next 365 00:13:19,820 --> 00:13:22,219 part, you get the downwards 366 00:13:22,220 --> 00:13:23,149 radiation. 367 00:13:23,150 --> 00:13:25,729 So the gas absorbs 368 00:13:25,730 --> 00:13:28,009 in the parts that are 369 00:13:28,010 --> 00:13:30,439 elevated here and, 370 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,749 uh, absorbs 371 00:13:32,750 --> 00:13:35,449 and heats up 372 00:13:35,450 --> 00:13:36,349 and emits again. 373 00:13:36,350 --> 00:13:38,209 So this coming down, this is what you can 374 00:13:38,210 --> 00:13:40,099 see if you if you measure the light 375 00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:41,419 coming down. 376 00:13:41,420 --> 00:13:44,419 And at the same time, there's 377 00:13:44,420 --> 00:13:45,799 a natural a sort of the difference 378 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,709 between the plots is 379 00:13:48,710 --> 00:13:50,779 the bottom part. 380 00:13:50,780 --> 00:13:52,309 And you can see that there's a window 381 00:13:52,310 --> 00:13:54,469 where the light can go out and 382 00:13:54,470 --> 00:13:56,719 parts where nothing, 383 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,429 almost nothing of the light makes it out. 384 00:14:00,180 --> 00:14:02,369 I also know well, the plot has 385 00:14:02,370 --> 00:14:04,619 marked the greenhouse gases that 386 00:14:04,620 --> 00:14:06,869 act here, you can see that a large one is 387 00:14:06,870 --> 00:14:08,999 water, H2O. 388 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,879 Ozone also plays a significant role here 389 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:13,949 and CO2 is a 390 00:14:13,950 --> 00:14:14,950 large part. 391 00:14:16,180 --> 00:14:17,889 So the question is, what happens if we 392 00:14:17,890 --> 00:14:19,720 change the concentrations of these gases? 393 00:14:22,690 --> 00:14:24,760 What happens, in fact, is that, 394 00:14:25,850 --> 00:14:26,850 oh, let me see. 395 00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:29,769 But this part here gets 396 00:14:29,770 --> 00:14:30,770 broader. 397 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,609 And this part here gets smaller. 398 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,549 So the outgoing radiation is 399 00:14:37,550 --> 00:14:38,550 less. 400 00:14:39,620 --> 00:14:41,779 So the ground heats up, it's a bit 401 00:14:41,780 --> 00:14:43,249 more complicated than that, of course, if 402 00:14:43,250 --> 00:14:44,599 you run the calculations, you get a lot 403 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:47,359 of changes in the vertical profile, 404 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:48,589 but that's the basics. 405 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,959 At the current level, we have about all 406 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,689 point eight watt per square meter 407 00:14:55,690 --> 00:14:57,429 of energy coming in, that's not going 408 00:14:57,430 --> 00:14:58,430 out. 409 00:15:00,650 --> 00:15:02,059 He is an advanced concept. 410 00:15:02,060 --> 00:15:03,740 I just wanted to show you briefly, 411 00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,099 it's also connected to the black body 412 00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:08,179 temperature. 413 00:15:08,180 --> 00:15:10,789 At the same time, it tells you 414 00:15:10,790 --> 00:15:12,169 about the black body temperature of 415 00:15:12,170 --> 00:15:14,599 different layers of the atmosphere. 416 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,239 You can see that in the window. 417 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,829 You can actually see the ground. 418 00:15:18,830 --> 00:15:20,509 The ground has a temperature of 15 419 00:15:20,510 --> 00:15:21,559 degrees. 420 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,689 And you can see in the 421 00:15:23,690 --> 00:15:25,999 and the outgoing radiation here, 422 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,819 the radiation you measure from space. 423 00:15:28,820 --> 00:15:31,069 You can see that you can see the 424 00:15:31,070 --> 00:15:33,319 the photons from the ground at 425 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,629 the same time in the water 426 00:15:35,630 --> 00:15:37,729 absorption areas, which 427 00:15:37,730 --> 00:15:39,979 are two here, you can see that it's 428 00:15:39,980 --> 00:15:42,289 about minus 30 degrees. 429 00:15:42,290 --> 00:15:44,419 This light comes from 430 00:15:44,420 --> 00:15:46,339 an area where the light the air is minus 431 00:15:46,340 --> 00:15:48,409 30 degrees. So in 432 00:15:48,410 --> 00:15:49,410 the stratosphere already. 433 00:15:52,100 --> 00:15:53,100 Maybe top of. 434 00:15:54,430 --> 00:15:56,589 Whatever, um, at the same time, 435 00:15:56,590 --> 00:15:58,509 you can see that ozone comes at minus 10 436 00:15:58,510 --> 00:16:00,669 degrees, that's the top 437 00:16:00,670 --> 00:16:01,689 of the stratosphere. 438 00:16:01,690 --> 00:16:03,759 So the top of the ozone layer 439 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:05,979 and we have CO2, 440 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:08,499 which comes from from a level of minus 55 441 00:16:08,500 --> 00:16:11,029 degrees. So you can see here which 442 00:16:11,030 --> 00:16:12,030 height. 443 00:16:12,500 --> 00:16:14,569 The light comes from and at 444 00:16:14,570 --> 00:16:16,939 which layer the air 445 00:16:16,940 --> 00:16:19,130 is transparent for this 446 00:16:20,210 --> 00:16:22,139 wavelength ranges. 447 00:16:22,140 --> 00:16:24,289 I'm sorry if this is a bit complicated, 448 00:16:24,290 --> 00:16:25,779 you can ask me later about details. 449 00:16:26,990 --> 00:16:29,059 Let's keep going with 450 00:16:29,060 --> 00:16:31,099 increase of gas in the atmosphere. 451 00:16:31,100 --> 00:16:32,450 This is the current plot. 452 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,359 I just pulled this from the Mauna Loa 453 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,779 Observatory page of Noires yesterday. 454 00:16:38,780 --> 00:16:40,879 Um, you can see that they 455 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,519 have a continuous record since is 1960s 456 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,339 to today and their 457 00:16:46,340 --> 00:16:48,499 current level in September was 458 00:16:48,500 --> 00:16:49,729 four and two p.m. 459 00:16:49,730 --> 00:16:50,730 parts per million. 460 00:16:51,890 --> 00:16:54,199 And you can see that is oscillating, 461 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,359 this is due to the fact that 462 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,699 the hemispheres have summers and winters 463 00:16:58,700 --> 00:17:01,219 and the North has a lot of plants, 464 00:17:01,220 --> 00:17:03,379 the south doesn't have a lot of 465 00:17:03,380 --> 00:17:04,759 ground, so it doesn't have so many 466 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,489 plants. And the plants operate 467 00:17:07,490 --> 00:17:08,868 more in summer and winter. 468 00:17:08,869 --> 00:17:11,118 So you can actually see the plant level, 469 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:12,139 the plant life here. 470 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,848 OK, so, um, 471 00:17:15,849 --> 00:17:16,869 what do we do with this? 472 00:17:20,740 --> 00:17:23,049 We can run a very simple calculation 473 00:17:23,050 --> 00:17:24,879 from what I showed you before, you know, 474 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,799 not everyone, everything you need to run 475 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:28,509 a very simple climate model. 476 00:17:28,510 --> 00:17:31,239 If we increase the CO2 level twice, 477 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,849 you can get a temperature increase of 478 00:17:33,850 --> 00:17:35,380 one point two degrees Celsius. 479 00:17:37,510 --> 00:17:39,639 Now, if you compare that 480 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,819 to the increase we had already back from 481 00:17:42,820 --> 00:17:44,919 the past, you can 482 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:46,629 see that there's a mismatch there. 483 00:17:46,630 --> 00:17:48,429 So what is happening is that there's a 484 00:17:48,430 --> 00:17:50,599 lot of feedback mechanisms. 485 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,359 We have energy coming in, the energy 486 00:17:53,360 --> 00:17:55,429 can melt, water can 487 00:17:55,430 --> 00:17:57,439 melt, ice, changed the ability of the 488 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,719 earth, it can generate 489 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,849 more clouds. There's more energy, more 490 00:18:01,850 --> 00:18:04,039 water can be 491 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:05,040 evaporated. 492 00:18:06,230 --> 00:18:08,059 More clout can be generated, it changes 493 00:18:08,060 --> 00:18:10,369 the albedo or changes the outgoing 494 00:18:10,370 --> 00:18:11,370 energy. 495 00:18:12,230 --> 00:18:14,569 Um, level and 496 00:18:14,570 --> 00:18:15,979 the temperature gradient change, there's 497 00:18:15,980 --> 00:18:18,229 a lot of feedback mechanisms and 498 00:18:18,230 --> 00:18:20,419 we come to a result 499 00:18:20,420 --> 00:18:22,609 of about, oh, one point five to 500 00:18:22,610 --> 00:18:25,069 four point five degrees Celsius 501 00:18:25,070 --> 00:18:26,179 from this. 502 00:18:26,180 --> 00:18:28,220 But you see there's an error range there. 503 00:18:30,700 --> 00:18:32,769 We'll talk about that later. 504 00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:34,479 We call this concept climate sensitivity, 505 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,069 it just says how the climate system 506 00:18:36,070 --> 00:18:38,559 reacts to a doubling of the CO2 content. 507 00:18:42,260 --> 00:18:43,879 So the question is, we have too much 508 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,639 energy going in now because 509 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:47,640 the sun. 510 00:18:49,750 --> 00:18:51,729 Gave us energy and it's not going out 511 00:18:51,730 --> 00:18:53,679 anymore because there's a barrier there 512 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,119 now. So where did it go so far? 513 00:18:55,120 --> 00:18:57,129 I already told you that there is a plus 514 00:18:57,130 --> 00:18:59,319 of O point eight 515 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,689 watt per square meter coming 516 00:19:01,690 --> 00:19:04,119 in, but we don't have a heating 517 00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:05,919 that corresponds to this value. 518 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,869 So where did the energy go? 519 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,419 So far, I talked about 520 00:19:11,420 --> 00:19:13,519 basic laws, basic physics 521 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,169 laws you can easily measure in your own 522 00:19:15,170 --> 00:19:17,029 lab that physics students all over the 523 00:19:17,030 --> 00:19:18,199 world measure every year. 524 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,899 And so far I didn't find a mistake. 525 00:19:20,900 --> 00:19:23,629 Now I'm going to talk about 526 00:19:23,630 --> 00:19:25,819 measurements that. 527 00:19:27,170 --> 00:19:29,329 Fit together with a result that we 528 00:19:29,330 --> 00:19:31,489 have an energy overlap 529 00:19:31,490 --> 00:19:33,109 energy over too much energy. 530 00:19:34,130 --> 00:19:36,299 So where does the energy go? 531 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,429 So far it seems to go into the ocean. 532 00:19:40,430 --> 00:19:42,889 About 93 percent 533 00:19:42,890 --> 00:19:45,109 of the energy go so far went into 534 00:19:45,110 --> 00:19:46,309 the ocean. 535 00:19:46,310 --> 00:19:48,709 This plot shows you a few data sets 536 00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:50,759 that all have the same. 537 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:52,859 A conclusion, the 538 00:19:52,860 --> 00:19:54,929 upper layer of the ocean that's 539 00:19:54,930 --> 00:19:57,849 top part warms up. 540 00:19:57,850 --> 00:20:00,459 The lower layer, the deep ocean 541 00:20:00,460 --> 00:20:02,919 also warms up, that's the lower part, 542 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,190 so this is where the energy goes so far. 543 00:20:06,870 --> 00:20:08,449 He is another place where the energy 544 00:20:08,450 --> 00:20:11,119 goes, it's 545 00:20:11,120 --> 00:20:14,239 a plot that shows the ice extent 546 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,700 on the Arctic on the top. 547 00:20:18,290 --> 00:20:20,359 In an annual way, and the 548 00:20:20,360 --> 00:20:21,589 lower part shows it 549 00:20:22,790 --> 00:20:24,979 is all for different months 550 00:20:24,980 --> 00:20:26,899 and it's different data sets, different 551 00:20:26,900 --> 00:20:28,369 colors, different data sets, and you can 552 00:20:28,370 --> 00:20:30,229 see they all agree it's going down. 553 00:20:30,230 --> 00:20:32,539 So here's another sink of energy for us. 554 00:20:34,260 --> 00:20:35,939 And if we add these together, 555 00:20:37,410 --> 00:20:39,629 there's the 556 00:20:39,630 --> 00:20:41,759 expansion of water due to heat, 557 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,699 you know, things that warm up expand 558 00:20:44,700 --> 00:20:46,799 and there's the expansion 559 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,899 of water content due 560 00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:49,900 to ice melting. 561 00:20:50,820 --> 00:20:52,239 That's the lower two curves. 562 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:53,819 And if you add them together, they feel 563 00:20:53,820 --> 00:20:54,959 fit very nicely 564 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,679 to the curve that shows 565 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,540 the measured increase in sea level. 566 00:21:02,090 --> 00:21:05,449 So this follows from very basic physics, 567 00:21:05,450 --> 00:21:06,829 this is where the energy is going. 568 00:21:08,900 --> 00:21:11,059 If you don't if you're not convinced 569 00:21:11,060 --> 00:21:13,409 by this yet, I have more plots, 570 00:21:13,410 --> 00:21:15,619 I'm not going to discuss these details. 571 00:21:15,620 --> 00:21:17,689 There's a few plots here that correspond 572 00:21:17,690 --> 00:21:18,799 to air temperatures. 573 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,929 I marked them with air and there's 574 00:21:20,930 --> 00:21:23,239 a few plots that are 575 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,249 corresponding to see temperatures and sea 576 00:21:25,250 --> 00:21:26,269 ice. 577 00:21:26,270 --> 00:21:28,489 Sea temperatures, sea content 578 00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:30,139 and snow and ice are also there. 579 00:21:30,140 --> 00:21:32,119 And you can see they all agree we have 580 00:21:32,120 --> 00:21:33,120 two data sets 581 00:21:34,220 --> 00:21:36,139 in minimum and up to seven data sets 582 00:21:36,140 --> 00:21:37,189 here. They all agree. 583 00:21:37,190 --> 00:21:40,069 So the data 584 00:21:40,070 --> 00:21:41,070 is also there. 585 00:21:42,290 --> 00:21:44,719 So what we know so far, the basic 586 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,059 physics tells us that 587 00:21:47,060 --> 00:21:48,919 an increase in any of the greenhouse 588 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,509 gases will lead to an increase in 589 00:21:50,510 --> 00:21:51,619 temperature. 590 00:21:51,620 --> 00:21:53,659 There's feedback mechanisms and we don't 591 00:21:53,660 --> 00:21:55,759 know exactly 592 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,889 beriberi exactly what that lead 593 00:21:57,890 --> 00:21:59,509 to, because there's an error range on the 594 00:21:59,510 --> 00:22:00,530 climate sensitivity. 595 00:22:01,580 --> 00:22:03,469 And we see that the data shows an 596 00:22:03,470 --> 00:22:05,569 increase in energy uptake 597 00:22:05,570 --> 00:22:06,570 in the system. 598 00:22:08,550 --> 00:22:09,960 Where do we go from here? 599 00:22:11,550 --> 00:22:14,099 We have to run models, 600 00:22:14,100 --> 00:22:16,289 so what we do is we know we 601 00:22:16,290 --> 00:22:17,609 use these basic physics laws. 602 00:22:19,570 --> 00:22:21,699 We parameterize 603 00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:24,249 the earth and we try to calculate 604 00:22:24,250 --> 00:22:25,689 the response of the system. 605 00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:28,029 Now, I only discussed very, very basic 606 00:22:28,030 --> 00:22:30,489 things here and there's a lot more 607 00:22:30,490 --> 00:22:32,709 impact factors on the climate. 608 00:22:32,710 --> 00:22:34,029 You can talk to me later if you want to 609 00:22:34,030 --> 00:22:34,539 discuss this. 610 00:22:34,540 --> 00:22:35,889 No problem. 611 00:22:35,890 --> 00:22:37,719 The main ones here are aerosols. 612 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,759 So particles in the air that shield the 613 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,859 heat while the incoming light a 614 00:22:41,860 --> 00:22:44,409 little. There's clouds that can change 615 00:22:44,410 --> 00:22:46,479 this ozone and the chemistry that 616 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,699 also is a climate gas and 617 00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:50,919 can also shield 618 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,139 light and of course, the emissions 619 00:22:53,140 --> 00:22:55,569 of greenhouse gases and aerosols, 620 00:22:55,570 --> 00:22:57,730 which are also not known for the future. 621 00:22:58,870 --> 00:22:59,769 A few more are there. 622 00:22:59,770 --> 00:23:00,969 So it's a complex system. 623 00:23:00,970 --> 00:23:02,140 We're trying to model this, 624 00:23:03,190 --> 00:23:05,259 but some 625 00:23:05,260 --> 00:23:06,399 things are still unknown. 626 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,049 Some things might be unknowable because 627 00:23:08,050 --> 00:23:10,539 we're talking about a chaotic system 628 00:23:10,540 --> 00:23:11,540 here. 629 00:23:14,420 --> 00:23:17,449 It's clear, however, that we have 630 00:23:17,450 --> 00:23:20,719 this energy energy surplus 631 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,210 and that it's going somewhere, 632 00:23:23,420 --> 00:23:25,609 so there will be 633 00:23:25,610 --> 00:23:27,439 consequences of this physical 634 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,719 consequences and physical consequences 635 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,789 also mean that there will be consequences 636 00:23:31,790 --> 00:23:32,790 for people on Earth. 637 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,139 And my colleague will now 638 00:23:36,140 --> 00:23:37,760 my colleague will now 639 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,549 tell you more about that. 640 00:23:40,550 --> 00:23:42,469 So if you have any questions about the 641 00:23:42,470 --> 00:23:45,049 climate system and the basic physics 642 00:23:46,190 --> 00:23:48,889 or the data, just come talk to me. 643 00:23:48,890 --> 00:23:50,809 You can also read the IPCC report. 644 00:23:50,810 --> 00:23:52,969 It has a lot of plots, a lot 645 00:23:52,970 --> 00:23:54,890 of plots. And you can 646 00:23:56,060 --> 00:23:57,499 learn anything you want to know about the 647 00:23:57,500 --> 00:23:59,029 data from there also. 648 00:23:59,030 --> 00:24:00,649 So just check it out. 649 00:24:00,650 --> 00:24:01,650 Thank you. 650 00:24:10,300 --> 00:24:11,300 OK, 651 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,499 since we know fairly well about 652 00:24:15,500 --> 00:24:17,169 the greenhouse effect 653 00:24:18,550 --> 00:24:20,949 and well, with some confidence, 654 00:24:20,950 --> 00:24:23,529 we can also project the temperature 655 00:24:23,530 --> 00:24:24,530 on average 656 00:24:25,810 --> 00:24:27,859 for the next coming decades. 657 00:24:27,860 --> 00:24:29,440 Of course, that depends on how we 658 00:24:30,790 --> 00:24:33,099 emit further greenhouse 659 00:24:33,100 --> 00:24:35,409 gases. So if we continue emitting, 660 00:24:35,410 --> 00:24:37,809 we'll probably end up by 661 00:24:37,810 --> 00:24:40,119 at about four additional 662 00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:42,159 degrees Celsius. 663 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,379 If we really manage to 664 00:24:44,380 --> 00:24:47,499 to mitigate a lot of our emissions, 665 00:24:47,500 --> 00:24:49,569 we might even manage to get 666 00:24:49,570 --> 00:24:51,459 below two degrees. 667 00:24:51,460 --> 00:24:53,319 Well, but what does that mean? 668 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,599 Well, one of the most 669 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,909 well known impacts of climate change is 670 00:24:57,910 --> 00:24:59,109 sea level rise. 671 00:24:59,110 --> 00:25:01,359 Like I just said, the mechanism there is. 672 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,589 Not very simple, but at least 673 00:25:05,590 --> 00:25:07,779 easy to understand, because when 674 00:25:07,780 --> 00:25:09,909 oceans heat up, they expand, that 675 00:25:09,910 --> 00:25:11,889 gives a big contribution to sea level 676 00:25:11,890 --> 00:25:12,939 rise. 677 00:25:12,940 --> 00:25:14,889 And of course, as the temperature 678 00:25:14,890 --> 00:25:17,019 increases, we'll melt snow 679 00:25:17,020 --> 00:25:19,119 and ice, especially in the 680 00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:21,339 glaciers on Greenland and 681 00:25:21,340 --> 00:25:22,779 Antarctica. 682 00:25:22,780 --> 00:25:25,479 So knowing the temperature, 683 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,029 we can also project 684 00:25:28,030 --> 00:25:29,740 quite well the 685 00:25:30,910 --> 00:25:33,099 sea level rise that we have 686 00:25:33,100 --> 00:25:35,139 to expect in the coming decades until the 687 00:25:35,140 --> 00:25:36,249 end of the century. 688 00:25:36,250 --> 00:25:38,739 And we might end up at one 689 00:25:38,740 --> 00:25:40,539 meter sea level rise on average 690 00:25:41,740 --> 00:25:44,199 or maybe managed below that. 691 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,029 But all these things that we set in 692 00:25:46,030 --> 00:25:48,789 motion, they're the melting of the ISIS 693 00:25:48,790 --> 00:25:51,699 is actually quite a slow 694 00:25:51,700 --> 00:25:52,659 process. 695 00:25:52,660 --> 00:25:55,089 So even after 2100, even after 696 00:25:55,090 --> 00:25:57,759 we have emitted even maybe after 697 00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,319 humanity has ceased to exist, 698 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,219 the ice is still melting and several 699 00:26:03,220 --> 00:26:05,019 additional meters of sea level rise are 700 00:26:05,020 --> 00:26:07,170 expected to to um. 701 00:26:08,290 --> 00:26:09,739 Yeah. To be there. 702 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,049 Well, OK. 703 00:26:12,050 --> 00:26:13,050 Sea level rise 704 00:26:14,890 --> 00:26:17,019 probably affects coasts and 705 00:26:17,020 --> 00:26:19,089 islands, but what does 706 00:26:19,090 --> 00:26:21,549 the warming itself do with the economy? 707 00:26:21,550 --> 00:26:24,939 How does the economy react on 708 00:26:24,940 --> 00:26:26,349 climate change? 709 00:26:26,350 --> 00:26:27,759 Of course, that's a very difficult 710 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,289 question to answer. 711 00:26:29,290 --> 00:26:31,899 But we can start with 712 00:26:31,900 --> 00:26:34,279 kind of simple observations. 713 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,459 So this is from a fairly 714 00:26:36,460 --> 00:26:38,799 recent study by scientists 715 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,839 in California who 716 00:26:42,250 --> 00:26:44,259 looked up, who looked at the. 717 00:26:47,030 --> 00:26:49,099 Well, we looked at the 718 00:26:49,100 --> 00:26:51,199 change in GDP 719 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,699 per capita, that is kind of like the 720 00:26:52,700 --> 00:26:54,589 average income a person has in the 721 00:26:54,590 --> 00:26:57,379 country, um, 722 00:26:57,380 --> 00:26:59,749 in the last 50 decades and tried 723 00:26:59,750 --> 00:27:01,849 to find a relation to the 724 00:27:01,850 --> 00:27:04,069 annual average temperature there. 725 00:27:04,070 --> 00:27:06,709 So in there, they account, of course, for 726 00:27:06,710 --> 00:27:08,779 specific variables that the countries 727 00:27:08,780 --> 00:27:11,059 have, if they're poor, if they're rich 728 00:27:11,060 --> 00:27:12,439 to begin with. 729 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,509 And, well, they find this kind of 730 00:27:14,510 --> 00:27:16,909 you shaped relationship 731 00:27:16,910 --> 00:27:18,439 between those two. 732 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,509 So what OK, if we know the 733 00:27:20,510 --> 00:27:23,299 annual average temperature, how does 734 00:27:23,300 --> 00:27:25,069 that affects the the the the 735 00:27:26,390 --> 00:27:27,650 the GDP per capita? 736 00:27:29,330 --> 00:27:31,009 OK, let's try to extrapolate that. 737 00:27:32,540 --> 00:27:34,399 And if we extrapolate that, they find 738 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,309 that, well, regions that are 739 00:27:37,310 --> 00:27:39,559 already warm, kind of like 740 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,499 beyond the curve, 741 00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:44,629 even go down the slope when 742 00:27:44,630 --> 00:27:47,059 additional warming occurs and colder 743 00:27:47,060 --> 00:27:49,189 countries might actually benefit because 744 00:27:49,190 --> 00:27:51,439 they get up the curve. 745 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,539 But this is a fairly simple 746 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,719 econometric model. 747 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,059 So it just accounts for the direct 748 00:27:59,060 --> 00:28:01,219 impact of the temperature on economic 749 00:28:01,220 --> 00:28:02,179 activity. 750 00:28:02,180 --> 00:28:04,159 And if you can really extrapolate that on 751 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,079 the climate change, we don't know yet. 752 00:28:07,430 --> 00:28:09,619 Another very important number 753 00:28:09,620 --> 00:28:12,079 that is discussed in 754 00:28:13,250 --> 00:28:15,319 climate economics is the 755 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:16,969 so-called so-called social cost of 756 00:28:16,970 --> 00:28:19,789 carbon, because we might ask, 757 00:28:19,790 --> 00:28:21,859 well, if you emit an 758 00:28:21,860 --> 00:28:24,049 additional ton of CO2 or 759 00:28:24,050 --> 00:28:26,329 another greenhouse gas, 760 00:28:26,330 --> 00:28:27,739 what damage does that 761 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,200 does that mean along the roads? 762 00:28:33,590 --> 00:28:35,809 So if you think of 763 00:28:35,810 --> 00:28:38,149 a simple coupling of economic 764 00:28:38,150 --> 00:28:40,789 and the climate model, um, 765 00:28:40,790 --> 00:28:42,949 you can say that, OK, the economy 766 00:28:42,950 --> 00:28:46,369 produces that leads to emissions. 767 00:28:46,370 --> 00:28:48,139 The emissions in the climate system lead 768 00:28:48,140 --> 00:28:50,629 to to to 769 00:28:50,630 --> 00:28:51,919 temperature change. 770 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,049 And similar to the 771 00:28:54,050 --> 00:28:56,629 to the relationship I just showed you, 772 00:28:56,630 --> 00:28:57,630 the 773 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,549 average temperature change might 774 00:29:01,550 --> 00:29:02,929 come with a damage. 775 00:29:02,930 --> 00:29:04,789 So we put in there a simple damage 776 00:29:04,790 --> 00:29:07,069 function that gives us, 777 00:29:07,070 --> 00:29:09,709 depending on the additional temperature, 778 00:29:09,710 --> 00:29:11,789 additional damages on the economy. 779 00:29:11,790 --> 00:29:13,669 We can run that in the model. 780 00:29:13,670 --> 00:29:16,009 And then we ask, well, 781 00:29:16,010 --> 00:29:18,439 let's put one additional tonne 782 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,520 of CO2 in there. 783 00:29:21,650 --> 00:29:24,589 How many damages do we get additionally 784 00:29:24,590 --> 00:29:25,590 along the road 785 00:29:26,780 --> 00:29:29,359 in a formal way that looks like that. 786 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,309 So if emit 787 00:29:33,140 --> 00:29:34,880 an amount of carbon 788 00:29:35,900 --> 00:29:37,609 at the at you know, 789 00:29:39,260 --> 00:29:40,729 the temperature reacts. 790 00:29:40,730 --> 00:29:43,129 So this relationship is given by the 791 00:29:43,130 --> 00:29:44,380 climate model in the model. 792 00:29:46,070 --> 00:29:48,319 This temperature change then leads to 793 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,179 a change in climate damages. 794 00:29:50,180 --> 00:29:51,800 This is given by the damage function. 795 00:29:53,170 --> 00:29:55,389 And then we just sum up all these damages 796 00:29:55,390 --> 00:29:57,579 that occur along the road 797 00:29:57,580 --> 00:29:59,829 due to this carbon emission and 798 00:29:59,830 --> 00:30:02,049 summed it up, but. 799 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,159 What is done in economics 800 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,529 on very common in there is 801 00:30:09,530 --> 00:30:11,629 discounting that it's just basically 802 00:30:11,630 --> 00:30:13,819 because of the fact if I offer you 803 00:30:13,820 --> 00:30:16,639 10 euros in a year, 804 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,889 you'll probably prefer me to 805 00:30:18,890 --> 00:30:20,899 offer you 10 years for tomorrow. 806 00:30:20,900 --> 00:30:23,149 So you value these 10 euros 807 00:30:23,150 --> 00:30:26,059 tomorrow, more than those in a year. 808 00:30:26,060 --> 00:30:28,309 This is so this devaluation 809 00:30:28,310 --> 00:30:30,949 of the future in comparison 810 00:30:30,950 --> 00:30:33,019 to the present is given by the social 811 00:30:33,020 --> 00:30:34,020 discount rate. 812 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,159 How does it look like if you run this 813 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,539 kind of model? 814 00:30:38,540 --> 00:30:39,540 Well. 815 00:30:41,310 --> 00:30:44,039 Depending on the 816 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,959 on the year and the emissions so far in 817 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,329 the model, we'll get some damage. 818 00:30:48,330 --> 00:30:50,489 This is the famous 819 00:30:50,490 --> 00:30:53,159 model. It's actually quite simple 820 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,589 and we are currently 821 00:30:55,590 --> 00:30:57,239 trying to make that more accessible for 822 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,429 people who know Python to 823 00:30:59,430 --> 00:31:00,430 play around with that. 824 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:02,560 Um. 825 00:31:03,710 --> 00:31:05,779 We can start with a social discussion in 826 00:31:05,780 --> 00:31:07,909 here, which is normally used with one 827 00:31:07,910 --> 00:31:10,489 point five percent in that model, 828 00:31:10,490 --> 00:31:12,769 so that means you kind of gray 829 00:31:12,770 --> 00:31:15,139 out the future in a way from the symbolic 830 00:31:15,140 --> 00:31:16,579 point of view. 831 00:31:16,580 --> 00:31:18,619 So we could care more about the damages 832 00:31:18,620 --> 00:31:20,209 here than here. 833 00:31:20,210 --> 00:31:21,769 But if you increase the social discount 834 00:31:21,770 --> 00:31:24,049 rate these 835 00:31:24,050 --> 00:31:26,179 going out because more and 836 00:31:26,180 --> 00:31:27,389 more into the present. 837 00:31:27,390 --> 00:31:29,179 So we don't really actually with seven 838 00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:30,529 percent social discount rate, we don't 839 00:31:30,530 --> 00:31:32,749 really very much care about the 840 00:31:32,750 --> 00:31:35,299 end of the century, but more about the 841 00:31:35,300 --> 00:31:37,299 few, one or two decades to come. 842 00:31:41,070 --> 00:31:42,809 And why is that important? 843 00:31:42,810 --> 00:31:45,389 It is very important because 844 00:31:45,390 --> 00:31:48,659 these these kinds of models 845 00:31:48,660 --> 00:31:50,909 are very, very sensitive 846 00:31:50,910 --> 00:31:53,729 to the social discount rate because, 847 00:31:53,730 --> 00:31:55,799 well, if you don't value the 848 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,679 damages along the road 849 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,329 as much as the damages tomorrow, 850 00:32:01,350 --> 00:32:03,509 of course, we'll have less damages 851 00:32:03,510 --> 00:32:05,879 overall and we probably don't care 852 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:06,880 so much. 853 00:32:10,770 --> 00:32:12,929 About the overall social cost of carbon. 854 00:32:12,930 --> 00:32:14,999 So if you stick with one point 855 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,649 five percent, this country to start with 856 00:32:16,650 --> 00:32:18,929 20 dollars per tonne and 857 00:32:18,930 --> 00:32:20,999 up to over 100 in two thousand and one 858 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:22,000 hundred. 859 00:32:24,300 --> 00:32:26,579 The peculiar thing about that is that 860 00:32:26,580 --> 00:32:28,859 the US government actually 861 00:32:28,860 --> 00:32:30,929 uses these kinds of numbers 862 00:32:30,930 --> 00:32:33,599 because in the 1980s they established 863 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,939 a law demanding all 864 00:32:35,940 --> 00:32:38,189 federal agencies to make a cost 865 00:32:38,190 --> 00:32:40,769 benefit analysis of their actions. 866 00:32:40,770 --> 00:32:42,839 And if those involve carbon 867 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,729 emissions in a way, they have to take 868 00:32:44,730 --> 00:32:46,799 into account the social cost of carbon. 869 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,379 So it's a very political no in that way. 870 00:32:49,380 --> 00:32:51,479 And the 871 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,489 Obama administration. 872 00:32:53,490 --> 00:32:55,649 Used a social discount rate, which is 873 00:32:55,650 --> 00:32:57,779 more like three percent, and 874 00:32:57,780 --> 00:32:59,909 came up with lots of 875 00:32:59,910 --> 00:33:02,249 models, an average around 876 00:33:02,250 --> 00:33:04,709 45 dollars per ton. 877 00:33:04,710 --> 00:33:07,289 Now, what the Trump administration, 878 00:33:07,290 --> 00:33:09,479 which has kind of a different 879 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,639 goal there, decided 880 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,459 to have a socialist goal of seven percent 881 00:33:14,460 --> 00:33:16,679 and only look at damages 882 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,199 in the US and not on the whole globe. 883 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,269 So they come up with only a couple 884 00:33:21,270 --> 00:33:22,270 of dollars per ton. 885 00:33:23,140 --> 00:33:24,759 So in the end, this kind of discussion is 886 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,009 still ongoing and very much comes 887 00:33:27,010 --> 00:33:29,229 down to an ethical question, the ethical, 888 00:33:29,230 --> 00:33:31,719 ethical question of how 889 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,849 much do we evaluate the 890 00:33:33,850 --> 00:33:36,309 damages that future generations 891 00:33:36,310 --> 00:33:38,589 will have to cope with in comparison 892 00:33:38,590 --> 00:33:40,719 to the damages that we have to cope with? 893 00:33:42,130 --> 00:33:43,569 OK, still, this is 894 00:33:44,830 --> 00:33:47,019 very simple economic model and with 895 00:33:47,020 --> 00:33:49,449 very simple climate model in there, 896 00:33:49,450 --> 00:33:51,219 so totally neglects another very 897 00:33:51,220 --> 00:33:53,349 important kinds of impacts and those are 898 00:33:53,350 --> 00:33:54,400 extreme weather events. 899 00:33:57,940 --> 00:33:59,589 Extreme weather events are much more 900 00:33:59,590 --> 00:34:01,539 difficult, of course, to model in 901 00:34:01,540 --> 00:34:04,029 comparison to looking at these 902 00:34:04,030 --> 00:34:05,790 temperature increases on average, 903 00:34:07,030 --> 00:34:08,030 but. 904 00:34:08,639 --> 00:34:10,109 So the discussion, for example, for 905 00:34:10,110 --> 00:34:11,999 Harrigan's is still going on if they get 906 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,459 more frequent or more intense, but 907 00:34:14,460 --> 00:34:16,859 as Katya explained to you, 908 00:34:16,860 --> 00:34:18,359 due to climate change, we will have more 909 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,309 energy and the whole earth system. 910 00:34:20,310 --> 00:34:22,499 And so we will probably get also more 911 00:34:22,500 --> 00:34:23,968 energy in the hurricanes, especially 912 00:34:23,969 --> 00:34:26,549 since they feed from the from the 913 00:34:26,550 --> 00:34:28,919 what? The heat of the water under 914 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:29,939 there. 915 00:34:29,940 --> 00:34:32,759 And as well, they need 916 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,009 a certain temperature to exist on the 917 00:34:35,010 --> 00:34:36,569 ocean surface. 918 00:34:36,570 --> 00:34:39,419 So if the if 919 00:34:39,420 --> 00:34:41,698 the oceans warm, they might even cover 920 00:34:41,699 --> 00:34:42,839 a larger area. 921 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,968 So just as an anecdote, in the 922 00:34:44,969 --> 00:34:47,189 last hurricane season, the Hurricane 923 00:34:47,190 --> 00:34:48,190 Ophelia 924 00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:52,529 reached Europe and thus really got 925 00:34:52,530 --> 00:34:54,718 off the charts of the 926 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,239 grids that the US Hurricane 927 00:34:57,240 --> 00:34:58,240 Center uses. 928 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,759 Well, you probably also heard about other 929 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,769 kinds of impacts, which are floods and 930 00:35:05,770 --> 00:35:07,719 droughts and also here. 931 00:35:08,830 --> 00:35:11,099 Um, the. 932 00:35:11,100 --> 00:35:13,259 Basic physics at least tells us 933 00:35:13,260 --> 00:35:14,639 that if 934 00:35:15,810 --> 00:35:18,749 air warms, it can hold more moisture 935 00:35:18,750 --> 00:35:20,969 and so wet regions 936 00:35:20,970 --> 00:35:23,489 probably also get even wetter. 937 00:35:23,490 --> 00:35:25,649 On the other hand, hot and dry 938 00:35:25,650 --> 00:35:27,899 regions warming 939 00:35:27,900 --> 00:35:29,489 probably also get drier. 940 00:35:31,890 --> 00:35:33,659 What does that mean for society? 941 00:35:33,660 --> 00:35:36,359 Well, indirect effects on society 942 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,759 are displacement and migration. 943 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,920 So just as an example, in 2015. 944 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,979 Weather related events alone 945 00:35:44,980 --> 00:35:47,079 displaced 15 million people across 946 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,449 the globe, displacing means, 947 00:35:49,450 --> 00:35:52,609 well, they might have to move. 948 00:35:52,610 --> 00:35:54,679 Well, to their neighbors, 949 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,269 or they might have to move to the next 950 00:35:56,270 --> 00:35:58,039 village or they might even have to move 951 00:35:58,040 --> 00:35:59,040 across borders. 952 00:36:00,570 --> 00:36:02,699 All in all, we know that these 953 00:36:02,700 --> 00:36:04,439 kinds of impacts and these changes in the 954 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,209 climate system will put. 955 00:36:07,270 --> 00:36:09,249 The societies on Earth on the additional 956 00:36:09,250 --> 00:36:11,349 pressure, so. 957 00:36:13,430 --> 00:36:15,619 Societies that are already 958 00:36:15,620 --> 00:36:18,049 prone to ethnic 959 00:36:18,050 --> 00:36:20,389 riots, for example, or or or 960 00:36:20,390 --> 00:36:22,759 are not very stable in their political 961 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,369 system, probably 962 00:36:25,370 --> 00:36:26,370 are also. 963 00:36:27,430 --> 00:36:29,739 Going to experience more conflict, 964 00:36:29,740 --> 00:36:32,679 but this discussion of the relationship 965 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,169 to climate change is still ongoing, but 966 00:36:35,170 --> 00:36:37,239 at least we know the pressure on these 967 00:36:37,240 --> 00:36:38,760 societies is going to increase. 968 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,069 Well, and we might say, OK, why 969 00:36:42,070 --> 00:36:44,159 do we care? Why do we care in Europe? 970 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,679 You might be able to cope with 971 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,029 with floods because we are rich 972 00:36:49,030 --> 00:36:51,209 in comparison to the rest of the world. 973 00:36:51,210 --> 00:36:53,560 Um, well, 974 00:36:54,820 --> 00:36:57,069 the world is increasingly interconnected 975 00:36:57,070 --> 00:36:58,269 economically. 976 00:36:58,270 --> 00:37:01,149 So supply chains of corporations 977 00:37:01,150 --> 00:37:03,549 nowadays, nowadays across 978 00:37:03,550 --> 00:37:05,649 several countries and our trade 979 00:37:05,650 --> 00:37:07,929 relations get stronger and stronger. 980 00:37:07,930 --> 00:37:10,449 So even if there isn't 981 00:37:10,450 --> 00:37:12,609 an event in 982 00:37:12,610 --> 00:37:14,619 Bangladesh happening, for example, we 983 00:37:14,620 --> 00:37:17,709 probably experience some 984 00:37:17,710 --> 00:37:20,049 effects of that down the road that might 985 00:37:20,050 --> 00:37:22,209 go from price changes, but also to 986 00:37:22,210 --> 00:37:23,329 supply failures. 987 00:37:23,330 --> 00:37:25,270 So we will also suffer from damages. 988 00:37:36,260 --> 00:37:37,260 Just. 989 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,200 Not 990 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:44,399 right now. 991 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:45,589 OK, you can hear me great. 992 00:37:45,590 --> 00:37:48,509 Um, OK, so 993 00:37:48,510 --> 00:37:50,849 next, um, let's have a look 994 00:37:50,850 --> 00:37:52,949 at, um, 995 00:37:52,950 --> 00:37:53,939 global emissions. 996 00:37:53,940 --> 00:37:56,129 So this is, um, global 997 00:37:56,130 --> 00:37:58,199 greenhouse gases. Over time, 998 00:37:58,200 --> 00:37:59,819 the red line. 999 00:37:59,820 --> 00:38:01,889 And yeah, we can see that 1000 00:38:01,890 --> 00:38:03,959 clearly. They have been more or less 1001 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,659 steadily rising over the past decades. 1002 00:38:06,660 --> 00:38:08,819 And Gray, we can 1003 00:38:08,820 --> 00:38:11,309 see the range of projected emissions 1004 00:38:11,310 --> 00:38:12,779 from the climate action plans of 1005 00:38:12,780 --> 00:38:14,219 countries. 1006 00:38:14,220 --> 00:38:16,799 So this climate action plans 1007 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,469 are nationally determined, contributions, 1008 00:38:19,470 --> 00:38:21,149 uh, short. 1009 00:38:21,150 --> 00:38:22,919 And he sees a part of the Paris Agreement 1010 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,119 process. 1011 00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,249 And each country individually determines 1012 00:38:26,250 --> 00:38:28,229 what they want to do, um, to reduce their 1013 00:38:28,230 --> 00:38:29,219 emissions. 1014 00:38:29,220 --> 00:38:30,989 And the range is so wide because each 1015 00:38:30,990 --> 00:38:33,719 country, um, 1016 00:38:33,720 --> 00:38:35,099 makes their own plans and are difficult 1017 00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:37,379 to assess. Some countries might, 1018 00:38:37,380 --> 00:38:38,380 um, 1019 00:38:40,110 --> 00:38:42,689 or might rely on 1020 00:38:42,690 --> 00:38:44,819 economic growth. For example, one country 1021 00:38:44,820 --> 00:38:47,339 might only give out, um, 1022 00:38:47,340 --> 00:38:49,259 a target that they are very sure to reach 1023 00:38:49,260 --> 00:38:50,669 and other countries might have 1024 00:38:50,670 --> 00:38:51,799 difficulties reaching. 1025 00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,429 For example, Germany is not even on track 1026 00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:54,809 to reach the 2020 goal. 1027 00:38:56,310 --> 00:38:58,379 And if you compare that to this 1028 00:38:58,380 --> 00:39:01,079 range with, um, 1029 00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,149 the range that would be required to stay 1030 00:39:03,150 --> 00:39:05,789 below two or even one point five degrees, 1031 00:39:05,790 --> 00:39:08,099 we can clearly see that we are not 1032 00:39:08,100 --> 00:39:09,449 even close to that. 1033 00:39:09,450 --> 00:39:11,609 So in green and biology, you can see 1034 00:39:11,610 --> 00:39:12,610 these ranges. 1035 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:15,280 Um. 1036 00:39:16,350 --> 00:39:17,339 So what should we do? 1037 00:39:17,340 --> 00:39:19,289 Maybe should we start hacking the climate 1038 00:39:19,290 --> 00:39:20,729 if you're not reducing emissions fast 1039 00:39:20,730 --> 00:39:21,839 enough? 1040 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,689 Geoengineering as a topic that has been 1041 00:39:24,690 --> 00:39:27,059 widely discussed in the past 1042 00:39:27,060 --> 00:39:28,799 years and especially last months and 1043 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,439 weeks, there have been lots of articles 1044 00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,569 in The New Yorker, The Economist 1045 00:39:33,570 --> 00:39:34,950 wired all the Spiegel 1046 00:39:36,300 --> 00:39:38,249 and also the NGOs published warning 1047 00:39:38,250 --> 00:39:38,879 reports. 1048 00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:40,049 And, um, 1049 00:39:41,370 --> 00:39:43,889 of course, the scientists also, um, 1050 00:39:43,890 --> 00:39:45,659 published many studies and. 1051 00:39:45,660 --> 00:39:46,660 Yeah. 1052 00:39:47,550 --> 00:39:49,679 So why is it important to 1053 00:39:50,940 --> 00:39:52,739 talk about, um, geoengineering and 1054 00:39:52,740 --> 00:39:54,959 removing emissions from 1055 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:56,579 removing carbon dioxide from the 1056 00:39:56,580 --> 00:39:58,769 atmosphere, the particularly 1057 00:39:58,770 --> 00:40:01,199 part of all scenarios that are used 1058 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,539 to assess, um, our chances 1059 00:40:03,540 --> 00:40:04,679 to stay below two degrees. 1060 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,749 So years one stylized, 1061 00:40:06,750 --> 00:40:08,939 um, scenario, the red line is, 1062 00:40:08,940 --> 00:40:11,069 um, emissions pathway and the 1063 00:40:11,070 --> 00:40:12,989 Bronner's um, 1064 00:40:14,050 --> 00:40:15,509 um, yeah. 1065 00:40:15,510 --> 00:40:17,609 Area shows the CO2 emissions and 1066 00:40:17,610 --> 00:40:19,469 emissions from other greenhouse gases. 1067 00:40:19,470 --> 00:40:21,599 And below the zero line and blue, we 1068 00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,939 see emissions that are being removed. 1069 00:40:23,940 --> 00:40:26,609 So negative emissions. 1070 00:40:26,610 --> 00:40:29,429 And if these negative emissions get even, 1071 00:40:29,430 --> 00:40:32,249 um, larger than what we emit, 1072 00:40:32,250 --> 00:40:33,929 as you can see at the end of the century, 1073 00:40:33,930 --> 00:40:36,179 then we might even be reducing 1074 00:40:36,180 --> 00:40:37,799 CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere 1075 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:38,879 again. 1076 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:40,049 So can we do that? 1077 00:40:40,050 --> 00:40:41,999 One easy way is to simply plant lots of 1078 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,149 trees, afforestation, 1079 00:40:45,150 --> 00:40:46,739 and make sure that these trees never get 1080 00:40:46,740 --> 00:40:48,509 cut off or burn. 1081 00:40:48,510 --> 00:40:50,369 Um, another more technical approach that 1082 00:40:50,370 --> 00:40:52,559 is part of all these scenarios of 1083 00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,719 most of the scenarios is a technology 1084 00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:57,509 called PAX and 1085 00:40:57,510 --> 00:40:59,729 extends for bioenergy with carbon capture 1086 00:40:59,730 --> 00:41:02,579 and storage. And it basically means, 1087 00:41:02,580 --> 00:41:04,769 um, producing bioenergy, as we all 1088 00:41:04,770 --> 00:41:05,900 are already doing. 1089 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,509 So, um, planting crops 1090 00:41:09,510 --> 00:41:12,389 or fast growing birds and then 1091 00:41:12,390 --> 00:41:14,489 transporting these biomass to a power 1092 00:41:14,490 --> 00:41:16,020 station, burning the fuel. 1093 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,809 And, um, capturing 1094 00:41:19,810 --> 00:41:21,339 the carbon that is released again and 1095 00:41:21,340 --> 00:41:23,769 the, um, the burning process 1096 00:41:23,770 --> 00:41:25,929 and then storing this carbon in 1097 00:41:25,930 --> 00:41:27,909 geological storage sites deep 1098 00:41:27,910 --> 00:41:28,910 underground. 1099 00:41:29,700 --> 00:41:31,329 So this sounds like a great idea. 1100 00:41:31,330 --> 00:41:33,489 And if you think it through, it means the 1101 00:41:33,490 --> 00:41:35,559 more electricity you produce with, 1102 00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,019 um, respect, 1103 00:41:38,020 --> 00:41:39,639 the more CO2 you move from the 1104 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,609 atmosphere. So if you were driving a car, 1105 00:41:42,610 --> 00:41:44,709 um, that would be powered by electricity 1106 00:41:44,710 --> 00:41:46,929 from Becs, the more you drove your car, 1107 00:41:46,930 --> 00:41:49,239 the more you moved. 1108 00:41:49,240 --> 00:41:51,039 But of course, such a technology doesn't 1109 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,809 come without its disadvantages. 1110 00:41:53,810 --> 00:41:56,439 So to really make a difference, um, 1111 00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,509 it would require, um, 1112 00:41:58,510 --> 00:41:59,739 huge areas of land. 1113 00:41:59,740 --> 00:42:01,869 So in some scenarios that can be 1114 00:42:01,870 --> 00:42:04,239 up to the size of one or two times 1115 00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:06,999 of India. So India, um, 1116 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,379 over Europe. 1117 00:42:08,380 --> 00:42:10,539 And it's clear that having 1118 00:42:10,540 --> 00:42:13,059 so much, um, additional 1119 00:42:13,060 --> 00:42:15,399 land use and farming land required 1120 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:16,789 would not be without problems. 1121 00:42:16,790 --> 00:42:19,149 So there would certainly be competition 1122 00:42:19,150 --> 00:42:21,399 with, um, food production. 1123 00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,009 So potentially rising food prices. 1124 00:42:24,010 --> 00:42:26,079 And it's not easy to produce, 1125 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:28,779 um, such large amounts of bioenergy 1126 00:42:28,780 --> 00:42:31,269 without heavy fertilizer usage and 1127 00:42:31,270 --> 00:42:33,639 then potentially losing and biodiversity 1128 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,049 loss and all the problems that we already 1129 00:42:35,050 --> 00:42:37,689 have with sustainably producing, 1130 00:42:37,690 --> 00:42:39,070 uh, things that agriculture. 1131 00:42:40,300 --> 00:42:42,699 Another problem is that we need to, 1132 00:42:42,700 --> 00:42:44,889 um, move all the biomass that we need 1133 00:42:44,890 --> 00:42:47,139 to the power stations, and then we need 1134 00:42:47,140 --> 00:42:49,209 to, um, transport the 1135 00:42:49,210 --> 00:42:52,329 CO2 that we captured 1136 00:42:52,330 --> 00:42:53,739 to the sites what can be stored. 1137 00:42:53,740 --> 00:42:56,319 So that would require building a huge 1138 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,509 network of pipelines. 1139 00:42:58,510 --> 00:43:00,699 And it seems likely that few people 1140 00:43:00,700 --> 00:43:02,799 want a CO2 pipeline in their backyard 1141 00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:04,959 and also not a CO2 1142 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:05,960 storage site. 1143 00:43:06,700 --> 00:43:08,829 And in fact, now already in Germany, they 1144 00:43:08,830 --> 00:43:11,019 are, um, 1145 00:43:11,020 --> 00:43:13,179 in some federal states, there 1146 00:43:13,180 --> 00:43:14,889 are laws, regulations against having such 1147 00:43:14,890 --> 00:43:16,429 sites because nobody wants them. 1148 00:43:17,470 --> 00:43:19,929 So carbon dioxide removal, like Becs, 1149 00:43:19,930 --> 00:43:22,119 is a technology that directly, 1150 00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,699 um, works 1151 00:43:24,700 --> 00:43:27,039 or attacks the main cause 1152 00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,139 of climate change. So reducing carbon 1153 00:43:29,140 --> 00:43:30,489 emissions that exist, other 1154 00:43:30,490 --> 00:43:32,829 geoengineering ideas that work 1155 00:43:32,830 --> 00:43:35,289 more, um, against the impacts 1156 00:43:35,290 --> 00:43:36,339 that we saw. 1157 00:43:36,340 --> 00:43:38,469 And one of these is solar 1158 00:43:38,470 --> 00:43:39,819 radiation management and more 1159 00:43:39,820 --> 00:43:42,459 specifically, um, stratospheric 1160 00:43:42,460 --> 00:43:44,529 aerosol injection, as the 1161 00:43:44,530 --> 00:43:46,899 idea here is to mimic what happens 1162 00:43:46,900 --> 00:43:49,029 to a volcanic eruption 1163 00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:51,069 and to, as we saw on the first part, from 1164 00:43:51,070 --> 00:43:53,319 couteur to reflect back 1165 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,969 incoming sunlight so that it doesn't 1166 00:43:54,970 --> 00:43:57,099 reach the earth, of course, 1167 00:43:57,100 --> 00:43:58,809 was a volcanic eruption. 1168 00:43:58,810 --> 00:44:01,329 Then, um, the 1169 00:44:01,330 --> 00:44:02,919 reduced temperature is gone after a 1170 00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,509 couple of years. So we would have to 1171 00:44:04,510 --> 00:44:06,729 artificially using airplanes, 1172 00:44:06,730 --> 00:44:08,979 bring small particles to the stratosphere 1173 00:44:08,980 --> 00:44:10,349 and do this basically forever. 1174 00:44:12,210 --> 00:44:14,279 Um, this also points to one 1175 00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,309 of the main challenges of this proposal, 1176 00:44:17,310 --> 00:44:19,919 if you at some point would have to stop, 1177 00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,499 um, this for technological 1178 00:44:22,500 --> 00:44:24,569 or economic or maybe a war reason, 1179 00:44:24,570 --> 00:44:26,729 then all the global warming that would 1180 00:44:26,730 --> 00:44:28,859 mask and prevented by this technology 1181 00:44:28,860 --> 00:44:30,569 would then quickly be added to the 1182 00:44:30,570 --> 00:44:32,189 warming we got anyway. 1183 00:44:32,190 --> 00:44:35,129 And it seems certainly bad to have a, 1184 00:44:35,130 --> 00:44:37,229 uh, fast termination shock like this 1185 00:44:37,230 --> 00:44:40,019 and a slow, gradual temperature rise. 1186 00:44:40,020 --> 00:44:42,089 Another problem is that, 1187 00:44:42,090 --> 00:44:44,759 um, who gets to decide 1188 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,799 about the optimal global temperature? 1189 00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,689 It could be that in some northern 1190 00:44:48,690 --> 00:44:49,979 countries. Um. 1191 00:44:51,550 --> 00:44:53,559 So people would accept higher temperature 1192 00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,229 and some people in, uh. 1193 00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,359 A low-Lying island 1194 00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:01,649 threatened by sea level rise that would 1195 00:45:01,650 --> 00:45:03,569 rather one temperature rise to stop 1196 00:45:03,570 --> 00:45:05,069 immediately. 1197 00:45:05,070 --> 00:45:07,049 And looking at the current climate 1198 00:45:07,050 --> 00:45:08,129 negotiations process. 1199 00:45:08,130 --> 00:45:09,809 It seems unlikely there would be 1200 00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,109 an agreement found in a short 1201 00:45:13,110 --> 00:45:14,110 time. 1202 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,419 Another idea that 1203 00:45:17,420 --> 00:45:19,399 was discussed in the comic book story 1204 00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,379 from 1988, where I took most of these 1205 00:45:21,380 --> 00:45:23,779 pictures from, was to simply 1206 00:45:23,780 --> 00:45:26,689 freeze water, to reduce 1207 00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:28,159 the sea level. 1208 00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,319 So he asked Scrooge, um, 1209 00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,169 what to profit from a volcanic eruption 1210 00:45:33,170 --> 00:45:36,319 and install large, um, 1211 00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,029 cooling stations at the North and South 1212 00:45:38,030 --> 00:45:40,459 Pole and then have lower temperature 1213 00:45:40,460 --> 00:45:42,859 and freeze the water again 1214 00:45:42,860 --> 00:45:44,809 to have wide stretches of land across the 1215 00:45:44,810 --> 00:45:46,939 coast to build hotels there or 1216 00:45:46,940 --> 00:45:49,849 do farming and make a profit. 1217 00:45:49,850 --> 00:45:52,639 And the story didn't turn out so well. 1218 00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,739 But in fact, real scientists and 1219 00:45:54,740 --> 00:45:55,740 the last years 1220 00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:58,669 have looked what it would take to pump 1221 00:45:58,670 --> 00:46:00,859 water back onto Antarctica and let 1222 00:46:00,860 --> 00:46:03,049 it freeze there again to, um, 1223 00:46:03,050 --> 00:46:04,369 prevent sea level rise. 1224 00:46:04,370 --> 00:46:05,869 And that study looked what it would take 1225 00:46:05,870 --> 00:46:07,519 to rebuild the Arctic ice. 1226 00:46:08,660 --> 00:46:10,759 And both studies use wind power 1227 00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,219 to to do this. 1228 00:46:13,220 --> 00:46:15,319 It turned out that is quite difficult 1229 00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:17,509 and also, um, quite 1230 00:46:17,510 --> 00:46:19,849 energy intensive. So for Antarctica, 1231 00:46:19,850 --> 00:46:21,979 it would require about seven to 14 1232 00:46:21,980 --> 00:46:24,169 percent of global primary energy 1233 00:46:24,170 --> 00:46:26,569 production to pump all this water back. 1234 00:46:26,570 --> 00:46:28,849 So it seems all these approaches are 1235 00:46:28,850 --> 00:46:31,309 either very expensive or 1236 00:46:31,310 --> 00:46:33,409 potentially dangerous or both. 1237 00:46:33,410 --> 00:46:34,819 So what should we do with these 1238 00:46:34,820 --> 00:46:36,649 geoengineering ideas? 1239 00:46:36,650 --> 00:46:39,049 Certainly we should continue researching 1240 00:46:39,050 --> 00:46:41,209 them, but we should also be very 1241 00:46:41,210 --> 00:46:43,099 careful how they are framed, who was 1242 00:46:43,100 --> 00:46:45,319 proposing them, which billionaire might 1243 00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:46,899 be funding them. 1244 00:46:46,900 --> 00:46:49,359 And how other advertised 1245 00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,729 that name can also be an indicator of 1246 00:46:51,730 --> 00:46:53,919 what's planned to do so, 1247 00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,749 climate engineering is also a term widely 1248 00:46:55,750 --> 00:46:57,339 used. Some say it should rather be 1249 00:46:57,340 --> 00:46:58,569 intervention. 1250 00:46:58,570 --> 00:47:00,669 And as an engineer myself, I would like 1251 00:47:00,670 --> 00:47:03,129 to agree because engineers usually 1252 00:47:03,130 --> 00:47:05,469 quite boring and have systems 1253 00:47:05,470 --> 00:47:07,299 that are, um. 1254 00:47:07,300 --> 00:47:09,619 Yeah, well understood and easy to model. 1255 00:47:09,620 --> 00:47:12,339 The term solar radiation management 1256 00:47:12,340 --> 00:47:14,109 was actually coined to avoid using 1257 00:47:14,110 --> 00:47:15,849 geoengineering, which was already a 1258 00:47:15,850 --> 00:47:17,169 loaded term. 1259 00:47:17,170 --> 00:47:19,989 It was later tried to replace radiation 1260 00:47:19,990 --> 00:47:22,059 was reflexion, but it didn't stick. 1261 00:47:22,060 --> 00:47:23,839 Other scientists have argued that it 1262 00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,499 could should it's not management at all 1263 00:47:26,500 --> 00:47:28,869 because you're not managing a process 1264 00:47:28,870 --> 00:47:30,549 that we don't understand completely. 1265 00:47:30,550 --> 00:47:31,989 It should rather be called albedo 1266 00:47:31,990 --> 00:47:33,489 modification or even hacking 1267 00:47:34,660 --> 00:47:36,109 cocktail geoengineering. 1268 00:47:36,110 --> 00:47:38,649 It's another example of a fancy name 1269 00:47:38,650 --> 00:47:40,299 was given in a modeling study to 1270 00:47:40,300 --> 00:47:43,149 geoengineering. Approaches were combined. 1271 00:47:43,150 --> 00:47:45,219 Carbon dioxide removal is, 1272 00:47:45,220 --> 00:47:47,199 I think, a pretty descriptive good name. 1273 00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,569 And negative emissions well. 1274 00:47:49,570 --> 00:47:51,880 And emissions always kind of negative. 1275 00:47:53,110 --> 00:47:55,090 So let's look back at 1276 00:47:56,230 --> 00:47:57,579 our emissions trajectory. 1277 00:47:57,580 --> 00:47:59,739 If you want to be really sure that we can 1278 00:47:59,740 --> 00:48:01,359 stay below two or even one point five 1279 00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,489 degrees above pre-industrial warming, 1280 00:48:04,660 --> 00:48:06,609 we should be reducing emissions much 1281 00:48:06,610 --> 00:48:07,610 faster. 1282 00:48:08,380 --> 00:48:10,479 Because if these technologies don't work, 1283 00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,849 if we are not successful at implementing 1284 00:48:12,850 --> 00:48:15,879 backs, then we have a problem. 1285 00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,549 So we should take more action. 1286 00:48:18,550 --> 00:48:20,829 It's yeah, time to do something. 1287 00:48:20,830 --> 00:48:21,849 But the question is what? 1288 00:48:23,410 --> 00:48:25,689 So in our own work, we work 1289 00:48:25,690 --> 00:48:27,249 a lot with the emissions data, historical 1290 00:48:27,250 --> 00:48:29,709 emissions and the political process. 1291 00:48:29,710 --> 00:48:31,869 And we try to make this as openly 1292 00:48:31,870 --> 00:48:33,789 as possible because without open data, we 1293 00:48:33,790 --> 00:48:36,309 can't judge what countries are doing and 1294 00:48:36,310 --> 00:48:38,409 whether we are on the right track. 1295 00:48:38,410 --> 00:48:40,629 We use Jupiter Notebook's and the BINDE 1296 00:48:40,630 --> 00:48:42,969 project to make them as, um, 1297 00:48:42,970 --> 00:48:45,399 yeah. Explorer and easily 1298 00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:46,839 usable as possible. 1299 00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:48,759 So go and check them out. 1300 00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:49,969 Here's one example. 1301 00:48:49,970 --> 00:48:51,879 Um, this is a Ebtekar emissions data set 1302 00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,279 which gives us CO2 emissions 1303 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:55,239 by sectors. 1304 00:48:55,240 --> 00:48:57,669 So for Germany we see here the power 1305 00:48:57,670 --> 00:49:00,099 sector, transport and buildings, 1306 00:49:00,100 --> 00:49:02,199 buildings looks pretty much OK. 1307 00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:03,789 So there's at least a downward trend 1308 00:49:03,790 --> 00:49:06,129 visible. So it could go further. 1309 00:49:06,130 --> 00:49:08,409 I mean, we have positive policies as 1310 00:49:08,410 --> 00:49:09,819 a technology. 1311 00:49:09,820 --> 00:49:11,559 Transport does not really look like it's 1312 00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:12,879 making progress. 1313 00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,219 So we need more electric cars 1314 00:49:15,220 --> 00:49:16,780 and fewer cars in general. 1315 00:49:18,310 --> 00:49:20,419 But if you look at the statistics 1316 00:49:20,420 --> 00:49:22,479 from last month, we can see that there 1317 00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:24,819 were 300000 newly registered cars 1318 00:49:24,820 --> 00:49:27,429 in Germany and there were 50000 1319 00:49:27,430 --> 00:49:29,799 SUVs and only 3000 electric cars. 1320 00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,299 So it's really not heading into the right 1321 00:49:31,300 --> 00:49:32,319 direction. 1322 00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,569 And this is a political decision 1323 00:49:34,570 --> 00:49:35,570 that was made. 1324 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,949 So what's Germany who prevented, 1325 00:49:38,950 --> 00:49:41,199 um, stricter 1326 00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:42,579 regulations for cars in the European 1327 00:49:42,580 --> 00:49:43,840 Union a couple of years ago? 1328 00:49:45,370 --> 00:49:47,499 And the same goes for the power sector. 1329 00:49:47,500 --> 00:49:49,749 We could be building, um, 1330 00:49:49,750 --> 00:49:52,179 wind power plants and solar panels 1331 00:49:52,180 --> 00:49:53,269 much faster than we do. 1332 00:49:53,270 --> 00:49:55,209 It's a political political decision to 1333 00:49:55,210 --> 00:49:56,949 not build this as fast as we can. 1334 00:49:58,930 --> 00:50:01,179 Here's some data from the smart, um, 1335 00:50:01,180 --> 00:50:03,339 platform, which shows, uh, Transport 1336 00:50:03,340 --> 00:50:03,909 Germany. 1337 00:50:03,910 --> 00:50:05,889 And, uh, a couple of days ago, we 1338 00:50:05,890 --> 00:50:08,319 actually met all energy or 1339 00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,109 electricity demand with, um, 1340 00:50:11,110 --> 00:50:13,269 renewable sources and some nuclear 1341 00:50:13,270 --> 00:50:14,409 energy. 1342 00:50:14,410 --> 00:50:16,479 So we could have switched off, um, 1343 00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:17,679 lignite power on the steam. 1344 00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:19,689 But it's a challenge. 1345 00:50:19,690 --> 00:50:21,999 And if we want to, 1346 00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:23,649 uh, reach those, unless we did, is we 1347 00:50:23,650 --> 00:50:26,349 need more capacity and also storage 1348 00:50:26,350 --> 00:50:29,289 and building such a fully decentralized, 1349 00:50:29,290 --> 00:50:30,290 um. 1350 00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:34,129 Smart grid is a very 1351 00:50:34,130 --> 00:50:36,349 hard task, but I 1352 00:50:36,350 --> 00:50:39,459 think we have to do it, and I think it is 1353 00:50:39,460 --> 00:50:42,169 this Congress and in past 1354 00:50:42,170 --> 00:50:44,299 elections, we saw great talk that 1355 00:50:44,300 --> 00:50:45,589 describe some of the challenges 1356 00:50:46,740 --> 00:50:47,869 and. Yeah. 1357 00:50:50,260 --> 00:50:51,260 When we'll have some more. 1358 00:50:55,720 --> 00:50:57,789 OK, yeah, so even if 1359 00:50:57,790 --> 00:50:59,979 we managed to get to 100 1360 00:50:59,980 --> 00:51:02,679 percent renewables, well, 1361 00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:04,629 we have to think about efficiency. 1362 00:51:04,630 --> 00:51:06,669 And I think this is also where people who 1363 00:51:06,670 --> 00:51:07,959 are interested in hardware and software 1364 00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,539 are coming to as these technologies 1365 00:51:10,540 --> 00:51:12,939 get more and more common 1366 00:51:12,940 --> 00:51:14,589 and popular. 1367 00:51:14,590 --> 00:51:16,659 But for just 1368 00:51:16,660 --> 00:51:19,509 as an example, with cryptocurrency, 1369 00:51:19,510 --> 00:51:22,449 um, they have a built in efficiency. 1370 00:51:22,450 --> 00:51:24,969 So we kind of have to find a way 1371 00:51:24,970 --> 00:51:26,979 to still stick to these kinds of 1372 00:51:26,980 --> 00:51:29,439 decentralized systems, 1373 00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,779 which are fascinating technology, 1374 00:51:31,780 --> 00:51:34,179 but on the other hand, find a way 1375 00:51:34,180 --> 00:51:35,180 to get. 1376 00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,489 That running without an energy demand, 1377 00:51:38,490 --> 00:51:40,609 that is for Bitcoin 1378 00:51:40,610 --> 00:51:42,829 itself in some numbers going up 1379 00:51:42,830 --> 00:51:45,079 to the electricity 1380 00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:46,190 consumption of Denmark. 1381 00:51:48,790 --> 00:51:50,889 A nice example of which is more like 1382 00:51:50,890 --> 00:51:52,749 hacking the system, hacking the social 1383 00:51:52,750 --> 00:51:55,749 system is the divestment movement. 1384 00:51:55,750 --> 00:51:56,750 So 1385 00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,459 the idea is here to to 1386 00:52:00,460 --> 00:52:02,639 alter the monetary flows. 1387 00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,179 So getting. 1388 00:52:05,310 --> 00:52:07,439 Investors persuading investors 1389 00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:09,779 not to invest into companies 1390 00:52:09,780 --> 00:52:11,879 that are carbon intensive, but to 1391 00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,729 green their portfolio just as an example. 1392 00:52:14,730 --> 00:52:16,979 This movement was kind of successful 1393 00:52:16,980 --> 00:52:19,169 recently when they when 1394 00:52:19,170 --> 00:52:21,239 they managed to persuade the Norwegian 1395 00:52:21,240 --> 00:52:23,459 government to divest 1396 00:52:23,460 --> 00:52:25,320 the from the 1397 00:52:26,610 --> 00:52:28,979 Norwegian pension fund, 1398 00:52:28,980 --> 00:52:31,079 all companies that 1399 00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,359 rely on 30 percent coal or 1400 00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:34,360 more. 1401 00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,349 But of course, as consumers, 1402 00:52:37,350 --> 00:52:39,419 as individuals, we are also 1403 00:52:39,420 --> 00:52:40,979 investors in a way, with our daily 1404 00:52:40,980 --> 00:52:43,139 decisions. So we should just keep that 1405 00:52:43,140 --> 00:52:45,239 in mind when traveling or in our 1406 00:52:45,240 --> 00:52:46,289 diet. 1407 00:52:46,290 --> 00:52:48,419 But as Robert said, there is not 1408 00:52:48,420 --> 00:52:50,679 one solution to the climate problem. 1409 00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,079 We probably have to think that very 1410 00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,179 holistically from the individual to 1411 00:52:54,180 --> 00:52:55,799 politics. 1412 00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:57,869 And so we also need policy 1413 00:52:57,870 --> 00:53:00,269 and politic political regulations 1414 00:53:00,270 --> 00:53:02,519 that demand from business 1415 00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:05,129 to to 1416 00:53:05,130 --> 00:53:06,130 get greener. 1417 00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,269 And just as a last example, I 1418 00:53:09,270 --> 00:53:11,819 think in democratic states 1419 00:53:11,820 --> 00:53:14,289 like ours, we are as citizens 1420 00:53:14,290 --> 00:53:17,129 almost obliged to protest 1421 00:53:17,130 --> 00:53:19,439 when we think things are going wrong. 1422 00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,539 And this just as a last example, 1423 00:53:21,540 --> 00:53:24,269 the end goal and the movement that now 1424 00:53:24,270 --> 00:53:26,369 grows from year to year where 1425 00:53:26,370 --> 00:53:28,919 people block lignite 1426 00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:30,749 mining production. That is still going on 1427 00:53:30,750 --> 00:53:33,119 in Germany, though, we claim to be 1428 00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,219 quite renewable already. 1429 00:53:35,220 --> 00:53:36,220 So. 1430 00:53:37,380 --> 00:53:39,039 To sum up. 1431 00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:40,629 To what end? 1432 00:53:40,630 --> 00:53:42,519 Well, we don't know everything about 1433 00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:44,769 climate change, but we know 1434 00:53:44,770 --> 00:53:46,809 definitely enough to act. 1435 00:53:46,810 --> 00:53:47,810 Thank you very much. 1436 00:53:58,690 --> 00:54:01,539 Thank you, John Accorsi, 1437 00:54:01,540 --> 00:54:03,989 spin room there, and the Roberts Heathkit 1438 00:54:03,990 --> 00:54:05,079 U.S. brands, right? 1439 00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:06,480 Yes, please. 1440 00:54:08,700 --> 00:54:10,559 Thank you for inviting us about climate 1441 00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:12,599 change, the climate system and the ways 1442 00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:14,189 to hack it. We have time for certain 1443 00:54:14,190 --> 00:54:16,379 questions. So if you would approach your 1444 00:54:16,380 --> 00:54:17,380 microphone 1445 00:54:19,650 --> 00:54:22,109 six. Yes, please go. 1446 00:54:22,110 --> 00:54:23,219 Hello. I have a question. 1447 00:54:23,220 --> 00:54:24,449 Do you made a calculation? 1448 00:54:24,450 --> 00:54:26,879 What is the real emission of electric car 1449 00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:28,439 in Germany? Because there are some 1450 00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,359 countries in Europe with an electric car, 1451 00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,399 in fact, is coal powered car. 1452 00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,739 And when we compare emissions 1453 00:54:34,740 --> 00:54:37,349 from these electric car powered by coal, 1454 00:54:37,350 --> 00:54:39,419 it's two times greater than the 1455 00:54:39,420 --> 00:54:41,310 emissions from normal gas on cars. 1456 00:54:43,550 --> 00:54:45,649 We don't work exactly on this, but it's 1457 00:54:45,650 --> 00:54:47,809 a very good question and 1458 00:54:47,810 --> 00:54:49,309 I agree, you need to take this into 1459 00:54:49,310 --> 00:54:49,639 account. 1460 00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,229 Sales, for example, the electricity map 1461 00:54:51,230 --> 00:54:52,939 to Iraq. We can see what the current 1462 00:54:52,940 --> 00:54:54,049 emissions are from a country. 1463 00:54:54,050 --> 00:54:56,119 So you should load 1464 00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:58,379 up your car when it's politics, 1465 00:54:58,380 --> 00:54:59,380 renewables. 1466 00:55:01,460 --> 00:55:02,929 Not a question. 1467 00:55:02,930 --> 00:55:05,079 Uh, microphone number two. 1468 00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:05,979 Oh, thank you. 1469 00:55:05,980 --> 00:55:07,659 There was a question, there was a 1470 00:55:07,660 --> 00:55:10,179 statement that oh point eight 1471 00:55:10,180 --> 00:55:12,279 watts per square meter hit the 1472 00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:14,169 earth. Could you see a little bit more 1473 00:55:14,170 --> 00:55:16,659 about this? I mean, I can see how 1474 00:55:16,660 --> 00:55:18,819 if you look at the whole earth together, 1475 00:55:18,820 --> 00:55:20,499 then the sun is always shining on one 1476 00:55:20,500 --> 00:55:22,569 side. So if you just can't decide that 1477 00:55:22,570 --> 00:55:24,549 it doesn't really matter where you look. 1478 00:55:24,550 --> 00:55:26,859 But doesn't it get more or less 1479 00:55:26,860 --> 00:55:27,999 over the years or so? 1480 00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:30,099 Is this like a yearly average or 1481 00:55:30,100 --> 00:55:32,260 what is the point? I mean, 1482 00:55:33,610 --> 00:55:35,759 it's a yearly average, of course. 1483 00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,049 Well, you have about 350 watts per square 1484 00:55:38,050 --> 00:55:40,179 meter coming in from the sun, 1485 00:55:40,180 --> 00:55:41,679 so you can relate it to that. 1486 00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:43,359 And most of that is going back out, right 1487 00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:45,429 back out from the thermal emission of the 1488 00:55:45,430 --> 00:55:47,829 earth. And ideally, you have 1489 00:55:47,830 --> 00:55:50,079 an equilibrium and it's 1490 00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:51,910 only an equilibrium over 1491 00:55:53,260 --> 00:55:55,929 a year and an equilibrium over 1492 00:55:55,930 --> 00:55:57,429 a day is not there. 1493 00:55:57,430 --> 00:55:59,529 And the space also is not in 1494 00:55:59,530 --> 00:56:01,089 equilibrium. Normally, you have a lot of 1495 00:56:01,090 --> 00:56:02,529 emissions during the polar night. 1496 00:56:02,530 --> 00:56:05,019 There's a lot of stuff going out now. 1497 00:56:05,020 --> 00:56:06,639 And at the same time, there's a lot of, 1498 00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,859 uh, energy coming in at the equator. 1499 00:56:08,860 --> 00:56:10,599 So this is actually a mean value. 1500 00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:11,600 Yeah, of course. 1501 00:56:12,730 --> 00:56:15,849 Uh, this lady here, please, should 1502 00:56:15,850 --> 00:56:17,349 I do so? 1503 00:56:17,350 --> 00:56:19,119 Thank you for your talk. 1504 00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,759 So I guess the Earth has its own 1505 00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:24,099 temperature changing cycles, like we had 1506 00:56:24,100 --> 00:56:26,199 Ice Age and stuff which were natural 1507 00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:28,059 climate change occurrences. 1508 00:56:28,060 --> 00:56:30,129 So how much do 1509 00:56:30,130 --> 00:56:31,989 you actually know how much of that good 1510 00:56:31,990 --> 00:56:35,019 old climate change is caused by man 1511 00:56:35,020 --> 00:56:36,459 right now? 1512 00:56:36,460 --> 00:56:38,239 We do have numbers for that. 1513 00:56:38,240 --> 00:56:40,749 Yes. Um, there's 1514 00:56:40,750 --> 00:56:42,879 one per parameter that is not 1515 00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:44,289 influenced by human humanity. 1516 00:56:44,290 --> 00:56:46,499 That's the sun and intensity. 1517 00:56:46,500 --> 00:56:47,799 So what's coming in? 1518 00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,599 And the sun has been getting a little bit 1519 00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,699 brighter if 1520 00:56:51,700 --> 00:56:54,309 you look at the 1521 00:56:54,310 --> 00:56:56,079 components that make up this time of 1522 00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:58,149 change. That's a very nice map in 1523 00:56:58,150 --> 00:57:00,519 a very nice chart in the IPCC report. 1524 00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,679 And you can see that there is, 1525 00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:04,749 I have to guess, but it's a few percent, 1526 00:57:04,750 --> 00:57:06,399 very few percent that is made up by that. 1527 00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,619 Yes. But most of that is actually 1528 00:57:08,620 --> 00:57:10,719 really due to changes 1529 00:57:10,720 --> 00:57:12,339 in the greenhouse gas content. 1530 00:57:12,340 --> 00:57:14,409 There's some changes in land use that's 1531 00:57:14,410 --> 00:57:16,039 also important. 1532 00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:17,529 Most of it has actually been cooling the 1533 00:57:17,530 --> 00:57:19,449 earth because we have been replacing 1534 00:57:19,450 --> 00:57:21,879 forests with farmland. 1535 00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,249 So that reflects off more. 1536 00:57:24,250 --> 00:57:26,319 But at the same time, we 1537 00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:27,939 have all these greenhouse gases coming 1538 00:57:27,940 --> 00:57:29,709 out from farming. So that's the main 1539 00:57:29,710 --> 00:57:31,989 component. Sadly, we can talk later 1540 00:57:31,990 --> 00:57:33,159 about that if you want. 1541 00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:34,869 Yes. I have to remind you as well that we 1542 00:57:34,870 --> 00:57:37,869 can give feedback via the farm blog. 1543 00:57:37,870 --> 00:57:39,999 And I suggest as well, we take 1544 00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,189 in one other question here, but 1545 00:57:42,190 --> 00:57:43,179 we're out of time. 1546 00:57:43,180 --> 00:57:45,429 We have in 15 minutes another lecture 1547 00:57:45,430 --> 00:57:46,629 regarding climate change. 1548 00:57:46,630 --> 00:57:48,309 So we were going, please shoot. 1549 00:57:50,710 --> 00:57:52,959 Don't hesitate, it's a I think it's 1550 00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,269 a very simple question and irony. 1551 00:57:57,070 --> 00:57:59,229 So we a minute 1552 00:57:59,230 --> 00:58:01,509 ago we talked about equilibrium state, 1553 00:58:01,510 --> 00:58:03,939 but what is definitely not an equilibrium 1554 00:58:03,940 --> 00:58:06,489 is an exponentially growing economic 1555 00:58:06,490 --> 00:58:07,389 economy. 1556 00:58:07,390 --> 00:58:09,489 And so my question is, do 1557 00:58:09,490 --> 00:58:11,889 you think that the climate problem could 1558 00:58:11,890 --> 00:58:14,139 be solved inside 1559 00:58:14,140 --> 00:58:16,719 or along with an exponentially 1560 00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:17,989 growing economy? 1561 00:58:17,990 --> 00:58:19,659 So because I adopted. 1562 00:58:23,340 --> 00:58:24,820 Well, there's 1563 00:58:25,930 --> 00:58:28,139 this pretty much comes down to the 1564 00:58:28,140 --> 00:58:30,119 question if if there is something like 1565 00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:31,079 green growth. 1566 00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,910 Yeah. So, um, 1567 00:58:34,140 --> 00:58:36,359 I personally believe. 1568 00:58:37,810 --> 00:58:40,329 That it's not possible 1569 00:58:40,330 --> 00:58:42,579 with the growth growth that we are, 1570 00:58:42,580 --> 00:58:45,339 that we are experienced and that 1571 00:58:45,340 --> 00:58:46,509 that we have experience that we are 1572 00:58:46,510 --> 00:58:49,059 currently experiencing to really 1573 00:58:49,060 --> 00:58:51,010 get to carbon neutral society. 1574 00:58:52,660 --> 00:58:53,660 So. 1575 00:58:54,580 --> 00:58:56,799 I think well, it's most often 1576 00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,179 people that are very optimistic of 1577 00:58:58,180 --> 00:59:00,399 technology solutions that say, OK, 1578 00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:02,469 we can keep our lifestyles, 1579 00:59:02,470 --> 00:59:04,479 we can keep on the way that we live and 1580 00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,819 that we organize society and the economy 1581 00:59:06,820 --> 00:59:09,040 and still get down to zero emissions. 1582 00:59:11,470 --> 00:59:14,469 I personally, I'm not that optimistic. 1583 00:59:14,470 --> 00:59:16,959 But, for example, discussions about 1584 00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,239 degrowth, for example, or a steady state 1585 00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:22,029 economy are not very 1586 00:59:22,030 --> 00:59:23,989 common in climate impact research, 1587 00:59:23,990 --> 00:59:24,990 unfortunately. 1588 00:59:27,260 --> 00:59:29,449 Mike, from number seven there in the high 1589 00:59:29,450 --> 00:59:31,699 back high, 1590 00:59:31,700 --> 00:59:33,739 you told about all the possibilities to 1591 00:59:33,740 --> 00:59:35,419 reduce climate change and they all have 1592 00:59:35,420 --> 00:59:36,929 tradeoffs and costs. 1593 00:59:36,930 --> 00:59:38,689 But then you brushed on animal 1594 00:59:38,690 --> 00:59:41,539 agriculture really quickly and 1595 00:59:41,540 --> 00:59:43,729 I myself can't see what's what 1596 00:59:43,730 --> 00:59:45,019 are the costs there. Could you please 1597 00:59:45,020 --> 00:59:46,020 comment on that? 1598 00:59:48,470 --> 00:59:51,159 You know, or do you mean like 1599 00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:53,769 I mean, do I believe in animal 1600 00:59:53,770 --> 00:59:55,929 agriculture seems to be the odd one out 1601 00:59:55,930 --> 00:59:58,179 in this in this series of things 1602 00:59:58,180 --> 01:00:00,429 you can do, because I myself can't 1603 01:00:00,430 --> 01:00:02,379 see any cost by just stopping to farm 1604 01:00:02,380 --> 01:00:03,380 animals. 1605 01:00:04,190 --> 01:00:06,319 All this missing, we 1606 01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:09,019 are, of course, not every possible 1607 01:00:09,020 --> 01:00:11,389 solution or a thing we can do does 1608 01:00:11,390 --> 01:00:14,269 have to come with the costs, but 1609 01:00:14,270 --> 01:00:15,829 well, of course, we kind of just brushed 1610 01:00:15,830 --> 01:00:16,830 through that. 1611 01:00:18,210 --> 01:00:20,459 That pretty much comes out, I think, down 1612 01:00:20,460 --> 01:00:22,979 to a to a societal discussion 1613 01:00:22,980 --> 01:00:25,439 of how we want to treat animals and how 1614 01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:27,579 our standard of living or how our what we 1615 01:00:27,580 --> 01:00:29,760 are used to eat is actually 1616 01:00:30,870 --> 01:00:33,059 how much we value that over, 1617 01:00:33,060 --> 01:00:34,860 for example, climate change. 1618 01:00:37,930 --> 01:00:38,949 Is that sufficient, 1619 01:00:40,900 --> 01:00:42,069 microphone number two? 1620 01:00:42,070 --> 01:00:45,099 Very last question of all right. 1621 01:00:45,100 --> 01:00:46,389 Thank you. My question 1622 01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:48,909 is about the climate modeling. 1623 01:00:48,910 --> 01:00:51,459 So one of the least crazy 1624 01:00:51,460 --> 01:00:53,529 skepticisms I've heard is was 1625 01:00:53,530 --> 01:00:56,259 by physicist Freeman Dyson, who 1626 01:00:56,260 --> 01:00:58,719 doubted that basically 1627 01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:01,059 the effect of increased carbon 1628 01:01:01,060 --> 01:01:03,489 in the atmosphere on plant growth 1629 01:01:03,490 --> 01:01:05,589 would be sufficiently modeled and 1630 01:01:05,590 --> 01:01:07,779 theorized that more 1631 01:01:07,780 --> 01:01:10,299 carbon would mean faster plant growth. 1632 01:01:10,300 --> 01:01:12,459 And regarding the feedback 1633 01:01:12,460 --> 01:01:14,019 loops that were mentioned would be one 1634 01:01:14,020 --> 01:01:16,269 example of a of a dampening feed, 1635 01:01:16,270 --> 01:01:18,399 a feedback loop, rather 1636 01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,709 than a reinforcing feedback 1637 01:01:20,710 --> 01:01:21,710 loop. 1638 01:01:22,850 --> 01:01:24,559 Yes, that's true, that's one of the 1639 01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:26,869 feedback loops and it is modeled 1640 01:01:26,870 --> 01:01:28,549 their are papers out there that actually 1641 01:01:28,550 --> 01:01:30,169 measure plant. They put plants on a 1642 01:01:30,170 --> 01:01:32,419 little greenhouse and put CO2 there 1643 01:01:32,420 --> 01:01:34,009 and measure how fast they grow. 1644 01:01:34,010 --> 01:01:36,319 And the part that was missing 1645 01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,389 from the 90, 97 percent 1646 01:01:38,390 --> 01:01:39,979 that went into that went into the ocean 1647 01:01:39,980 --> 01:01:42,619 so far is supposed to be taken out 1648 01:01:42,620 --> 01:01:44,509 probably by the biosphere. 1649 01:01:44,510 --> 01:01:45,529 We're not sure. 1650 01:01:45,530 --> 01:01:47,269 So this is included in the model. 1651 01:01:47,270 --> 01:01:48,289 The question is how? 1652 01:01:48,290 --> 01:01:49,849 Well, it is included in the model. 1653 01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:54,289 These and 1654 01:01:54,290 --> 01:01:56,359 insecurities, these 1655 01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,459 unknowns always create a bit 1656 01:01:58,460 --> 01:02:00,229 of an error range. So what you usually do 1657 01:02:00,230 --> 01:02:01,789 is you put the bottom parameter and you 1658 01:02:01,790 --> 01:02:04,069 put pyramiding and few in between maybe, 1659 01:02:04,070 --> 01:02:05,659 and you see what happens. 1660 01:02:05,660 --> 01:02:07,759 Um, but yes, 1661 01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:09,569 we're working on that. 1662 01:02:09,570 --> 01:02:11,659 It's just not enough as far as we 1663 01:02:11,660 --> 01:02:13,760 see is not enough to offset the problem. 1664 01:02:15,300 --> 01:02:16,489 Oh, there's a talk about that later. 1665 01:02:16,490 --> 01:02:18,649 I just heard. OK, thank 1666 01:02:18,650 --> 01:02:20,989 you. Please give us a warm 1667 01:02:20,990 --> 01:02:22,489 applause, these researchers.