0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:30,000 Dear viewer, these subtitles were generated by a machine via the service Trint and therefore are (very) buggy. If you are capable, please help us to create good quality subtitles: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/108 Thanks! 1 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,429 Yes, welcome to my talk with you if you 2 00:00:12,430 --> 00:00:14,749 want to, which is the what's the slogan 3 00:00:14,750 --> 00:00:16,909 of the general national 4 00:00:16,910 --> 00:00:17,910 movement? 5 00:00:19,340 --> 00:00:21,529 I do not claim to have invented any of 6 00:00:21,530 --> 00:00:23,539 the ideas within this talk myself. 7 00:00:23,540 --> 00:00:25,429 It's essentially an excerpt from the 8 00:00:25,430 --> 00:00:27,259 internet. So there'll be a lot of 9 00:00:27,260 --> 00:00:29,329 thoughts, things and a lengthy 10 00:00:29,330 --> 00:00:31,839 list of posts in the end. 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,289 And also, I've given 12 00:00:34,290 --> 00:00:36,409 the normal digital version of the same 13 00:00:36,410 --> 00:00:38,569 talk of the open mind in 14 00:00:38,570 --> 00:00:40,639 all this. So I'm with you 15 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,799 a few times that you should to get 16 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:44,899 a sound, and maybe you can 17 00:00:44,900 --> 00:00:46,970 post the YouTube 18 00:00:48,020 --> 00:00:49,399 anyway only. 19 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,229 Let's get started soon. 20 00:00:51,230 --> 00:00:53,309 You certainly know this image 21 00:00:53,310 --> 00:00:55,459 or one from the internet 22 00:00:55,460 --> 00:00:57,619 or TV, or you don't know it 23 00:00:57,620 --> 00:00:59,029 from radio anyway. 24 00:00:59,030 --> 00:01:01,219 You see your planet and it's 25 00:01:01,220 --> 00:01:02,659 probably it and you're quite familiar 26 00:01:02,660 --> 00:01:04,818 with it because it's where we live. 27 00:01:04,819 --> 00:01:07,189 Unfortunately, it's also 28 00:01:07,190 --> 00:01:08,089 only where we live. 29 00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:10,819 So there's a lot of blank space music 30 00:01:10,820 --> 00:01:12,979 and do all this blank space, which 31 00:01:12,980 --> 00:01:14,519 extends in all directions here. 32 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,650 Still, pretty much nearer humans. 33 00:01:18,380 --> 00:01:20,659 Well, we could be happy with that. 34 00:01:20,660 --> 00:01:23,059 But there are many problems the face 35 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:25,800 problem 36 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,429 on planetary scales, 37 00:01:28,430 --> 00:01:30,499 and we would presumably 38 00:01:30,500 --> 00:01:32,599 like to continue living on this planet 39 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:34,970 for serious amounts of time. 40 00:01:37,490 --> 00:01:39,319 We're not quite sure how much 41 00:01:39,320 --> 00:01:41,749 modification the planet or 42 00:01:41,750 --> 00:01:43,939 the substance making of the ecosphere 43 00:01:43,940 --> 00:01:45,620 of the planet can actually take. 44 00:01:46,820 --> 00:01:49,129 So some scientists may, from three, 45 00:01:49,130 --> 00:01:51,319 try to find, say, 46 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:53,509 safe limits. 47 00:01:53,510 --> 00:01:55,699 How much we can push all these systems, 48 00:01:55,700 --> 00:01:56,749 how do they do that? 49 00:01:56,750 --> 00:01:59,089 They did not try to find basic 50 00:01:59,090 --> 00:02:01,009 points of they sure this is what should 51 00:02:01,010 --> 00:02:02,029 they say, OK? 52 00:02:02,030 --> 00:02:04,099 We have some understanding 53 00:02:04,100 --> 00:02:06,229 of some of these subsystems, 54 00:02:06,230 --> 00:02:07,729 and we know that our current 55 00:02:07,730 --> 00:02:09,379 understanding will probably break down in 56 00:02:09,380 --> 00:02:11,839 some limited conditions where we 57 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:13,969 assume that nonlinear linearity will 58 00:02:13,970 --> 00:02:15,319 start to appear. 59 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,809 And as long as we stay within 60 00:02:17,810 --> 00:02:19,609 those limits, we actually understand that 61 00:02:19,610 --> 00:02:21,769 we can predict that this instance will 62 00:02:21,770 --> 00:02:24,269 make more of a stable and ultimately 63 00:02:24,270 --> 00:02:26,389 be so everything could possibly happen. 64 00:02:26,390 --> 00:02:28,069 This might be no problem at all that we 65 00:02:28,070 --> 00:02:28,969 don't know that. 66 00:02:28,970 --> 00:02:31,299 And since you only got one try thing 67 00:02:31,300 --> 00:02:33,379 to take off here, obviously 68 00:02:33,380 --> 00:02:35,539 this is not very exciting science 69 00:02:35,540 --> 00:02:37,939 because you do realize you cannot 70 00:02:37,940 --> 00:02:40,039 do experiments, but 71 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,269 you know how to think about it. 72 00:02:41,270 --> 00:02:43,399 There's a bit of shortage of materials 73 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,769 for trying all the barriers and seeing 74 00:02:45,770 --> 00:02:47,989 which ones the wife and children. 75 00:02:47,990 --> 00:02:50,269 So they decided you can't just do this. 76 00:02:50,270 --> 00:02:51,859 Theoretically, simultaneously, this is 77 00:02:51,860 --> 00:02:53,810 not experimentally validated in any way. 78 00:02:54,860 --> 00:02:56,959 So what are the main current 79 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,269 problems the 80 00:02:59,270 --> 00:03:01,189 planetary existence of planetary systems 81 00:03:01,190 --> 00:03:02,269 face? 82 00:03:02,270 --> 00:03:04,369 One is probably quite well known from 83 00:03:04,370 --> 00:03:06,499 public media, which is to take ozone 84 00:03:06,500 --> 00:03:08,929 depletion because 85 00:03:08,930 --> 00:03:11,509 there's a theory that stratospheric 86 00:03:11,510 --> 00:03:13,009 ozone prevents 87 00:03:14,390 --> 00:03:16,159 ultraviolet radiation to reach the 88 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,319 surface in the ozone 89 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,599 is going to get more harmful rather 90 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,089 than radiation, which causes 91 00:03:23,090 --> 00:03:25,559 skin cancer in humans, and also that 92 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,649 the same sorts of animals 93 00:03:27,650 --> 00:03:29,119 and plants. 94 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:30,679 And actually, this is quite a success 95 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,229 story for humanity so far because 96 00:03:33,230 --> 00:03:35,389 they calculated that 97 00:03:36,970 --> 00:03:39,229 the safe haven would be 95 percent 98 00:03:39,230 --> 00:03:41,569 of the pre-industrial amount of strength 99 00:03:41,570 --> 00:03:43,909 through zone, and the current level is 100 00:03:43,910 --> 00:03:45,529 actually quite variable, as can be 101 00:03:45,530 --> 00:03:47,689 observed over three years, 102 00:03:47,690 --> 00:03:49,319 somewhat less. 103 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,409 But they aren't quite 104 00:03:51,410 --> 00:03:53,629 sure that the old stage will be reached 105 00:03:53,630 --> 00:03:55,039 around 2070 again. 106 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,549 Similar problems exist for 107 00:03:58,550 --> 00:04:00,249 fresh water usage. 108 00:04:00,250 --> 00:04:03,469 Same thing with the 4000 kilometer 109 00:04:03,470 --> 00:04:04,879 cubed per year, 110 00:04:05,990 --> 00:04:08,479 humanity overall is using approximately 111 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,639 2600 of them, so there's still 112 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,979 some wiggle room for us. 113 00:04:12,980 --> 00:04:15,049 Similarly, for allowances, mental 114 00:04:15,050 --> 00:04:17,629 illness that as long as is 115 00:04:17,630 --> 00:04:19,699 converted to agricultural use, 116 00:04:19,700 --> 00:04:21,949 it has different absorption and 117 00:04:21,950 --> 00:04:24,019 reflection properties 118 00:04:24,020 --> 00:04:26,809 and also different effects on 119 00:04:26,810 --> 00:04:29,299 other chemicals like, 120 00:04:29,300 --> 00:04:31,370 for example, the nitrogen or phosphorus. 121 00:04:32,450 --> 00:04:35,239 There's nobody lot. 122 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,099 Most people have never heard about, which 123 00:04:37,100 --> 00:04:39,439 is ocean acidification. 124 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,269 So what is the problem here? 125 00:04:41,270 --> 00:04:43,459 The increasing 126 00:04:43,460 --> 00:04:46,339 carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere 127 00:04:46,340 --> 00:04:48,769 generates or causes 128 00:04:48,770 --> 00:04:50,369 a change in 129 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,949 the ocean or whatever 130 00:04:54,950 --> 00:04:57,109 of the ocean, which means that 131 00:04:57,110 --> 00:04:58,979 more calcium carbonate can be sold 132 00:04:58,980 --> 00:04:59,959 through the water. 133 00:04:59,960 --> 00:05:01,499 And you would not necessarily mean 134 00:05:01,500 --> 00:05:02,389 petroleum. 135 00:05:02,390 --> 00:05:04,489 But for all the more time which 136 00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:06,409 actually build their shells, don't this 137 00:05:06,410 --> 00:05:09,469 calcium carbonate and the. 138 00:05:09,470 --> 00:05:11,689 Change it more energy intensive 139 00:05:11,690 --> 00:05:13,339 to actually build B cells, and presumably 140 00:05:13,340 --> 00:05:15,709 they built these cells because they 141 00:05:15,710 --> 00:05:17,189 lost their geometry. 142 00:05:17,190 --> 00:05:18,829 But because they need them for protection 143 00:05:18,830 --> 00:05:21,619 from predators, meaning that 144 00:05:21,620 --> 00:05:23,719 once the soldier 145 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,579 gets too 146 00:05:27,260 --> 00:05:29,449 different from the evils 147 00:05:29,450 --> 00:05:31,909 that'll be lost to the ocean, 148 00:05:31,910 --> 00:05:32,910 they're really 149 00:05:34,010 --> 00:05:34,909 going to be large. 150 00:05:34,910 --> 00:05:37,339 Changes in plankton levels, 151 00:05:37,340 --> 00:05:38,959 which will cause some change in their 152 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,269 motility, which will cause changes 153 00:05:41,270 --> 00:05:43,399 usually don't are too good 154 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,639 for those predictable actions. 155 00:05:46,790 --> 00:05:48,229 Then the other two things they'll put you 156 00:05:48,230 --> 00:05:49,219 about something like aerosol 157 00:05:49,220 --> 00:05:51,469 concentrations, which cause 158 00:05:51,470 --> 00:05:53,509 global cooling level and also a lot of 159 00:05:53,510 --> 00:05:54,919 health problems in humans and presumably 160 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:55,849 other animals. 161 00:05:55,850 --> 00:05:57,859 And all chemical pollution that is 162 00:05:57,860 --> 00:06:00,289 producing a lot of sulfur, 163 00:06:00,290 --> 00:06:02,419 unseen chemical eats, which also 164 00:06:02,420 --> 00:06:04,369 do stuff. We don't know exactly what they 165 00:06:04,370 --> 00:06:05,899 do because there are so many of them. 166 00:06:05,900 --> 00:06:07,989 So it's very hard to actually quantify 167 00:06:07,990 --> 00:06:08,990 the here 168 00:06:10,380 --> 00:06:11,539 and there is climate change. Everybody 169 00:06:11,540 --> 00:06:12,949 knows what climate change. 170 00:06:12,950 --> 00:06:16,189 You should have around 350 171 00:06:16,190 --> 00:06:18,319 million coming out of 172 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,839 the film. We have already and production 173 00:06:20,840 --> 00:06:23,629 seems to slow down at any rate 174 00:06:23,630 --> 00:06:25,369 in the world, and nitrogen and phosphorus 175 00:06:25,370 --> 00:06:27,259 cycles may influence production. 176 00:06:28,350 --> 00:06:29,630 And the problem is that 177 00:06:30,740 --> 00:06:33,079 by initially doing intensive 178 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,569 agriculture, we need to put more nitrogen 179 00:06:35,570 --> 00:06:38,719 in the soil. 180 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,630 And all this additional nitrogen is 181 00:06:41,840 --> 00:06:43,459 in the air, ending up in the rivers and 182 00:06:43,460 --> 00:06:45,019 the ocean, and 183 00:06:46,100 --> 00:06:47,959 you're changing his education and also 184 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:49,879 doing other stuff. 185 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,849 And then there's diversity laws. 186 00:06:53,300 --> 00:06:54,799 People think that it would be safe. 187 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,809 If you have 10 times metrics, you could 188 00:06:56,810 --> 00:06:58,939 say the extinction rate of species 189 00:06:58,940 --> 00:07:01,220 three currently around 190 00:07:03,260 --> 00:07:05,989 applies to transform that level, 191 00:07:05,990 --> 00:07:07,790 depending on which individual looking at. 192 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,239 And also, we have some 193 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,369 limited raw materials that are used 194 00:07:13,370 --> 00:07:15,529 to good, loyal coal, whatever. 195 00:07:15,530 --> 00:07:17,599 And this is actually an image from the 196 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,849 German Wikipedia. Anyway, in the 197 00:07:19,850 --> 00:07:22,339 bar chart shows oil reserves 198 00:07:22,340 --> 00:07:24,529 discovered in the past, and the black 199 00:07:24,530 --> 00:07:26,329 dots show avoid production. 200 00:07:26,330 --> 00:07:27,980 And obviously there is 201 00:07:29,510 --> 00:07:32,119 some difference for some years already, 202 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,159 some at some point in the future, there 203 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:35,869 won't be that much of an event. 204 00:07:37,070 --> 00:07:38,070 People are very 205 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,929 non-degree. Maybe something that will be. 206 00:07:41,930 --> 00:07:43,339 Some people say, okay, peak oil will be 207 00:07:43,340 --> 00:07:44,539 here in 10 years. 208 00:07:44,540 --> 00:07:46,489 Some people claim it has already 209 00:07:46,490 --> 00:07:47,490 occurred. 210 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:49,560 The International 211 00:07:50,630 --> 00:07:52,579 Institute, some international oil 212 00:07:52,580 --> 00:07:54,679 producing association, actually says it 213 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,119 will meet within the next 50 years. 214 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,179 It doesn't really matter if 215 00:07:59,180 --> 00:08:01,699 it is normal 50 years, even 200 years. 216 00:08:01,700 --> 00:08:03,109 If you're talking about continued 217 00:08:04,370 --> 00:08:06,499 survival of humanity, we need to 218 00:08:06,500 --> 00:08:08,029 get away from that resource usage, 219 00:08:08,030 --> 00:08:10,429 obviously, and quite fast actually 220 00:08:10,430 --> 00:08:11,869 didn't exist for their wrong. 221 00:08:11,870 --> 00:08:13,880 Here is the cold calls for limited 222 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,779 approximately three years, 49 and 223 00:08:17,780 --> 00:08:20,239 120 years to call it current 224 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,519 consumption level and 225 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,439 the dual metals materials, including for 226 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:25,909 long periods. 227 00:08:25,910 --> 00:08:28,189 Fortunately, the planet core consists 228 00:08:28,190 --> 00:08:29,659 of a lot of metals. Unfortunately, it 229 00:08:29,660 --> 00:08:31,099 gets a little bit harder to mine them 230 00:08:31,100 --> 00:08:32,389 once it gets to them. 231 00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:34,879 So plus it has actually increased. 232 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,189 I tried to compare it to something not 233 00:08:37,190 --> 00:08:39,469 too inflationary, so I compared it to 234 00:08:39,470 --> 00:08:41,689 raise prices. 235 00:08:41,690 --> 00:08:43,788 And if you do that comparison to actually 236 00:08:43,789 --> 00:08:46,489 see a price increase by a factor of 237 00:08:46,490 --> 00:08:48,689 another two to five over 238 00:08:48,690 --> 00:08:50,749 30 years, and I fully expect that to 239 00:08:50,750 --> 00:08:51,750 continue. 240 00:08:53,990 --> 00:08:55,820 Yes. So this is like 241 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:58,939 soft limits anyway. 242 00:08:58,940 --> 00:09:01,099 This is not just to universe, which will 243 00:09:01,100 --> 00:09:02,779 take years to evolve. 244 00:09:02,780 --> 00:09:04,759 And then there are also in the slightly 245 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,979 more violent ways. 390 like, OK, 246 00:09:06,980 --> 00:09:09,139 well, I'm everybody knows 247 00:09:09,140 --> 00:09:11,269 all that danger, I think. 248 00:09:11,270 --> 00:09:13,979 And while the research for the top 249 00:09:13,980 --> 00:09:16,699 reasons, I don't me to be here, 250 00:09:16,700 --> 00:09:18,029 I'm sure. 251 00:09:23,290 --> 00:09:25,449 Yes, it's and there's actually 252 00:09:25,450 --> 00:09:27,939 quite a long list of critical situations 253 00:09:27,940 --> 00:09:30,189 which evolved during and after 254 00:09:30,190 --> 00:09:31,190 the Cold War. 255 00:09:32,170 --> 00:09:33,269 For example, there were 256 00:09:34,300 --> 00:09:37,119 some sort of haven't really had a divorce 257 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,459 and according to such incidents, 258 00:09:39,460 --> 00:09:40,779 would have been answered by nuclear 259 00:09:40,780 --> 00:09:41,889 nuclear strikes. 260 00:09:41,890 --> 00:09:43,629 And then it continues, however, and then 261 00:09:43,630 --> 00:09:45,219 something went wrong with the actual 262 00:09:45,220 --> 00:09:47,319 execution of the plan will see 263 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:48,320 a little bit of that. 264 00:09:49,180 --> 00:09:51,069 Four years later, they found out that 265 00:09:51,070 --> 00:09:53,389 actually there were no technical 266 00:09:53,390 --> 00:09:55,839 blockades to stop all the 267 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,359 ICBM fighting an engineer, 268 00:09:58,360 --> 00:09:59,889 one rogue engineer group. 269 00:09:59,890 --> 00:10:01,450 So you have to be historically careful. 270 00:10:03,070 --> 00:10:05,409 And then in 1979, 271 00:10:05,410 --> 00:10:07,629 very technical people will watch the 272 00:10:07,630 --> 00:10:09,489 training tape, essentially, which showed 273 00:10:09,490 --> 00:10:11,949 incoming missiles some superior 274 00:10:11,950 --> 00:10:14,089 complete control over their shoulder 275 00:10:14,090 --> 00:10:15,789 or whatever, and pull that, oh shit, 276 00:10:15,790 --> 00:10:17,379 we're currently being attacked from the 277 00:10:17,380 --> 00:10:18,939 president and so on. 278 00:10:18,940 --> 00:10:21,159 And only a few 279 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,109 minutes later, they actually figured out 280 00:10:23,110 --> 00:10:25,569 that they which were watching it tape 281 00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:26,919 and stopped the preparation for 282 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:27,920 construction. 283 00:10:29,470 --> 00:10:31,539 Yes. Similarly, the other 284 00:10:31,540 --> 00:10:32,540 way around. 285 00:10:33,340 --> 00:10:35,709 And in 1983, the Soviet 286 00:10:35,710 --> 00:10:37,569 Union believed that they were being 287 00:10:37,570 --> 00:10:40,059 attacked by the United States. 288 00:10:40,060 --> 00:10:41,379 If I remember correctly, it was due to 289 00:10:41,380 --> 00:10:42,380 something else. 290 00:10:44,140 --> 00:10:46,479 And some of these concerns actually 291 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,609 were only defuzed because 292 00:10:48,610 --> 00:10:51,009 various actually single soldiers refused 293 00:10:51,010 --> 00:10:52,629 to let orders. So there were very few 294 00:10:52,630 --> 00:10:54,639 orders, like if these and those things 295 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:56,829 happen, then so the concentrated press 296 00:10:56,830 --> 00:10:58,329 this button. 297 00:10:58,330 --> 00:11:00,609 Yes, the very 298 00:11:00,610 --> 00:11:02,439 precisely specified stuff happened. 299 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,509 The issue of 300 00:11:04,510 --> 00:11:06,759 presumably not stopping the nuclear 301 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,559 work, which would otherwise have 302 00:11:08,560 --> 00:11:09,560 happened. 303 00:11:10,030 --> 00:11:11,499 In my opinion, this is not a very 304 00:11:13,060 --> 00:11:15,669 sustainable way of keeping humanity life, 305 00:11:15,670 --> 00:11:17,379 depending on the people are following 306 00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:18,380 orders. 307 00:11:19,970 --> 00:11:21,489 You might think it would be quite 308 00:11:21,490 --> 00:11:22,539 conservative estimate. 309 00:11:22,540 --> 00:11:24,699 Unfortunately, if we see a panic 310 00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:27,129 over the last 50 years on about, 311 00:11:27,130 --> 00:11:29,199 say, since the end of 312 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,389 the Second World War, we would 313 00:11:31,390 --> 00:11:33,459 have been there, but there was a two 314 00:11:33,460 --> 00:11:35,169 percent probability of actually nuclear 315 00:11:35,170 --> 00:11:37,269 war. Starting would not necessarily 316 00:11:37,270 --> 00:11:38,939 mean total extinction of humanity. 317 00:11:38,940 --> 00:11:40,599 It was quite simply mean. 318 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,729 And of current civilizations, you know 319 00:11:42,730 --> 00:11:43,730 it? 320 00:11:44,740 --> 00:11:45,789 Yes. If we just. 321 00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:50,689 Projected this rate into the future for 322 00:11:50,690 --> 00:11:53,129 a few years, they come force behind 323 00:11:53,130 --> 00:11:55,399 the survival chance is actually not quite 324 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,799 that good. Sixty six percent, 325 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,469 which is a lot lower than 326 00:12:00,470 --> 00:12:01,669 I would like them to be. 327 00:12:01,670 --> 00:12:03,919 And it obviously a little brother wants 328 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,269 to go to 12:03pm. 329 00:12:05,270 --> 00:12:06,270 Yes. 330 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:08,809 And then there are other bad things which 331 00:12:08,810 --> 00:12:11,629 could happen like a global pandemic, 332 00:12:11,630 --> 00:12:12,989 which, you know, thanks to international 333 00:12:12,990 --> 00:12:14,929 answer. I think the spread of a fostered 334 00:12:14,930 --> 00:12:16,879 meaning we would have a lot shorter time 335 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,619 frame to the countermeasures like 336 00:12:18,620 --> 00:12:20,719 quarantines or even necessary research 337 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,159 into vaccines. 338 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,799 And also, we get new, exciting pathogens 339 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,539 by genetic engineering, which is simply 340 00:12:26,540 --> 00:12:28,309 being done for weapons research 341 00:12:28,310 --> 00:12:30,380 laboratories and also maybe some 342 00:12:31,550 --> 00:12:34,059 kitchen things or which that's 343 00:12:34,060 --> 00:12:36,649 also not even the dangerous climate. 344 00:12:36,650 --> 00:12:38,509 And then they are more exotic but more 345 00:12:38,510 --> 00:12:40,549 nerdy waste, wasteland, humanity like 346 00:12:40,550 --> 00:12:42,769 strong similarity 347 00:12:42,770 --> 00:12:44,179 or whatever. Because I can tell you 348 00:12:44,180 --> 00:12:45,829 something, man. This is how we decide to 349 00:12:45,830 --> 00:12:47,959 support the continued continued existence 350 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,549 of mankind. It would be extremely 351 00:12:49,550 --> 00:12:51,699 difficult to to say 352 00:12:51,700 --> 00:12:53,509 it's a very nice understatement, in my 353 00:12:53,510 --> 00:12:54,510 opinion. 354 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,579 One can argue endlessly about the 355 00:12:58,580 --> 00:13:00,409 entry probabilities of these things 356 00:13:00,410 --> 00:13:02,479 happening, but they do exist. 357 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:03,529 This is the man. 358 00:13:03,530 --> 00:13:05,659 From that point on, I think, Okay, 359 00:13:05,660 --> 00:13:06,660 so what do we do? 360 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,589 Option one is this 361 00:13:09,590 --> 00:13:11,719 one. I try to find a nice image of trees 362 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:13,819 and elves and stuff 363 00:13:13,820 --> 00:13:16,069 like that, but I wasn't able to find 364 00:13:16,070 --> 00:13:18,739 one which is actually know 365 00:13:18,740 --> 00:13:19,759 under a free license. 366 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:21,659 So it took a screenshot of one of my 367 00:13:21,660 --> 00:13:22,660 favorite games. 368 00:13:24,230 --> 00:13:25,909 Anyway, the 369 00:13:25,910 --> 00:13:27,739 common name of this option, I'd say, is 370 00:13:27,740 --> 00:13:28,759 tree hugging. 371 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,049 So we do 372 00:13:30,050 --> 00:13:32,239 all green stuff like we are 373 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,459 one percent renewable energies 374 00:13:34,460 --> 00:13:34,699 and 375 00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:36,229 we will use one percent renewable or 376 00:13:36,230 --> 00:13:38,419 recycled raw materials, which sounds 377 00:13:38,420 --> 00:13:39,829 nice on the surface, but it's actually 378 00:13:39,830 --> 00:13:41,749 quite hard to do that in construction, in 379 00:13:41,750 --> 00:13:44,179 concrete and fertilizer because 380 00:13:44,180 --> 00:13:46,669 you need to get this, that phosphorus 381 00:13:46,670 --> 00:13:47,959 for the fertilizer from somewhere. 382 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,299 And so far as I know, that's 383 00:13:50,300 --> 00:13:52,069 pretty much only manure sources and they 384 00:13:52,070 --> 00:13:54,379 are going to be depleted in 385 00:13:54,380 --> 00:13:56,119 a few hundred years as well. 386 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:56,719 Then you would 387 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,909 need to have global nuclear disarmament. 388 00:13:58,910 --> 00:14:01,279 And if you also want to stop this 389 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,199 more exotic risk like you are throwing 390 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:04,609 out or whatever have you. 391 00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:06,259 You would also need to have a research 392 00:14:06,260 --> 00:14:07,729 stop for this dangerous technologies 393 00:14:07,730 --> 00:14:09,919 because otherwise, at some point in time, 394 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,630 somebody will make a breakthrough there. 395 00:14:14,690 --> 00:14:16,309 This is very hard because you need to get 396 00:14:16,310 --> 00:14:17,689 all these points right. 397 00:14:17,690 --> 00:14:19,459 If you just overlook a thing of these 398 00:14:19,460 --> 00:14:20,569 risks, it 399 00:14:20,570 --> 00:14:21,049 could still 400 00:14:21,050 --> 00:14:22,489 kill humanity. 401 00:14:22,490 --> 00:14:23,899 I mean, we don't need a pandemic 402 00:14:23,900 --> 00:14:24,799 anti-nuclear war. 403 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,809 And so it once we just need one of them 404 00:14:26,810 --> 00:14:27,979 to go from, 405 00:14:27,980 --> 00:14:29,119 oh, well, as in, 406 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:30,589 we would rather not 407 00:14:30,590 --> 00:14:31,590 like to happen. 408 00:14:32,660 --> 00:14:34,399 But even assuming we succeed on all these 409 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,829 points, we have other problems 410 00:14:36,830 --> 00:14:38,959 because Mother Nature is not actually 411 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,759 interested in keeping humanity life. 412 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,379 I mean, there are all kinds of random 413 00:14:42,380 --> 00:14:43,699 encounters in space. 414 00:14:43,700 --> 00:14:44,720 For example, in meteorites, 415 00:14:45,890 --> 00:14:47,239 they happen. 416 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,099 They don't happen that often, but they do 417 00:14:49,100 --> 00:14:49,999 happen. 418 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,219 And from one 419 00:14:52,220 --> 00:14:54,499 kilometer from one kilometer 420 00:14:54,500 --> 00:14:56,659 diameter upwards, they're actually 421 00:14:58,070 --> 00:14:59,539 dangerous to civilization. 422 00:14:59,540 --> 00:15:00,979 It heavily depends on you pick location, 423 00:15:00,980 --> 00:15:03,499 so it could either essentially 424 00:15:03,500 --> 00:15:05,749 smash Antarctica into smaller ice. 425 00:15:05,750 --> 00:15:07,669 Nobody really cares. But the penguins 426 00:15:07,670 --> 00:15:09,889 could also smash North America 427 00:15:09,890 --> 00:15:12,019 to small silicon chips, which 428 00:15:12,020 --> 00:15:13,729 would obviously have a larger impact on 429 00:15:13,730 --> 00:15:15,229 global economy 430 00:15:15,230 --> 00:15:15,379 and 431 00:15:15,380 --> 00:15:16,279 inevitable, 432 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:17,359 which 433 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,129 happens a lot more often. 434 00:15:19,130 --> 00:15:21,619 So there's this very nice volcanic 435 00:15:21,620 --> 00:15:23,659 exclusivity index, which basically just 436 00:15:23,660 --> 00:15:25,879 assigns random numbers to volcanic 437 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,099 explosions. 438 00:15:27,100 --> 00:15:30,209 Larger number means more stuff explodes. 439 00:15:30,210 --> 00:15:32,509 And this is basically 440 00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:33,769 how I feel. They made up the numbers. 441 00:15:33,770 --> 00:15:35,929 So it's not just the euro and the euro is 442 00:15:35,930 --> 00:15:38,059 OK. There is some mountain and some 443 00:15:38,060 --> 00:15:40,489 lava is coming out of it, and then 444 00:15:40,490 --> 00:15:42,859 it scales by a material amount 445 00:15:42,860 --> 00:15:43,860 anyway. 446 00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:46,969 Approximately every 5000 years, one 447 00:15:46,970 --> 00:15:49,039 of these index eight incidents happen, 448 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,079 which means there's more than 100 cubic 449 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:52,490 kilometers of material ejected. 450 00:15:54,530 --> 00:15:56,239 This usually leads to global cooling 451 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:58,339 because of all the dust in 452 00:15:58,340 --> 00:15:59,659 the upper atmosphere layers. 453 00:15:59,660 --> 00:16:01,849 And actually, a small 454 00:16:01,850 --> 00:16:04,199 incident happened in 1816, 455 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,529 which is what you will find 456 00:16:06,530 --> 00:16:08,359 on this year without a summer solstice on 457 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,669 there. That was the last time that 458 00:16:10,670 --> 00:16:12,739 the back that the civilized 459 00:16:12,740 --> 00:16:15,259 world actually had problems 460 00:16:15,260 --> 00:16:16,940 producing sufficient food. 461 00:16:18,830 --> 00:16:20,929 The food failure of the crop 462 00:16:20,930 --> 00:16:22,489 failures extended across North America 463 00:16:22,490 --> 00:16:24,769 and Western Europe at the same time. 464 00:16:24,770 --> 00:16:26,749 And these were large trade centers back 465 00:16:26,750 --> 00:16:28,669 then, so this was actually perceived as a 466 00:16:28,670 --> 00:16:30,799 worldwide food shortage. 467 00:16:32,420 --> 00:16:34,519 The large incidents could most likely 468 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,739 lead to stronger of these effects, 469 00:16:36,740 --> 00:16:37,819 and they are usually global. 470 00:16:37,820 --> 00:16:39,439 So it's not like it will kind of explodes 471 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:40,909 in South America and South America is 472 00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:42,169 being affected. But if it kind of 473 00:16:42,170 --> 00:16:43,549 explodes anywhere and the world is 474 00:16:43,550 --> 00:16:44,550 affected. 475 00:16:47,540 --> 00:16:49,699 And there's another very 476 00:16:49,700 --> 00:16:51,469 sad observation, namely, we do not know 477 00:16:51,470 --> 00:16:53,479 about any civilizations apart from our 478 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:54,049 one so 479 00:16:54,050 --> 00:16:56,029 far, even though we 480 00:16:56,030 --> 00:16:57,609 looked into space and we tried to find 481 00:16:57,610 --> 00:16:59,749 some. So either the start 482 00:16:59,750 --> 00:17:02,029 of will introduce intelligent or let's 483 00:17:02,030 --> 00:17:04,879 just say, building civilizations 484 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,189 kind of life is very unlikely 485 00:17:07,190 --> 00:17:09,108 or this kind of life is unlikely to 486 00:17:09,109 --> 00:17:10,909 spread into space. 487 00:17:10,910 --> 00:17:12,828 And if we wish 488 00:17:12,829 --> 00:17:15,259 to spread humanity into space, then 489 00:17:15,260 --> 00:17:17,868 we better make sure we understand 490 00:17:17,869 --> 00:17:19,068 why that is. 491 00:17:19,069 --> 00:17:20,149 So it could either be the case 492 00:17:20,150 --> 00:17:21,649 that we are 493 00:17:21,650 --> 00:17:24,078 already lucky because we had started 494 00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:25,338 some intelligent life from this trend and 495 00:17:25,339 --> 00:17:27,469 we are here or there is still 496 00:17:27,470 --> 00:17:29,449 a reason in our future 497 00:17:29,450 --> 00:17:30,619 which so 498 00:17:30,620 --> 00:17:31,969 far could all the other intelligent 499 00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:33,799 species will not see. 500 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:35,329 And this is a totally open question yet, 501 00:17:35,330 --> 00:17:37,639 but it is cause for some concern, 502 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,049 in my opinion, because it could well be 503 00:17:39,050 --> 00:17:40,130 that the is in the future. 504 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:43,200 So what do we do? 505 00:17:45,170 --> 00:17:46,189 Challenge accepted. 506 00:17:46,190 --> 00:17:48,379 So maybe we can fix all these problems 507 00:17:48,380 --> 00:17:49,380 at home? 508 00:17:50,420 --> 00:17:51,499 Well, I'm a 509 00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:53,749 computer scientist in Turin 510 00:17:53,750 --> 00:17:55,819 and stuff with digital things. 511 00:17:55,820 --> 00:17:58,399 And but computers break, and 512 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,589 the usual strategy is to try to 513 00:18:00,590 --> 00:18:02,569 correlate the breakage. 514 00:18:02,570 --> 00:18:04,429 So if you have a complex system and you 515 00:18:04,430 --> 00:18:06,289 wish to make sure that some parts of it 516 00:18:06,290 --> 00:18:08,359 always survive, you need to correlate 517 00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:09,979 the risk that 518 00:18:09,980 --> 00:18:11,539 stuff breaks, 519 00:18:11,540 --> 00:18:12,679 usually in computer terms. 520 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,749 There would be backups or whatever or 521 00:18:14,750 --> 00:18:16,789 distributed systems and similar things 522 00:18:16,790 --> 00:18:19,609 can be done to humanity in principle, 523 00:18:19,610 --> 00:18:21,259 even if you just just 524 00:18:21,260 --> 00:18:22,909 consider it a mass colony. 525 00:18:22,910 --> 00:18:23,910 We 526 00:18:25,010 --> 00:18:26,449 have a backup against most of the 527 00:18:26,450 --> 00:18:27,349 planetary disasters. 528 00:18:27,350 --> 00:18:29,659 Just present it because a meteorite is 529 00:18:29,660 --> 00:18:31,009 striking only one planet at a time 530 00:18:32,210 --> 00:18:33,889 and we'll count will only explode in one 531 00:18:33,890 --> 00:18:36,799 planet. Even a pandemic might conceivably 532 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,779 be stopped a lot better if they are long 533 00:18:38,780 --> 00:18:40,670 travel times between two planets. 534 00:18:42,890 --> 00:18:44,989 But once you start thinking big, you 535 00:18:44,990 --> 00:18:46,729 obviously also have to consider the more 536 00:18:46,730 --> 00:18:48,829 correlated risks like supernova and 537 00:18:48,830 --> 00:18:49,759 insanity. 538 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,079 But they are not that bad. 539 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:52,999 Actually, I thought that the blast radius 540 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:54,829 would be lost. Not, you know, this is not 541 00:18:54,830 --> 00:18:56,579 a true blast radius, but the radius. 542 00:18:56,580 --> 00:18:58,699 Well, interesting effects still happen to 543 00:18:58,700 --> 00:18:59,959 ecosystems. 544 00:18:59,960 --> 00:19:02,299 Let's just specify that way. 545 00:19:02,300 --> 00:19:04,129 And obviously, this is a very fuzzy 546 00:19:04,130 --> 00:19:06,289 measure, but you need to put some 547 00:19:06,290 --> 00:19:08,749 limit on this anyway. 548 00:19:08,750 --> 00:19:10,519 The more common supernova type two is 549 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,199 relevant up to approximately 30 light 550 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,509 years, which means we 551 00:19:14,510 --> 00:19:16,939 need to travel some 40 like, you know, 70 552 00:19:16,940 --> 00:19:18,650 like us or something to be actually safe 553 00:19:20,150 --> 00:19:22,279 and supernova type 1A, which are a 554 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,949 lot rarer but look brighter 555 00:19:24,950 --> 00:19:25,669 and 556 00:19:25,670 --> 00:19:27,929 have effect across approximately 1000 557 00:19:27,930 --> 00:19:30,379 ideas. And, well, space is large and in 558 00:19:30,380 --> 00:19:33,079 the largeness of space, really 559 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:34,699 enormous stuff happens. 560 00:19:34,700 --> 00:19:35,869 And the largest 561 00:19:35,870 --> 00:19:37,459 problems 562 00:19:37,460 --> 00:19:39,559 are gamma ray bursts, which 563 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,059 are extremely bright sources for 564 00:19:41,060 --> 00:19:42,060 radiation. 565 00:19:42,650 --> 00:19:44,209 However, the brightness is not only 566 00:19:44,210 --> 00:19:45,829 caused by total energy levels, but also 567 00:19:45,830 --> 00:19:47,959 because of the geometry of 568 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:48,919 the explosion. 569 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,809 So most of the energy is ejected into a 570 00:19:50,810 --> 00:19:53,209 single beam, which means that while 571 00:19:53,210 --> 00:19:55,429 such events have effects 572 00:19:55,430 --> 00:19:57,829 on ecosystems across approximately 6000 573 00:19:57,830 --> 00:20:00,229 light years, it's like a beam 574 00:20:00,230 --> 00:20:01,189 extending from the explosions. 575 00:20:01,190 --> 00:20:02,190 If you would 576 00:20:03,410 --> 00:20:04,939 have fewer colonies in a triangle, for 577 00:20:04,940 --> 00:20:06,679 example, it's impossible to hit all three 578 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,359 of them with a single beam. 579 00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:09,889 So we don't need to actually travel this 580 00:20:09,890 --> 00:20:11,900 6000 light years to get safety there. 581 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,279 Yes. And then there is a totally 582 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,229 different argument for why we should 583 00:20:18,230 --> 00:20:20,419 start colonizers colonizing 584 00:20:20,420 --> 00:20:22,699 space real soon now, because 585 00:20:22,700 --> 00:20:24,499 we're not just wasting the resources of 586 00:20:24,500 --> 00:20:25,639 our planet. 587 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,709 If we assume supplied travel 588 00:20:27,710 --> 00:20:29,989 for all eternity, which many people do. 589 00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:33,079 We lose approximately one galaxy per year 590 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:34,969 from the reach of the universe because 591 00:20:34,970 --> 00:20:36,979 the universe is expanding and at some 592 00:20:36,980 --> 00:20:38,719 point in time, we simply cannot reach 593 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:40,789 certain galaxies anymore because 594 00:20:40,790 --> 00:20:43,159 the expansion of the universe is faster 595 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,229 than light light speed. 596 00:20:45,230 --> 00:20:46,819 And then you cannot ever possibly reached 597 00:20:46,820 --> 00:20:47,749 again. 598 00:20:47,750 --> 00:20:48,949 So what does that 599 00:20:48,950 --> 00:20:51,229 mean in a typical galaxy, according 600 00:20:51,230 --> 00:20:53,659 to Wikipedia, and we'd have across 601 00:20:53,660 --> 00:20:55,459 approximately 100 billion 602 00:20:55,460 --> 00:20:56,460 stars. 603 00:20:57,350 --> 00:20:59,419 It looks like things would be 604 00:20:59,420 --> 00:21:01,249 approximately in 1.6 percent of all these 605 00:21:01,250 --> 00:21:03,139 systems. And if we assume that an Earth 606 00:21:03,140 --> 00:21:05,419 like 10 like Earth can sustain 607 00:21:05,420 --> 00:21:07,069 one billion humans for 50 generations, 608 00:21:07,070 --> 00:21:09,169 which I'd say is doable if you're a bit 609 00:21:09,170 --> 00:21:10,170 careful, 610 00:21:11,390 --> 00:21:12,019 then 611 00:21:12,020 --> 00:21:14,539 each second humanity loses raw resources 612 00:21:14,540 --> 00:21:16,609 for approximately 2.5 613 00:21:16,610 --> 00:21:18,320 billion lives, which is quite a lot, 614 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:20,839 meaning that 615 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,969 as we talk, multiple populations 616 00:21:22,970 --> 00:21:24,890 of this planet essentially being wasted 617 00:21:25,970 --> 00:21:27,949 because we are not well, we are giving up 618 00:21:27,950 --> 00:21:29,509 the chance to bring up these resources 619 00:21:29,510 --> 00:21:30,510 and do stuff with it. 620 00:21:33,470 --> 00:21:33,719 Yes. 621 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,019 So I presume I 622 00:21:36,020 --> 00:21:37,789 convinced you that we would like to do 623 00:21:37,790 --> 00:21:38,790 this. 624 00:21:39,710 --> 00:21:41,899 Then the next question is, OK, what do we 625 00:21:41,900 --> 00:21:43,489 need to do there? 626 00:21:43,490 --> 00:21:44,869 How long should the colony need to be? 627 00:21:46,350 --> 00:21:47,350 And we don't have. 628 00:21:48,020 --> 00:21:49,639 Real experimental data on humans for 629 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,589 minimum viable population size. 630 00:21:51,590 --> 00:21:53,839 But there is a problem, if you take 631 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,089 two small population, then inbreeding 632 00:21:56,090 --> 00:21:58,849 will very fast eliminate 633 00:21:58,850 --> 00:22:00,049 divergence in the 634 00:22:00,050 --> 00:22:02,419 genome, meaning that 635 00:22:02,420 --> 00:22:04,639 after a while you have totally 636 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,949 genetically identical humans, which 637 00:22:06,950 --> 00:22:09,289 in itself isn't necessarily a problem. 638 00:22:09,290 --> 00:22:11,809 But once you get a pathogen or some 639 00:22:11,810 --> 00:22:13,939 other evolutionary pressure on this 640 00:22:13,940 --> 00:22:15,829 group of people, there's a high risk of 641 00:22:15,830 --> 00:22:17,809 just all of them dying. 642 00:22:17,810 --> 00:22:19,459 This is usually what happens to animal 643 00:22:19,460 --> 00:22:20,779 populations once they get too small. 644 00:22:22,370 --> 00:22:24,139 But we have historical precedents, and 645 00:22:24,140 --> 00:22:25,429 there was the Pitcairn Island. 646 00:22:25,430 --> 00:22:27,109 Was this the bone? 647 00:22:27,110 --> 00:22:28,210 Ultimately, 648 00:22:30,140 --> 00:22:32,299 anyway, so people 649 00:22:32,300 --> 00:22:34,159 move to an island essentially isolated 650 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,409 from it, from the rest of the world, and 651 00:22:36,410 --> 00:22:38,519 they had a stable population across 652 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:39,589 approximately 200 years. 653 00:22:40,710 --> 00:22:42,649 Whether that can be a debate about how 654 00:22:42,650 --> 00:22:44,629 stable, in particular sociological state 655 00:22:44,630 --> 00:22:46,759 of these people actually were, but they 656 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:48,079 survived and. 657 00:22:51,500 --> 00:22:52,500 Yes, and, 658 00:22:53,330 --> 00:22:55,819 you know, scientists like, no, so 659 00:22:55,820 --> 00:22:57,829 people have thought about, OK, can we 660 00:22:57,830 --> 00:23:00,079 maybe buy simulation or theoretical 661 00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:04,219 observations, predict 662 00:23:04,220 --> 00:23:06,469 minimal necessary population sizes 663 00:23:06,470 --> 00:23:08,779 and medium term here means some 664 00:23:08,780 --> 00:23:09,919 hundred years. 665 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:11,539 So with only 50 people, you could 666 00:23:11,540 --> 00:23:13,579 probably keep up with a colony for some 667 00:23:13,580 --> 00:23:14,719 years. 668 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,909 If we talk long term a few thousand 669 00:23:16,910 --> 00:23:18,619 years, we need or we would need 500 670 00:23:18,620 --> 00:23:19,669 people. 671 00:23:19,670 --> 00:23:21,109 And actually, the 672 00:23:21,110 --> 00:23:23,149 effect of human population size, meaning 673 00:23:23,150 --> 00:23:24,889 the number of individuals with totally 674 00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:26,209 divergent genomes, you would need to 675 00:23:26,210 --> 00:23:28,429 represent all currently existing human 676 00:23:28,430 --> 00:23:30,649 genes. It's not that large, so it's only 677 00:23:30,650 --> 00:23:32,179 11 to 12 million people. 678 00:23:32,180 --> 00:23:34,429 You would need to totally, very carefully 679 00:23:34,430 --> 00:23:36,889 selected put on a colony to actually 680 00:23:36,890 --> 00:23:38,749 have a copy of each 681 00:23:38,750 --> 00:23:40,640 gene variant currently here on Earth. 682 00:23:41,660 --> 00:23:43,429 But we don't know where exactly these 683 00:23:43,430 --> 00:23:45,589 genes are because we don't scan 684 00:23:45,590 --> 00:23:47,719 the DNA for everybody, but it's just 685 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:48,720 theoretically right. 686 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,529 And for once, a radiation exposure could 687 00:23:51,530 --> 00:23:53,239 actually pretty useful because the 688 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,369 problem is not like bat genes, 689 00:23:55,370 --> 00:23:57,919 as it is sometimes naively 690 00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,989 assumed that if you have inbreeding, then 691 00:23:59,990 --> 00:24:01,879 bad genes will be able to get expressed. 692 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,009 Well, they are getting serious. 693 00:24:04,010 --> 00:24:06,079 But this very high 694 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:07,909 evolution and pressure on these very 695 00:24:07,910 --> 00:24:10,039 specific aliens leading to the fast 696 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:11,299 elimination of them. 697 00:24:11,300 --> 00:24:12,889 The problem is actually that after a 698 00:24:12,890 --> 00:24:15,409 while, you have total uniform genes, 699 00:24:15,410 --> 00:24:17,569 totally uniform genomes there, and 700 00:24:17,570 --> 00:24:19,969 radiation exposure means higher mutation 701 00:24:19,970 --> 00:24:21,379 rates means they actually get more 702 00:24:21,380 --> 00:24:22,380 diversity. 703 00:24:25,120 --> 00:24:27,129 OK. What could we do with another colony 704 00:24:27,130 --> 00:24:27,879 except having a 705 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,919 backup so some 706 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,749 people are not totally convinced just by 707 00:24:31,750 --> 00:24:33,249 saying, OK, we could save humanity from a 708 00:24:33,250 --> 00:24:34,869 lot of disasters, but I say, Yeah, but 709 00:24:34,870 --> 00:24:36,429 what's in for me? 710 00:24:36,430 --> 00:24:37,359 For example, money? 711 00:24:37,360 --> 00:24:39,099 What can we do with another planet? 712 00:24:39,100 --> 00:24:41,259 And we could get raw materials for local 713 00:24:41,260 --> 00:24:43,599 consumption, which gets more interesting 714 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:44,499 in the low points. 715 00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:46,749 With more population, we can possibly 716 00:24:46,750 --> 00:24:48,789 get raw materials in a shallow gravity 717 00:24:48,790 --> 00:24:51,039 well, meaning we can colonize 718 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,349 space faster and do more interesting 719 00:24:53,350 --> 00:24:54,879 stuff about expanding that much energy 720 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,769 because launching stuff from the ground 721 00:24:56,770 --> 00:24:59,169 of Earth actually quite expensive. 722 00:24:59,170 --> 00:25:01,389 We can gather more solar energy, 723 00:25:01,390 --> 00:25:03,309 and in particular, we can support more 724 00:25:03,310 --> 00:25:06,039 population and more population. 725 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,469 My opinion could in particular 726 00:25:08,470 --> 00:25:09,909 lead to a trade of culture and science 727 00:25:09,910 --> 00:25:11,859 because trading information or data is 728 00:25:11,860 --> 00:25:13,569 quite cheap compared to actually trading 729 00:25:13,570 --> 00:25:14,649 stuff. 730 00:25:14,650 --> 00:25:16,629 And you have a large network effects. 731 00:25:16,630 --> 00:25:18,939 So just because if you have twice 732 00:25:18,940 --> 00:25:20,529 the population, you probably get more 733 00:25:20,530 --> 00:25:22,689 than twice the research rate and 734 00:25:22,690 --> 00:25:24,609 even cultural trade, whatever that is. 735 00:25:24,610 --> 00:25:25,750 So I fully expect that 736 00:25:27,790 --> 00:25:29,499 this will be more than just a linear 737 00:25:29,500 --> 00:25:30,500 increase. 738 00:25:31,420 --> 00:25:33,339 Also, history has shown very useful 739 00:25:33,340 --> 00:25:35,979 byproducts of all space research, 740 00:25:35,980 --> 00:25:37,389 and 741 00:25:37,390 --> 00:25:38,979 they can even be a political argument 742 00:25:38,980 --> 00:25:41,949 being made that a lot of the 743 00:25:41,950 --> 00:25:44,409 economy support actions 744 00:25:44,410 --> 00:25:45,459 by large. 745 00:25:45,460 --> 00:25:47,409 Political organizations could just as 746 00:25:47,410 --> 00:25:49,899 well be done by space research projects 747 00:25:49,900 --> 00:25:51,999 because they may not use putting 748 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,709 money in the economy and getting people 749 00:25:53,710 --> 00:25:55,059 to work on stuff. 750 00:25:55,060 --> 00:25:57,189 For example, in Germany, there 751 00:25:57,190 --> 00:25:59,199 in Germany, there are projects restoring 752 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:00,519 historical buildings and historical 753 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,289 epochs, and that can totally tell you 754 00:26:02,290 --> 00:26:03,639 that the return of investment on a 755 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,739 historical part is negligible. 756 00:26:05,740 --> 00:26:07,719 I mean, it's like the historical park 757 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,459 afterwards looks like historical park 758 00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:11,319 pretty much like it was beforehand, say, 759 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,089 100 years ago. In another 100 years, you 760 00:26:13,090 --> 00:26:15,309 have to do another restoring project 761 00:26:15,310 --> 00:26:18,069 and then this continuous ad infinitum. 762 00:26:18,070 --> 00:26:20,199 Not very useful, in my opinion. 763 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,250 Whereas research 764 00:26:22,270 --> 00:26:23,229 adds up. 765 00:26:23,230 --> 00:26:25,419 You do research ones and you also 766 00:26:25,420 --> 00:26:27,159 get all the nice economic effects of 767 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:28,589 trickle down, whether that exist 768 00:26:28,590 --> 00:26:30,519 somewhat, but the pretty much the same 769 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:31,779 economic stuff would happen. 770 00:26:31,780 --> 00:26:33,609 Must you get additional research output? 771 00:26:36,250 --> 00:26:38,089 Yes, and then we are talking about cost, 772 00:26:38,090 --> 00:26:40,569 so how costly is it actually to 773 00:26:40,570 --> 00:26:41,890 say create a moss colony 774 00:26:44,260 --> 00:26:46,479 initially wanted to humorous, arbitrarily 775 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:47,679 infinite amounts of money? 776 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:48,879 That's not the case. 777 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,459 So and that's actually 778 00:26:51,460 --> 00:26:54,009 publicly announced an approximate 779 00:26:54,010 --> 00:26:55,010 budget plan for 780 00:26:56,260 --> 00:26:58,779 hypothetical Mars mission consisting 781 00:26:58,780 --> 00:27:01,269 of seven to 10 people. 782 00:27:01,270 --> 00:27:02,270 And they 783 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:03,800 said that it would be 784 00:27:05,500 --> 00:27:07,929 now seven to 70 billion dollars 785 00:27:07,930 --> 00:27:08,709 to say 50 786 00:27:08,710 --> 00:27:09,710 billion euros 787 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,759 of this. Approximately half of it is just 788 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,559 rocket boosters and booster rockets to 789 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,539 get the stuff out of the gravity. 790 00:27:16,540 --> 00:27:18,460 Well, just as a competition, 791 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,069 the defense budget, for example, of 792 00:27:21,070 --> 00:27:23,349 Germany, is nearly that amount 30 793 00:27:23,350 --> 00:27:24,489 billion euros. 794 00:27:24,490 --> 00:27:25,899 So it's not like an arbitrary amount of 795 00:27:25,900 --> 00:27:28,059 money. This stuff you can see, 796 00:27:28,060 --> 00:27:29,469 for example, the European Union actually 797 00:27:29,470 --> 00:27:30,470 pay for it if you want to. 798 00:27:32,140 --> 00:27:34,269 Yes, but I didn't also 799 00:27:34,270 --> 00:27:36,519 did not only talk about Mars, so this 800 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,109 must promise essentially sort of like 801 00:27:38,110 --> 00:27:39,999 neither has a plan how to do it if they 802 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,889 just wanted to do it and had the money 803 00:27:41,890 --> 00:27:43,720 which people could, in theory, give them. 804 00:27:44,740 --> 00:27:46,869 But there is also promise escaping the 805 00:27:46,870 --> 00:27:48,999 larger risks like supernova and gamma 806 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,949 ray bursts, and we will obviously need 807 00:27:50,950 --> 00:27:51,950 interstellar travel. 808 00:27:53,950 --> 00:27:56,019 Things don't look that bright 809 00:27:56,020 --> 00:27:57,309 in that area. 810 00:27:57,310 --> 00:27:58,719 So there was the Joint Propulsion 811 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,489 Conference in Hartford, Connecticut, in, 812 00:28:00,490 --> 00:28:01,749 I think, 2004. 813 00:28:01,750 --> 00:28:03,969 Was it anyway that time frame? 814 00:28:03,970 --> 00:28:04,929 Approximately. 815 00:28:04,930 --> 00:28:06,999 And it was the joint statement at 816 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:08,499 the end saying it is highly improbable 817 00:28:08,500 --> 00:28:10,389 that humans will ever explore beyond the 818 00:28:10,390 --> 00:28:13,089 Solar System and 819 00:28:13,090 --> 00:28:14,409 other people from the same conference 820 00:28:14,410 --> 00:28:16,539 essentially said, OK, yeah, but a trip to 821 00:28:16,540 --> 00:28:18,189 Proxima Centauri, which is quite a new 822 00:28:18,190 --> 00:28:19,190 star system, which is 823 00:28:20,490 --> 00:28:21,339 maybe 824 00:28:21,340 --> 00:28:23,499 useful planets, would need 825 00:28:23,500 --> 00:28:25,059 one or two times more energy than the 826 00:28:25,060 --> 00:28:26,799 entire Planet Earth currently generates 827 00:28:27,820 --> 00:28:29,319 again. And there were some plans how to 828 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:30,219 actually do that. 829 00:28:30,220 --> 00:28:32,379 And most of these plants had 830 00:28:32,380 --> 00:28:34,299 some kind of totally 831 00:28:34,300 --> 00:28:35,300 inconceivable 832 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:36,849 device 833 00:28:36,850 --> 00:28:37,899 in it, for example. 834 00:28:37,900 --> 00:28:38,919 Ten million, you give it later. 835 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,359 So if only we could have a 10 million 836 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:41,379 years later. Yeah, we could do 837 00:28:41,380 --> 00:28:42,759 interstellar travel from this if we 838 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,889 don't. And this continues for a lot of 839 00:28:44,890 --> 00:28:46,329 design. So like, OK, we can do 840 00:28:46,330 --> 00:28:48,519 interstellar travel, given 500 841 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:49,659 grams of anti-matter. 842 00:28:49,660 --> 00:28:50,919 Yeah, but we don't. 843 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,689 And so conclusion shit. 844 00:28:52,690 --> 00:28:54,189 And this is 845 00:28:54,190 --> 00:28:55,869 anyway a conclusion some people have 846 00:28:55,870 --> 00:28:56,979 taken. 847 00:28:56,980 --> 00:28:58,599 The other conclusion, which is at the end 848 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,579 of every research paper, is more science 849 00:29:00,580 --> 00:29:01,839 is clearly needed, 850 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:02,849 so we can't do it yet. 851 00:29:02,850 --> 00:29:03,850 Right? 852 00:29:12,350 --> 00:29:14,449 Let's just do some back of the envelope 853 00:29:14,450 --> 00:29:16,219 calculations, so say we want to 854 00:29:16,220 --> 00:29:17,839 accelerate one metric ton, 855 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,909 say three humans, 856 00:29:19,910 --> 00:29:20,910 plus some stuff. 857 00:29:22,700 --> 00:29:23,929 I mean, this is the back of the envelope. 858 00:29:23,930 --> 00:29:25,519 If you take 10 times, the amount doesn't 859 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,319 really matter because it's still order of 860 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,359 magnitude stuff we're talking about here, 861 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,039 but say we want to accelerate one metric 862 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,169 ton to 10 percent like speed, which 863 00:29:33,170 --> 00:29:35,449 would give us a travel time of 40 to 50 864 00:29:35,450 --> 00:29:36,919 years to a nearby star systems. 865 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,629 So this is not like pleasant, but it's 866 00:29:38,630 --> 00:29:39,630 doable. 867 00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,859 If you find a sufficiently insane 868 00:29:42,860 --> 00:29:44,749 people, you could just send them on this 869 00:29:44,750 --> 00:29:45,789 mission. 870 00:29:45,790 --> 00:29:47,359 You're going to get an insane space 871 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:47,659 colony. 872 00:29:47,660 --> 00:29:48,660 But yeah. 873 00:29:49,700 --> 00:29:50,700 Better than nothing, right? 874 00:29:51,770 --> 00:29:52,770 And 875 00:29:54,350 --> 00:29:56,149 actually, there are some organizations I 876 00:29:56,150 --> 00:29:58,609 talk about later, like most one, they 877 00:29:58,610 --> 00:30:00,799 are currently screening candidates 878 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,929 for a one way mission to Mars with 879 00:30:02,930 --> 00:30:05,179 a survival survivability probability 880 00:30:05,180 --> 00:30:06,739 probability of, I don't know, certainly 881 00:30:06,740 --> 00:30:08,089 not one percent. 882 00:30:08,090 --> 00:30:10,879 And they are like having 883 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,320 tens of thousands of applicants. 884 00:30:13,430 --> 00:30:15,259 So this is totally not a problem to find 885 00:30:15,260 --> 00:30:17,239 sufficiently insane people. 886 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,749 Yeah, I mean, seriously. 887 00:30:19,750 --> 00:30:20,749 And OK, 888 00:30:20,750 --> 00:30:22,189 leaving us with the problem of finding 889 00:30:22,190 --> 00:30:23,149 sufficient energy to do 890 00:30:23,150 --> 00:30:24,150 it. 891 00:30:24,530 --> 00:30:26,029 But actually, it's not that much. 892 00:30:26,030 --> 00:30:28,159 So this is a speech of a 893 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:29,749 relativistic effects shouldn't matter 894 00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:31,399 that much. So just use classical 895 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:32,899 mechanics and from afar to do the 896 00:30:32,900 --> 00:30:35,149 calculation and resulting in an 897 00:30:35,150 --> 00:30:38,089 energy need of approximately 898 00:30:38,090 --> 00:30:40,489 four point five times 899 00:30:40,490 --> 00:30:42,769 10 to the power of 17 Joule, which 900 00:30:42,770 --> 00:30:43,249 is 901 00:30:43,250 --> 00:30:45,859 something in particular one 902 00:30:45,860 --> 00:30:47,749 thirtieth of the total energy production 903 00:30:47,750 --> 00:30:49,609 of the USA in 2001. 904 00:30:49,610 --> 00:30:51,829 So this is not actually inconceivably 905 00:30:51,830 --> 00:30:54,289 much. And 2001 is 906 00:30:54,290 --> 00:30:55,459 already more than 10 years ago. 907 00:30:55,460 --> 00:30:56,809 So the total energy production of the 908 00:30:56,810 --> 00:30:58,249 United States of America and the world as 909 00:30:58,250 --> 00:31:00,349 a whole has increased by another 910 00:31:00,350 --> 00:31:01,799 factor of, I don't know, two to three 911 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:02,599 years. So at 912 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:03,609 least. 913 00:31:03,610 --> 00:31:04,249 And so 914 00:31:04,250 --> 00:31:06,679 this mass is this energy is actually 915 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,119 five kilograms equivalent, 916 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:09,709 which was 917 00:31:09,710 --> 00:31:11,659 a little bit contrary to my intuition, 918 00:31:12,710 --> 00:31:14,959 which is why I am mentoring 919 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:15,679 you. 920 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:16,759 And the other question is, can we 921 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:17,929 accelerate it fast enough? 922 00:31:19,220 --> 00:31:20,599 Maybe we can only do this with 923 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,459 accelerations which which would kill 924 00:31:22,460 --> 00:31:23,449 everyone. 925 00:31:23,450 --> 00:31:25,429 But it turns out you only need, say, one 926 00:31:25,430 --> 00:31:27,619 thousand for one year to 927 00:31:27,620 --> 00:31:29,939 get this one 928 00:31:29,940 --> 00:31:31,519 ton accelerated. 929 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,319 And it's not very much so. 930 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,029 You also don't need big thrusters or big 931 00:31:35,030 --> 00:31:36,289 rocket engines. You just need a little 932 00:31:36,290 --> 00:31:37,729 bit of push. 933 00:31:37,730 --> 00:31:39,619 So in theory, we could do that. 934 00:31:41,420 --> 00:31:43,579 OK, so how Trekkies and what could 935 00:31:43,580 --> 00:31:45,799 we actually put on our spaceship 936 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,979 device thing to make a move? 937 00:31:47,980 --> 00:31:49,639 And currently we have solid fuel and 938 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,219 liquid fuel and all this kind of rocketry 939 00:31:52,220 --> 00:31:54,949 having a specific impulse of 250 940 00:31:54,950 --> 00:31:57,199 seconds. And the second union? 941 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:58,490 Totally. Really me the headache. 942 00:32:00,890 --> 00:32:01,890 Sorry. 943 00:32:02,450 --> 00:32:02,929 Yeah, maybe 944 00:32:02,930 --> 00:32:04,369 a little bit depends on the exact 945 00:32:05,630 --> 00:32:06,559 technology. 946 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:07,729 Again, I'm 947 00:32:07,730 --> 00:32:09,979 maybe I didn't mention that. So I'm 948 00:32:09,980 --> 00:32:11,449 by profession, a theoretical computer 949 00:32:11,450 --> 00:32:12,919 scientist by Trekkies. 950 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:14,269 I'm just random hacker guy. 951 00:32:14,270 --> 00:32:15,019 So I've totally 952 00:32:15,020 --> 00:32:16,159 no real 953 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:18,859 clue about this. All I 954 00:32:18,860 --> 00:32:20,689 ever talk about in this talk is from 955 00:32:20,690 --> 00:32:21,379 Wikipedia and 956 00:32:21,380 --> 00:32:22,309 the internet. 957 00:32:22,310 --> 00:32:24,349 So I would certainly ask answer questions 958 00:32:24,350 --> 00:32:26,659 in the end. I hope this time, but 959 00:32:26,660 --> 00:32:28,879 don't expect me to personally have done 960 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,259 anything to further this course except 961 00:32:30,260 --> 00:32:31,339 talking to people 962 00:32:31,340 --> 00:32:32,719 or 963 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:33,979 actually contributed any kind of 964 00:32:33,980 --> 00:32:35,109 research. 965 00:32:35,110 --> 00:32:37,069 And anyway, 966 00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:39,439 the specific impulse is this very 967 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,809 weird time unit, which essentially 968 00:32:41,810 --> 00:32:43,999 means how long you can sustain 969 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,249 this thrust, which would actually push 970 00:32:46,250 --> 00:32:48,379 up the rocket by the same force its 971 00:32:48,380 --> 00:32:50,749 way just pulling it down, which 972 00:32:50,750 --> 00:32:52,489 kind of makes some sense if you're trying 973 00:32:52,490 --> 00:32:54,199 to stand on the floor, but this guy is 974 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,109 shaking his head, so probably it's wrong. 975 00:32:56,110 --> 00:32:58,459 And you 976 00:32:58,460 --> 00:32:59,659 can see it as an issue. 977 00:32:59,660 --> 00:33:00,049 Yes. 978 00:33:00,050 --> 00:33:01,699 So if you just want to compare stuff, 979 00:33:01,700 --> 00:33:02,700 then it's OK, right? 980 00:33:04,430 --> 00:33:05,389 Yes. 981 00:33:05,390 --> 00:33:07,039 So we have solid fuels. 982 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:08,869 And then there are 983 00:33:08,870 --> 00:33:10,459 there was this idea of a solar sail. 984 00:33:10,460 --> 00:33:12,349 So essentially you just put a big 985 00:33:12,350 --> 00:33:13,759 parachute in space, which reflects 986 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:14,779 photons 987 00:33:14,780 --> 00:33:15,289 or 988 00:33:15,290 --> 00:33:17,809 other kinds of radiation, and hope that 989 00:33:17,810 --> 00:33:19,579 the Sun shines on it and pushes pushing 990 00:33:19,580 --> 00:33:21,469 it away. And this sounds to me like 991 00:33:21,470 --> 00:33:23,569 science fiction until you realize that I 992 00:33:23,570 --> 00:33:25,729 think it was. Japan actually already 993 00:33:25,730 --> 00:33:27,859 had a successful mission accomplished 994 00:33:27,860 --> 00:33:30,319 using this technology to monitor the Sun 995 00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,869 using some kind of a satellite, 996 00:33:32,870 --> 00:33:34,939 and it achieved the delta 997 00:33:34,940 --> 00:33:36,919 velocity of only one meter per second, 998 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,139 which is really miniscule in six 999 00:33:39,140 --> 00:33:41,209 months. But it was a prototype also for 1000 00:33:41,210 --> 00:33:43,309 this propulsion device, so this was 1001 00:33:43,310 --> 00:33:44,779 already tested in production use and 1002 00:33:44,780 --> 00:33:45,780 successfully. 1003 00:33:46,460 --> 00:33:47,659 Same thing with ion thrusters. 1004 00:33:47,660 --> 00:33:49,909 So the problem with solid fuel rockets 1005 00:33:49,910 --> 00:33:51,979 is that you propellant a lot of 1006 00:33:51,980 --> 00:33:53,659 mass away from the rocket. 1007 00:33:53,660 --> 00:33:55,609 Quite fast, but quite fast. 1008 00:33:55,610 --> 00:33:56,869 It's not incredibly fast. 1009 00:33:56,870 --> 00:33:58,849 And the idea for ion thruster is to 1010 00:33:58,850 --> 00:34:00,319 propel stuff away from your rocket 1011 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,939 incredibly fast, but use less stuff. 1012 00:34:02,940 --> 00:34:05,209 And the advantage is that you need 1013 00:34:05,210 --> 00:34:06,979 less stuff to carry around with, meaning 1014 00:34:06,980 --> 00:34:09,019 that you need to accelerate less stuff in 1015 00:34:09,020 --> 00:34:10,979 the beginning of the journey. 1016 00:34:10,980 --> 00:34:13,069 And this gives rise to this higher 1017 00:34:13,070 --> 00:34:14,899 specific impulse as a which is, as we 1018 00:34:14,900 --> 00:34:18,019 have learned, kind of rate of efficiency 1019 00:34:18,020 --> 00:34:19,020 and 1020 00:34:19,790 --> 00:34:21,919 creating these high exhaust velocities 1021 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:22,968 needs a lot of power. 1022 00:34:22,969 --> 00:34:24,829 But this can, at least at this level, 1023 00:34:24,830 --> 00:34:27,769 still be done by solar sails or 1024 00:34:27,770 --> 00:34:29,869 nuclear reactors, 1025 00:34:29,870 --> 00:34:30,870 as in 1026 00:34:32,449 --> 00:34:34,249 what they called you. 1027 00:34:34,250 --> 00:34:36,619 Are this the 1028 00:34:36,620 --> 00:34:37,849 nuclear 1029 00:34:37,850 --> 00:34:39,888 reactors, which essentially work by using 1030 00:34:39,889 --> 00:34:41,749 the heat differential between some 1031 00:34:41,750 --> 00:34:43,968 self-sustaining slow nuclear reaction 1032 00:34:43,969 --> 00:34:45,319 and rest of space? 1033 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,388 So it's not like a real nuclear 1034 00:34:47,389 --> 00:34:49,079 power plant up there? 1035 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:49,319 And then 1036 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,718 there is this very complicated 1037 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,419 called variable specific impulse magnet 1038 00:34:53,420 --> 00:34:54,779 plasma rocket 1039 00:34:54,780 --> 00:34:55,649 and 1040 00:34:55,650 --> 00:34:57,779 which essentially is like an iron 1041 00:34:57,780 --> 00:34:59,699 thruster, but using magnetic fields to 1042 00:34:59,700 --> 00:35:00,989 accelerate stuff. 1043 00:35:00,990 --> 00:35:03,149 But has the added advantage of 1044 00:35:03,150 --> 00:35:05,909 being able to provide a lot more thrust 1045 00:35:05,910 --> 00:35:08,069 at the cost of lower specific inputs if 1046 00:35:08,070 --> 00:35:09,629 you actually need that for some kind of 1047 00:35:09,630 --> 00:35:10,679 maneuver? 1048 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,169 And this totally 1049 00:35:13,170 --> 00:35:13,739 if you 1050 00:35:13,740 --> 00:35:15,599 read these lines, it sounds a lot like 1051 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:17,399 science fiction until the people 1052 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:18,989 mentioned that NASA's going to employ 1053 00:35:18,990 --> 00:35:21,329 such a 200 kilowatt device in 2015 1054 00:35:21,330 --> 00:35:23,519 to the ice to stabilize the orbit. 1055 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,079 So it's not like this is science fiction. 1056 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:26,969 This is actually currently being 1057 00:35:26,970 --> 00:35:28,079 deployed, essentially. 1058 00:35:29,910 --> 00:35:32,009 Yeah. And then this is stuff we have used 1059 00:35:32,010 --> 00:35:33,719 or are pretty much about using. 1060 00:35:33,720 --> 00:35:35,879 And then there is propulsion research, so 1061 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,439 upcoming stuff we could possibly do. 1062 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:40,229 The first point 1063 00:35:40,230 --> 00:35:42,599 is just better anthracis, essentially. 1064 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:43,600 So by doing 1065 00:35:44,970 --> 00:35:45,239 ion 1066 00:35:45,240 --> 00:35:46,709 thrusters differently, namely using a 1067 00:35:46,710 --> 00:35:49,049 little bit more acceleration stages 1068 00:35:49,050 --> 00:35:51,369 and some engineering filling, 1069 00:35:51,370 --> 00:35:53,589 there are not yet finished with. 1070 00:35:53,590 --> 00:35:54,899 And you get a lot higher specific 1071 00:35:54,900 --> 00:35:57,029 impulse, basically by accelerating 1072 00:35:57,030 --> 00:35:58,649 stuff even faster. 1073 00:35:58,650 --> 00:36:00,239 And this is in the face of what I would 1074 00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:01,379 call initial engineering. 1075 00:36:01,380 --> 00:36:03,779 So it was theoretically predicted 1076 00:36:03,780 --> 00:36:06,539 and it was built and people looked at the 1077 00:36:06,540 --> 00:36:08,489 actually realized exhaust velocities and 1078 00:36:08,490 --> 00:36:10,139 weren't quite totally happy. 1079 00:36:10,140 --> 00:36:11,939 And then they were trying to get a little 1080 00:36:11,940 --> 00:36:13,649 bit more efficiency out of their 1081 00:36:13,650 --> 00:36:15,809 prototype. But it is essentially there 1082 00:36:15,810 --> 00:36:16,810 to. 1083 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:18,239 Then there was a very 1084 00:36:18,240 --> 00:36:20,639 weird idea of the Q thruster. 1085 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,469 The problem I already talked about is 1086 00:36:22,470 --> 00:36:24,179 that you need to expel stuff from your 1087 00:36:24,180 --> 00:36:25,619 rocket and all this stuff you want to 1088 00:36:25,620 --> 00:36:26,729 expel. You need to take with you 1089 00:36:26,730 --> 00:36:27,730 initially. 1090 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,989 But what if you could expel something 1091 00:36:30,990 --> 00:36:33,209 else? So, for example, in a 1092 00:36:33,210 --> 00:36:34,889 typical jet engine, you expect a lot of 1093 00:36:34,890 --> 00:36:36,299 hot air in space. 1094 00:36:36,300 --> 00:36:38,279 You could conceivably expel oxygen, you 1095 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,349 have hydrogen you have collected from 1096 00:36:40,350 --> 00:36:41,350 space, 1097 00:36:41,970 --> 00:36:42,569 but you 1098 00:36:42,570 --> 00:36:44,279 can expel apparently something even 1099 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:45,719 stranger, namely virtual vacuum 1100 00:36:45,720 --> 00:36:48,419 particles, which exist 1101 00:36:48,420 --> 00:36:49,420 only 1102 00:36:50,190 --> 00:36:51,839 in some kind of theoretical physical 1103 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:52,819 models. 1104 00:36:52,820 --> 00:36:54,959 An interesting thing is people have built 1105 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:56,100 a prototype and it seemed to work, 1106 00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:58,579 so I don't really care why. 1107 00:37:00,990 --> 00:37:01,319 Yes. 1108 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,569 And so they're currently 1109 00:37:03,570 --> 00:37:05,819 trying to build a larger prototype 1110 00:37:05,820 --> 00:37:07,379 and providing one newton at the power 1111 00:37:07,380 --> 00:37:08,819 consumption of three kilowatt, which 1112 00:37:08,820 --> 00:37:10,349 would actually give us our 1113 00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,069 one to ten percent light speed at 30 1114 00:37:14,070 --> 00:37:15,509 megabit power consumption. 1115 00:37:15,510 --> 00:37:17,339 And you know, this is hard to do in space 1116 00:37:17,340 --> 00:37:19,649 because of the because 1117 00:37:19,650 --> 00:37:21,359 of the heat generated from all this power 1118 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,309 generation, but it's not totally 1119 00:37:23,310 --> 00:37:25,169 out of limits, right? 1120 00:37:25,170 --> 00:37:26,579 You know, then there is a lot of other 1121 00:37:26,580 --> 00:37:29,219 more exotic stuff like some guy have 1122 00:37:29,220 --> 00:37:31,380 thought up a nice way to actually 1123 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:32,729 create 1124 00:37:32,730 --> 00:37:34,439 photons and expel those from the rocket 1125 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:35,590 and in and 1126 00:37:36,930 --> 00:37:37,229 gather 1127 00:37:37,230 --> 00:37:39,299 all the of impulse into 1128 00:37:39,300 --> 00:37:40,769 the rocket. Only problem is you need a 1129 00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:41,909 lot of anti-matter and you don't have 1130 00:37:41,910 --> 00:37:42,509 that. 1131 00:37:42,510 --> 00:37:45,779 And then there's interestingly, 1132 00:37:45,780 --> 00:37:46,479 the 1133 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,599 drive, which promises faster than 1134 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,339 light travel by doing some weird 1135 00:37:50,340 --> 00:37:51,989 spacetime hikari. I'm totally not 1136 00:37:51,990 --> 00:37:53,009 understanding. 1137 00:37:53,010 --> 00:37:54,719 And again, the interesting thing is 1138 00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,179 another claims they have for prototype, 1139 00:37:57,180 --> 00:37:58,619 and they're currently trying to measure 1140 00:37:58,620 --> 00:38:00,089 whether they'd actually affect spacetime 1141 00:38:00,090 --> 00:38:01,829 by doing something interferometer 1142 00:38:01,830 --> 00:38:03,059 experiments. 1143 00:38:03,060 --> 00:38:05,219 And in my August talk, I'd said, OK, 1144 00:38:05,220 --> 00:38:07,079 the initial experiments are being planned 1145 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:08,729 and they're currently running, and the 1146 00:38:08,730 --> 00:38:10,559 first results are slightly positive, but 1147 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,359 not yet significant. 1148 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,489 So it looks like there might be something 1149 00:38:14,490 --> 00:38:15,719 happening, actually, which would be 1150 00:38:15,720 --> 00:38:16,979 awesome, obviously. 1151 00:38:16,980 --> 00:38:18,419 And there are some official statements 1152 00:38:18,420 --> 00:38:20,039 from the other which are publicly 1153 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:21,209 available from the website saying, 1154 00:38:21,210 --> 00:38:22,979 actually, if they're anywhere on space, 1155 00:38:22,980 --> 00:38:24,059 special relativity, and 1156 00:38:24,060 --> 00:38:25,739 maybe so 1157 00:38:26,940 --> 00:38:27,869 we don't totally. 1158 00:38:27,870 --> 00:38:30,089 Not that yet. And also, let 1159 00:38:30,090 --> 00:38:30,209 me 1160 00:38:30,210 --> 00:38:31,499 warn you about that one, because there's 1161 00:38:31,500 --> 00:38:32,500 a lot of 1162 00:38:33,810 --> 00:38:34,349 journalists 1163 00:38:34,350 --> 00:38:36,749 reporting of the latest results, saying 1164 00:38:36,750 --> 00:38:38,819 they managed to reduce the 1165 00:38:38,820 --> 00:38:40,979 mass of the vehicle from 1166 00:38:40,980 --> 00:38:43,469 the size of Jupiter to the size of 1167 00:38:43,470 --> 00:38:44,520 500kg 1168 00:38:46,140 --> 00:38:48,269 comparable to some early space probes. 1169 00:38:48,270 --> 00:38:50,489 And this is actually right they reduce 1170 00:38:50,490 --> 00:38:53,129 the necessary mass to five one kg, 1171 00:38:53,130 --> 00:38:54,659 but the journalist didn't get it that 1172 00:38:54,660 --> 00:38:56,939 it's not about a physical mass, but 1173 00:38:56,940 --> 00:38:59,129 mass equivalent energy. 1174 00:38:59,130 --> 00:39:01,349 So it needs approximately 250 kilograms 1175 00:39:01,350 --> 00:39:02,350 of antimatter to do that. 1176 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:04,830 Yet we're not there yet, obviously. 1177 00:39:08,220 --> 00:39:09,629 Yes, and I think 1178 00:39:09,630 --> 00:39:12,149 this will be on the 1179 00:39:12,150 --> 00:39:15,129 last topic I want to start. 1180 00:39:15,130 --> 00:39:16,919 And who is actually doing all this stuff 1181 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:18,239 and how much resources are we actually 1182 00:39:18,240 --> 00:39:19,939 spending on this stuff? 1183 00:39:19,940 --> 00:39:21,629 I'm presuming that this is important to 1184 00:39:21,630 --> 00:39:23,699 get humanity across the next few 1185 00:39:23,700 --> 00:39:25,529 thousand years. One would think that 1186 00:39:25,530 --> 00:39:26,909 maybe we could actually spend some money 1187 00:39:26,910 --> 00:39:27,809 on it. 1188 00:39:27,810 --> 00:39:28,169 Yeah, we 1189 00:39:28,170 --> 00:39:29,069 do, in a sense. 1190 00:39:29,070 --> 00:39:31,259 So then NASA approximately gets 1191 00:39:31,260 --> 00:39:33,329 17 or six billion dollars and 1192 00:39:33,330 --> 00:39:34,559 so on. So on the Russian federal space 1193 00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,329 agency, next one, then ESA, then the 1194 00:39:36,330 --> 00:39:39,119 Japanese, Chinese and Indian one. 1195 00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:40,499 You can read all this in this. 1196 00:39:40,500 --> 00:39:41,500 So it's just that 1197 00:39:42,570 --> 00:39:44,009 there are also some private institutions 1198 00:39:44,010 --> 00:39:45,689 coming up now because some people 1199 00:39:45,690 --> 00:39:47,459 apparently are not quite 1200 00:39:47,460 --> 00:39:49,009 happy with a. 1201 00:39:49,010 --> 00:39:50,659 The speed of the official government 1202 00:39:50,660 --> 00:39:51,859 research 1203 00:39:51,860 --> 00:39:54,469 and the first 1204 00:39:54,470 --> 00:39:56,419 company totally gave me the laugh, the 1205 00:39:56,420 --> 00:39:57,949 laughter when I looked at their homepage 1206 00:39:57,950 --> 00:39:59,449 because it looks like a restriction of 1207 00:39:59,450 --> 00:40:00,680 GeoCities. I totally 1208 00:40:01,970 --> 00:40:02,989 recommend visiting 1209 00:40:02,990 --> 00:40:03,990 this 1210 00:40:04,430 --> 00:40:05,869 second link down there. 1211 00:40:05,870 --> 00:40:08,269 You'll find it lovely webpage 1212 00:40:08,270 --> 00:40:11,029 looking exactly like a 1990s 1213 00:40:11,030 --> 00:40:12,329 GeoCities homepage. 1214 00:40:12,330 --> 00:40:13,429 There's a knife friend. This ugly 1215 00:40:13,430 --> 00:40:14,899 animations and stuff like and looks 1216 00:40:14,900 --> 00:40:16,969 totally ridiculous until they tell 1217 00:40:16,970 --> 00:40:18,499 you that they have two prototypes of 1218 00:40:18,500 --> 00:40:20,929 inflatable habitat stuff already in orbit 1219 00:40:20,930 --> 00:40:22,669 and are going to dock them to the ICAC in 1220 00:40:22,670 --> 00:40:24,109 2015. 1221 00:40:24,110 --> 00:40:26,479 So, yeah, 1222 00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,699 apparently the skills are totally 1223 00:40:28,700 --> 00:40:29,659 different. 1224 00:40:29,660 --> 00:40:31,729 Then there is this Planetary Resources 1225 00:40:31,730 --> 00:40:32,749 Committee. They're actually called 1226 00:40:32,750 --> 00:40:34,099 planetary resources. 1227 00:40:34,100 --> 00:40:36,319 They are, well, 1228 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,479 having some kind of believable business 1229 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,239 plan trying to really mine asteroids. 1230 00:40:41,240 --> 00:40:43,579 Currently, they are selling shared 1231 00:40:43,580 --> 00:40:46,009 time slots on very cheap 1232 00:40:46,010 --> 00:40:46,969 telescopes in low 1233 00:40:46,970 --> 00:40:48,379 orbit and 1234 00:40:48,380 --> 00:40:50,449 to get their business started. 1235 00:40:50,450 --> 00:40:52,669 And then there is the nonprofit Mars 1236 00:40:52,670 --> 00:40:54,499 One, which essentially is just trying to 1237 00:40:54,500 --> 00:40:56,389 get one last colony going. 1238 00:40:56,390 --> 00:40:58,129 And they all these people are trying to 1239 00:40:58,130 --> 00:41:00,629 screen the applicants currently. 1240 00:41:00,630 --> 00:41:02,779 Also, they have signed the contracts 1241 00:41:02,780 --> 00:41:04,909 for the first unmanned mission test 1242 00:41:04,910 --> 00:41:07,639 missions, essentially to start in 2015 1243 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,679 16. So this also stuff moving actually. 1244 00:41:11,810 --> 00:41:14,029 Yes, bringing me to this, in my opinion, 1245 00:41:14,030 --> 00:41:14,929 very, very sad. 1246 00:41:14,930 --> 00:41:16,879 Slight because the question is okay, we 1247 00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:17,929 are giving some money to this 1248 00:41:17,930 --> 00:41:19,999 institution, so we are doing something to 1249 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,219 ensure continued survival 1250 00:41:22,220 --> 00:41:24,289 of humanity. But is it much? 1251 00:41:24,290 --> 00:41:26,209 And let's try to answer it this way. 1252 00:41:26,210 --> 00:41:28,189 The gross world product in money, which 1253 00:41:28,190 --> 00:41:29,839 is not totally accurate, but we need some 1254 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:30,799 numbers to compare. 1255 00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,989 It is approximately 1256 00:41:32,990 --> 00:41:35,149 84 times 10 1257 00:41:35,150 --> 00:41:36,379 to the power of 12. This would be 1258 00:41:36,380 --> 00:41:37,820 trillions if I'm not wrong. 1259 00:41:39,020 --> 00:41:41,359 So this is the productivity 1260 00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:42,469 we have 1261 00:41:42,470 --> 00:41:42,769 or 1262 00:41:42,770 --> 00:41:44,299 what the economists see of the 1263 00:41:44,300 --> 00:41:46,009 productivity anyway. 1264 00:41:46,010 --> 00:41:47,689 So what do we do with it? 1265 00:41:47,690 --> 00:41:49,879 1.5 of these 10 1266 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,009 trillion dollars go to military expenses. 1267 00:41:52,010 --> 00:41:54,169 Some of this might actually help space 1268 00:41:54,170 --> 00:41:57,319 expansion, like high energy research 1269 00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,989 going on research for orbital launches. 1270 00:41:59,990 --> 00:42:01,819 But a lot of it is just ammunition tanks, 1271 00:42:01,820 --> 00:42:02,839 boring stuff. 1272 00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:04,249 I mean, you don't have a return of 1273 00:42:04,250 --> 00:42:05,299 investment on this stuff. It just 1274 00:42:05,300 --> 00:42:06,409 explodes when it's gone. 1275 00:42:06,410 --> 00:42:07,819 If you're unlucky, it's also something 1276 00:42:07,820 --> 00:42:09,379 else explodes and then your return of 1277 00:42:09,380 --> 00:42:11,359 investment is quite negative. 1278 00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,819 And then you have international tourism. 1279 00:42:13,820 --> 00:42:16,099 OK, I am not against tourism here because 1280 00:42:16,100 --> 00:42:18,259 we can travel all over the book, but 1281 00:42:18,260 --> 00:42:18,829 there is a lot 1282 00:42:18,830 --> 00:42:20,989 of money going 1283 00:42:20,990 --> 00:42:22,279 in that, though it's just ordered 1284 00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,019 by big 1285 00:42:24,020 --> 00:42:26,089 things, I believe humanity 1286 00:42:26,090 --> 00:42:28,159 could do a little less with without 1287 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,439 totally dying or be becoming 1288 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:31,589 very unhappy. 1289 00:42:31,590 --> 00:42:32,599 And then there are signs. 1290 00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:34,249 So I like science, obviously. 1291 00:42:34,250 --> 00:42:35,989 So this is just for competition. 1292 00:42:35,990 --> 00:42:38,149 And then there is marketing. 1293 00:42:38,150 --> 00:42:40,159 We spend half a trillion dollars 1294 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:41,539 approximately on marketing those 1295 00:42:41,540 --> 00:42:43,099 worldwide marketing budgets of everybody 1296 00:42:43,100 --> 00:42:45,169 combined and guest and 1297 00:42:45,170 --> 00:42:46,699 a lot of things. And the number comes 1298 00:42:46,700 --> 00:42:48,499 from Wikipedia. So it's not my guessing, 1299 00:42:48,500 --> 00:42:51,139 but it must be around this somewhere 1300 00:42:51,140 --> 00:42:52,759 and in life, and this is ridiculous 1301 00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,619 compared to the next bullet, namely what 1302 00:42:54,620 --> 00:42:56,839 we actually pay for space stuff, which 1303 00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,589 is approximately, I don't know, seven 1304 00:42:58,590 --> 00:42:59,809 percent of that. 1305 00:42:59,810 --> 00:43:02,629 So we are spending significantly less on 1306 00:43:02,630 --> 00:43:04,459 ensuring that we can spread the space and 1307 00:43:04,460 --> 00:43:06,709 save humanity than we spend 1308 00:43:06,710 --> 00:43:08,689 on trying to sell stuff to people. 1309 00:43:08,690 --> 00:43:10,279 And marketing, unfortunately, is quite a 1310 00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,409 zero sum game. So if Coca-Cola and 1311 00:43:12,410 --> 00:43:14,179 Pepsi start a marketing war at war, you 1312 00:43:14,180 --> 00:43:16,339 either get one brown water 1313 00:43:16,340 --> 00:43:18,199 plus caffeine or the other one, but it's 1314 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,299 not going to make a life of difference, 1315 00:43:20,300 --> 00:43:22,489 and certainly it's not necessary to spend 1316 00:43:22,490 --> 00:43:24,260 all this money on such stuff. 1317 00:43:25,610 --> 00:43:27,829 So, yeah, this kind of ends 1318 00:43:27,830 --> 00:43:29,779 my presentation. 1319 00:43:29,780 --> 00:43:31,339 Excerpt from the Internet Thing. 1320 00:43:31,340 --> 00:43:33,049 And if there are questions or some need 1321 00:43:33,050 --> 00:43:34,130 of discussion, please start now. 1322 00:43:45,590 --> 00:43:47,629 So for questions, please line up of the 1323 00:43:47,630 --> 00:43:48,529 microphones. 1324 00:43:48,530 --> 00:43:50,510 And where's the signal angel? 1325 00:43:51,890 --> 00:43:52,890 OK? 1326 00:43:53,350 --> 00:43:55,369 Are there questions from the internet? 1327 00:43:55,370 --> 00:43:56,779 There are two questions from the 1328 00:43:56,780 --> 00:43:58,879 internet. One is, could we 1329 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:00,619 also use this speak by effect for 1330 00:44:00,620 --> 00:44:02,480 acceleration just as the Voyager are 1331 00:44:02,481 --> 00:44:03,481 posted? 1332 00:44:04,730 --> 00:44:05,239 Yes. 1333 00:44:05,240 --> 00:44:06,679 So people have done that. 1334 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:07,710 You can do it, obviously. 1335 00:44:09,890 --> 00:44:11,689 That would save 1336 00:44:11,690 --> 00:44:12,690 a lot of 1337 00:44:14,390 --> 00:44:14,869 fuel 1338 00:44:14,870 --> 00:44:16,699 or stuff you need to take with you. 1339 00:44:16,700 --> 00:44:18,049 It might lengthen. 1340 00:44:18,050 --> 00:44:20,179 Some travel times might not 1341 00:44:20,180 --> 00:44:22,069 necessarily mean much for interstellar 1342 00:44:22,070 --> 00:44:24,109 travel, though, if I'm not totally wrong 1343 00:44:24,110 --> 00:44:26,329 because you actually need to accelerate 1344 00:44:26,330 --> 00:44:28,249 for quite long times across interstellar 1345 00:44:28,250 --> 00:44:29,719 medium, where there isn't much to 1346 00:44:29,720 --> 00:44:31,909 accelerate with using swing vice. 1347 00:44:31,910 --> 00:44:33,529 But I'm not a spice engineer, so I might 1348 00:44:33,530 --> 00:44:35,599 be fundamentally wrong about 1349 00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:36,600 the mechanics here. 1350 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:38,159 OK? 1351 00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,249 And just one shot in addition to 1352 00:44:40,250 --> 00:44:42,319 that one, because in swing 1353 00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,839 by at least using other orbits 1354 00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,939 might be a very, very, very interesting 1355 00:44:46,940 --> 00:44:48,349 way for and relationships to leave the 1356 00:44:48,350 --> 00:44:50,060 galaxy because they are 1357 00:44:51,350 --> 00:44:51,709 rock 1358 00:44:51,710 --> 00:44:54,019 stars traveling across 1359 00:44:54,020 --> 00:44:55,759 the gravity of lots of galaxies. 1360 00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:57,259 And if you're thinking about real big 1361 00:44:57,260 --> 00:44:58,969 time scales, this might be a very energy 1362 00:44:58,970 --> 00:45:00,589 efficient way to move a lot of people 1363 00:45:00,590 --> 00:45:01,590 around. 1364 00:45:02,630 --> 00:45:03,739 OK, thank you. 1365 00:45:03,740 --> 00:45:05,809 Another problem is how to 1366 00:45:05,810 --> 00:45:07,879 slow down for arrival in another solar 1367 00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,039 system. I think you cannot swing down 1368 00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,179 around the planet from 1369 00:45:12,180 --> 00:45:14,569 0.1 percent of light speed. 1370 00:45:14,570 --> 00:45:14,749 Yeah. 1371 00:45:14,750 --> 00:45:16,519 Well, you essentially slow down the same 1372 00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:17,509 way you accelerated. 1373 00:45:17,510 --> 00:45:19,159 You turn around and then you fly the 1374 00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:20,449 thrust of the other way. 1375 00:45:20,450 --> 00:45:22,399 This means you accelerate and decelerate 1376 00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,949 approximately the same length of time. 1377 00:45:24,950 --> 00:45:27,029 There are some ideas about accelerated 1378 00:45:27,030 --> 00:45:29,389 decelerating with solar cells, 1379 00:45:29,390 --> 00:45:31,639 in particular just deploying 1380 00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,159 a large solar sail and letting the 1381 00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:35,719 creation of the target star decelerate 1382 00:45:35,720 --> 00:45:37,969 you. But thrusters would probably be 1383 00:45:37,970 --> 00:45:40,129 a faster way to actually 1384 00:45:40,130 --> 00:45:41,130 break. 1385 00:45:42,140 --> 00:45:43,909 But this means you need to take the 1386 00:45:43,910 --> 00:45:45,349 propellant all the way with you, 1387 00:45:45,350 --> 00:45:46,579 obviously. 1388 00:45:46,580 --> 00:45:48,259 OK, thank you. So far, those are all 1389 00:45:48,260 --> 00:45:50,389 questions from the internet. 1390 00:45:50,390 --> 00:45:52,549 OK, so microphone one two and then 1391 00:45:52,550 --> 00:45:54,049 the one in the back. 1392 00:45:54,050 --> 00:45:56,239 Hi, thank you for the 1393 00:45:56,240 --> 00:45:57,949 first part of your presentation. 1394 00:45:57,950 --> 00:46:00,079 I really loved the way, how you 1395 00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,849 enumerated the problems that we have on 1396 00:46:01,850 --> 00:46:04,519 this one only planet that we have, 1397 00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,769 and I'm a proponent 1398 00:46:06,770 --> 00:46:09,349 of your first option, the tree hugging. 1399 00:46:09,350 --> 00:46:11,629 And so when you moved away 1400 00:46:11,630 --> 00:46:13,879 from that saying that, that's 1401 00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,189 a difficult thing to do and 1402 00:46:16,190 --> 00:46:18,289 we should go for the second 1403 00:46:18,290 --> 00:46:20,509 option, my question 1404 00:46:20,510 --> 00:46:22,699 is which right do we have 1405 00:46:22,700 --> 00:46:24,859 to destroy this planet for the rest 1406 00:46:24,860 --> 00:46:27,109 of the living creatures and then 1407 00:46:27,110 --> 00:46:28,110 just leave? 1408 00:46:29,900 --> 00:46:30,469 Well, this is a 1409 00:46:30,470 --> 00:46:32,779 very philosophical 1410 00:46:32,780 --> 00:46:34,339 and possibly moral question, and indeed, 1411 00:46:34,340 --> 00:46:36,829 it's totally right to ask that one. 1412 00:46:36,830 --> 00:46:38,749 But then again, there is a lot of planets 1413 00:46:38,750 --> 00:46:40,789 out there where we would destroy no 1414 00:46:40,790 --> 00:46:42,469 creatures whatsoever. 1415 00:46:42,470 --> 00:46:44,119 So say the Moon. 1416 00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:45,829 If you totally dismantle the Moon, there 1417 00:46:45,830 --> 00:46:48,019 are not many species going 1418 00:46:48,020 --> 00:46:49,189 to be very sad about it. 1419 00:46:49,190 --> 00:46:51,259 Same thing probably goes for 1420 00:46:51,260 --> 00:46:53,449 Mars. And unfortunately, also 1421 00:46:53,450 --> 00:46:55,639 probably goes for a lot of Earth analogs. 1422 00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,679 And yes, you can make an argument that 1423 00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,229 the galaxies or the universe's resources 1424 00:47:00,230 --> 00:47:02,629 are to be shared fairly 1425 00:47:02,630 --> 00:47:04,879 and they are fairly means to more 1426 00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,009 intelligent species than us. 1427 00:47:07,010 --> 00:47:08,839 And I'm not totally opposed to 1428 00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,070 that, but 1429 00:47:11,540 --> 00:47:13,039 I think that 1430 00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,019 at least a few more planets would add a 1431 00:47:15,020 --> 00:47:16,609 lot of safety 1432 00:47:16,610 --> 00:47:17,329 for 1433 00:47:17,330 --> 00:47:19,399 very low costs, even if 1434 00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:20,719 you take all the other species we don't 1435 00:47:20,720 --> 00:47:21,720 know about into account. 1436 00:47:24,050 --> 00:47:25,609 OK, can we continue this? 1437 00:47:25,610 --> 00:47:26,869 Yeah, later on. 1438 00:47:26,870 --> 00:47:27,979 Indeed. Thank you. 1439 00:47:29,570 --> 00:47:30,379 Hi. 1440 00:47:30,380 --> 00:47:32,179 Two quick remarks and a question. 1441 00:47:32,180 --> 00:47:33,739 Firstly, mark solar sails. 1442 00:47:33,740 --> 00:47:35,209 If they get too big, they get kind of 1443 00:47:35,210 --> 00:47:37,219 fragile and you have to. 1444 00:47:37,220 --> 00:47:38,989 Yeah, it's just not handball anymore. 1445 00:47:38,990 --> 00:47:40,759 I think that's not really a way to 1446 00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:42,379 transport a big vehicle. 1447 00:47:42,380 --> 00:47:45,169 A second remark to the supernovas 1448 00:47:45,170 --> 00:47:47,329 that shouldn't be a problem because they 1449 00:47:47,330 --> 00:47:49,759 are mostly like the big stars that really 1450 00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:51,859 produce supernovas when they die are 1451 00:47:51,860 --> 00:47:53,809 concentrated in the center of the galaxy. 1452 00:47:53,810 --> 00:47:55,879 So if you want to travel there, you 1453 00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:57,559 know it shouldn't be a big problem 1454 00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,449 because you don't have stars in the in 1455 00:47:59,450 --> 00:48:00,450 the arms of the galaxy. 1456 00:48:03,330 --> 00:48:05,459 Well, I mean, 1457 00:48:05,460 --> 00:48:06,920 I mean, to say something, 1458 00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:09,319 this sounds sensible, 1459 00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:11,479 and but if I remember correctly, 1460 00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,729 there was one of these many pages I read, 1461 00:48:13,730 --> 00:48:16,039 there was actually a concrete store named 1462 00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:17,629 within the vicinity of our Solar System, 1463 00:48:17,630 --> 00:48:19,789 which might conceivably undergo 1464 00:48:19,790 --> 00:48:21,709 supernova to type explosion 1465 00:48:21,710 --> 00:48:22,710 within 1466 00:48:23,630 --> 00:48:24,679 the near future. 1467 00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,179 And a few million, two billion years. 1468 00:48:26,180 --> 00:48:28,939 But anyway, this stuff exists, 1469 00:48:28,940 --> 00:48:30,709 OK? Not often, but it does. 1470 00:48:30,710 --> 00:48:31,309 Yeah. 1471 00:48:31,310 --> 00:48:32,869 But the probability probability is 1472 00:48:32,870 --> 00:48:34,279 pretty, pretty low, I think. 1473 00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,349 And on the last slide, 1474 00:48:36,350 --> 00:48:38,359 I was wondering what with the wealth of 1475 00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:39,619 the money was? I mean, if you add up all 1476 00:48:39,620 --> 00:48:40,699 the numbers, it's only like, 1477 00:48:40,700 --> 00:48:41,959 Oh yeah, a lot of five trillion. 1478 00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,329 So I think a lot of it goes actually to 1479 00:48:44,330 --> 00:48:46,729 consumption. As in food, clothing 1480 00:48:46,730 --> 00:48:48,829 construction, it's quite 1481 00:48:48,830 --> 00:48:49,830 hard to get. 1482 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:53,029 Even these numbers were spread all over 1483 00:48:53,030 --> 00:48:55,789 the internet. It's very hard to get 1484 00:48:55,790 --> 00:48:58,219 any kind of numbers for gross, 1485 00:48:58,220 --> 00:48:59,899 global anything except military 1486 00:48:59,900 --> 00:49:02,389 expenditure and 1487 00:49:02,390 --> 00:49:04,219 total gross product because everybody is 1488 00:49:04,220 --> 00:49:05,539 criticizing this military thing. 1489 00:49:05,540 --> 00:49:06,979 So there is a lot of numbers for that 1490 00:49:06,980 --> 00:49:08,599 one. But apart from that, it gets very, 1491 00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:09,439 very hot. 1492 00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:10,440 OK, thank you. 1493 00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,179 So I'm sorry. 1494 00:49:14,180 --> 00:49:15,559 I'm sorry. I'm going to like make like 1495 00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:17,130 all the German freight. 1496 00:49:18,500 --> 00:49:19,500 Do you? 1497 00:49:20,450 --> 00:49:22,279 Sorry, it should be the microphone to the 1498 00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:23,280 back first. 1499 00:49:24,980 --> 00:49:27,049 I I I have a 1500 00:49:27,050 --> 00:49:29,269 question towards population 1501 00:49:29,270 --> 00:49:31,489 growth when you consider 1502 00:49:31,490 --> 00:49:34,369 the current rate of population growing 1503 00:49:34,370 --> 00:49:35,419 on the planet. 1504 00:49:35,420 --> 00:49:37,429 Do you think it's feasible that we reach 1505 00:49:37,430 --> 00:49:39,559 the time of interstellar 1506 00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:41,719 interstellar travel till we reach the 1507 00:49:41,720 --> 00:49:44,239 capacity of the human population 1508 00:49:44,240 --> 00:49:45,259 or a planet? 1509 00:49:45,260 --> 00:49:47,839 And let's say we do that. 1510 00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,299 One would be the time that the population 1511 00:49:50,300 --> 00:49:52,339 will double again on the next planet we 1512 00:49:52,340 --> 00:49:53,079 arrive. 1513 00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,639 Um, so my personal, 1514 00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:57,619 not very real fond opinion on that is a 1515 00:49:57,620 --> 00:49:58,909 very pessimistic one. 1516 00:49:58,910 --> 00:50:00,979 So I expect that 1517 00:50:00,980 --> 00:50:03,469 we will hit population growth limits 1518 00:50:03,470 --> 00:50:05,389 one or the other hard way, actually. 1519 00:50:05,390 --> 00:50:07,069 So they will be over food shortages or 1520 00:50:07,070 --> 00:50:09,229 some other resource depleted, possibly 1521 00:50:09,230 --> 00:50:11,629 leading to significant economic problems, 1522 00:50:11,630 --> 00:50:13,909 which is also, in my opinion, a 1523 00:50:13,910 --> 00:50:15,949 good reason to do this space expansion 1524 00:50:15,950 --> 00:50:18,019 soon because we're currently having 1525 00:50:18,020 --> 00:50:20,029 the possibilities to do all this stuff 1526 00:50:20,030 --> 00:50:22,609 while we are not fighting for food, 1527 00:50:22,610 --> 00:50:24,500 concrete, fertilizers, whatever, 1528 00:50:25,910 --> 00:50:28,249 and then obviously you can't sustain 1529 00:50:28,250 --> 00:50:30,529 exponential population growth on 1530 00:50:30,530 --> 00:50:31,969 a non exponential growing number of 1531 00:50:31,970 --> 00:50:33,769 planets. So, yeah, it's kind of obvious. 1532 00:50:33,770 --> 00:50:35,899 So at some point you either get a hard 1533 00:50:35,900 --> 00:50:38,209 limit or you need to limit our population 1534 00:50:38,210 --> 00:50:39,949 growth some other way. 1535 00:50:39,950 --> 00:50:41,779 And yeah, it doesn't look like it 1536 00:50:41,780 --> 00:50:43,549 currently, unfortunately approaches 1537 00:50:43,550 --> 00:50:44,550 things. 1538 00:50:46,070 --> 00:50:49,009 The red shirt disappeared 1539 00:50:49,010 --> 00:50:50,149 again. 1540 00:50:50,150 --> 00:50:51,150 Oh, you're going to die. 1541 00:50:52,460 --> 00:50:54,139 Hey, whoa. 1542 00:50:54,140 --> 00:50:56,389 Yeah, so I'm 1543 00:50:56,390 --> 00:50:57,800 sorry for all the Germans, but 1544 00:50:59,030 --> 00:51:01,249 I didn't. So any numbers on your 1545 00:51:01,250 --> 00:51:03,439 papers about like nuclear 1546 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,539 propulsion because like, 1547 00:51:05,540 --> 00:51:07,519 I'm sorry, there is a lot of like stuff 1548 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:09,559 that could be used and technology that we 1549 00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:11,659 already have that a load was 1550 00:51:11,660 --> 00:51:13,609 kind of like trouble and just kind of 1551 00:51:13,610 --> 00:51:13,999 like, Oh, 1552 00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:16,249 you mean like Project Orion, for example? 1553 00:51:16,250 --> 00:51:17,250 I mean, that's one of 1554 00:51:18,410 --> 00:51:20,209 the most. Yeah, there is like Nervo. 1555 00:51:20,210 --> 00:51:21,889 There is like a see. 1556 00:51:21,890 --> 00:51:23,959 There is like anti-matter 1557 00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:24,859 triggered fission. 1558 00:51:24,860 --> 00:51:26,929 I mean, many. 1559 00:51:26,930 --> 00:51:30,049 So I certainly omitted a lot of 1560 00:51:30,050 --> 00:51:32,119 possible physically possible propulsion 1561 00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:34,099 systems. One I very specifically know 1562 00:51:34,100 --> 00:51:35,719 about is this arena here where you 1563 00:51:35,720 --> 00:51:38,479 essentially have a huge lead shield 1564 00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,029 and explode a lot of 1565 00:51:41,030 --> 00:51:43,219 hydrogen or fusion efficient 1566 00:51:43,220 --> 00:51:44,899 bombs below this shield in quick 1567 00:51:44,900 --> 00:51:47,239 succession, which would actually be an 1568 00:51:47,240 --> 00:51:49,579 awesome way to provide huge amounts 1569 00:51:49,580 --> 00:51:51,769 of propulsion to a large spaceship. 1570 00:51:51,770 --> 00:51:53,809 It only has some downsides, like other 1571 00:51:53,810 --> 00:51:55,849 countries not liking a lot of nuclear 1572 00:51:55,850 --> 00:51:58,189 explosions in the atmosphere and 1573 00:51:58,190 --> 00:52:00,169 possibly if you do it wrong. 1574 00:52:00,170 --> 00:52:02,389 Nuclear fallout But it's not necessarily 1575 00:52:02,390 --> 00:52:03,889 that much of a problem if you actually 1576 00:52:03,890 --> 00:52:06,349 know what you're doing, but many of these 1577 00:52:06,350 --> 00:52:07,350 things were 1578 00:52:08,660 --> 00:52:10,549 conceived and then discussed and then 1579 00:52:10,550 --> 00:52:12,679 discarded as we are not probably going to 1580 00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:14,690 do that. And I might have 1581 00:52:16,310 --> 00:52:18,439 wrongly excluded some of these options, 1582 00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:19,999 which really, in the end, save humanity. 1583 00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:21,299 And I just admit to them from talk 1584 00:52:21,300 --> 00:52:22,279 business, I was too stupid. 1585 00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,769 That might totally happen, actually. 1586 00:52:24,770 --> 00:52:26,899 So please read more of this Wikipedia 1587 00:52:26,900 --> 00:52:27,919 to find out and 1588 00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,359 for you numbers. 1589 00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,369 The woke prediction of like anti-matter 1590 00:52:31,370 --> 00:52:33,469 is around four nanograms 1591 00:52:33,470 --> 00:52:33,709 per 1592 00:52:33,710 --> 00:52:34,939 year, but we 1593 00:52:34,940 --> 00:52:37,069 have global world production of 1594 00:52:37,070 --> 00:52:39,319 antimatter. So think five years ago, 1595 00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,329 five or 10 years ago, it was like, OK, we 1596 00:52:41,330 --> 00:52:43,429 have created positron and 1597 00:52:43,430 --> 00:52:45,559 everybody's like, Yeah, and now we have 1598 00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,959 like a worldwide production of antimatter 1599 00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,099 in various particle accelerators. 1600 00:52:50,100 --> 00:52:51,619 So in my opinion, this is a lot of 1601 00:52:51,620 --> 00:52:52,549 progress, actually. 1602 00:52:52,550 --> 00:52:54,199 But yes, it is in the range of nanograms, 1603 00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:55,069 indeed. 1604 00:52:55,070 --> 00:52:56,070 Yeah, 1605 00:52:57,980 --> 00:53:00,259 thank you. And no, the one with the I'll 1606 00:53:00,260 --> 00:53:02,569 believe it's the space invader reflector. 1607 00:53:02,570 --> 00:53:02,899 Yes. 1608 00:53:02,900 --> 00:53:03,900 Oh no. 1609 00:53:04,370 --> 00:53:06,139 First of all, I can add to the swing by 1610 00:53:06,140 --> 00:53:07,549 question. 1611 00:53:07,550 --> 00:53:09,229 It will help you get out of the Solar 1612 00:53:09,230 --> 00:53:10,819 System and it will help you a lot. 1613 00:53:10,820 --> 00:53:13,189 But for the total interstellar voyage, 1614 00:53:13,190 --> 00:53:14,659 it will not make much of a difference. 1615 00:53:14,660 --> 00:53:16,099 It's like if you wanted to walk from 1616 00:53:16,100 --> 00:53:18,169 Sweden to South Africa, 1617 00:53:18,170 --> 00:53:19,909 it's like the metro that helps you get 1618 00:53:19,910 --> 00:53:21,619 out of Oslo, but then you still need to 1619 00:53:21,620 --> 00:53:22,620 get to South Africa. 1620 00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:25,680 Thank. 1621 00:53:31,290 --> 00:53:33,419 Yeah. What what I was going to 1622 00:53:33,420 --> 00:53:35,519 ask you is in your research, did you 1623 00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:38,579 find a certain tendency of some 1624 00:53:38,580 --> 00:53:40,769 of the thinking about this 1625 00:53:40,770 --> 00:53:42,809 problem having changed over time? 1626 00:53:42,810 --> 00:53:44,159 Was there a time when people were 1627 00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,139 thinking about it more or are we thinking 1628 00:53:46,140 --> 00:53:48,060 about it now more than ever? 1629 00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:49,559 It a little 1630 00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,499 bit. So there was during, 1631 00:53:52,500 --> 00:53:55,559 I'd say, 30s to 60s 1632 00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:57,689 a lot more optimism in that 1633 00:53:57,690 --> 00:53:59,909 regard. And then as there's always 1634 00:53:59,910 --> 00:54:01,349 this Typekit curve, right? 1635 00:54:01,350 --> 00:54:02,669 And then everybody got a little bit 1636 00:54:02,670 --> 00:54:04,229 pessimistic and all the critics showed 1637 00:54:04,230 --> 00:54:06,479 up. And problem is, I cannot actually 1638 00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:08,489 answer that question for, say, the last 1639 00:54:08,490 --> 00:54:10,649 10 to 20 years because my local filter 1640 00:54:10,650 --> 00:54:12,779 bubble is very heavily 1641 00:54:12,780 --> 00:54:15,029 constricted on some futurist forums. 1642 00:54:15,030 --> 00:54:17,159 So I might totally have of wrong feeling 1643 00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,259 for the dispersion of the 1644 00:54:19,260 --> 00:54:20,849 opinion across the world population 1645 00:54:20,850 --> 00:54:21,189 there. 1646 00:54:21,190 --> 00:54:22,190 All right, thanks. 1647 00:54:24,300 --> 00:54:26,760 I have a question, 1648 00:54:27,980 --> 00:54:30,509 if wouldn't it be sensible to 1649 00:54:30,510 --> 00:54:32,190 look at the problems of 1650 00:54:33,210 --> 00:54:35,279 space travel with the 1651 00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:37,799 same skepticism 1652 00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,289 that's on looking on solving the problems 1653 00:54:40,290 --> 00:54:41,849 here on Earth? 1654 00:54:41,850 --> 00:54:44,609 And what would deaths do of 1655 00:54:44,610 --> 00:54:47,849 your presentation ideas? 1656 00:54:47,850 --> 00:54:49,829 So one reason why I believe that this 1657 00:54:49,830 --> 00:54:51,959 space expansion thing might actually be 1658 00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:54,029 more workable than solving the resource 1659 00:54:54,030 --> 00:54:56,129 stuff on Earth is that 1660 00:54:56,130 --> 00:54:57,959 there are some economic interests 1661 00:54:57,960 --> 00:54:59,129 actually doing it. 1662 00:54:59,130 --> 00:55:00,869 So it's very hard to convince everybody 1663 00:55:00,870 --> 00:55:03,269 on Earth to reduce carbon dioxide 1664 00:55:03,270 --> 00:55:04,949 production, for example, and you need to 1665 00:55:04,950 --> 00:55:07,469 convince pretty much all large 1666 00:55:07,470 --> 00:55:08,909 industrialized nations. 1667 00:55:08,910 --> 00:55:11,039 But you only need to convince one or two 1668 00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,259 large industrialized nations to do space 1669 00:55:13,260 --> 00:55:15,779 exploration to win this. 1670 00:55:15,780 --> 00:55:17,459 So it might be a lot easier on this 1671 00:55:17,460 --> 00:55:18,460 political level. 1672 00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:20,429 This is 1673 00:55:20,430 --> 00:55:23,129 in the main 1674 00:55:23,130 --> 00:55:24,749 only quality I'm feeling there. 1675 00:55:27,870 --> 00:55:29,939 On a similar note, don't you think 1676 00:55:29,940 --> 00:55:32,129 that it's actually doesn't really solve 1677 00:55:32,130 --> 00:55:34,319 the problem you proposed as 1678 00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:36,149 opposed to the tree hugging option? 1679 00:55:36,150 --> 00:55:38,759 Because with the space explosion thing, 1680 00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:40,679 OK, let's say we use all the military 1681 00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:42,299 budget in the world to put a few people 1682 00:55:42,300 --> 00:55:44,609 on Mars. Then we have a colony there 1683 00:55:44,610 --> 00:55:45,929 that might be our option in case 1684 00:55:45,930 --> 00:55:47,549 something goes horribly wrong and the 1685 00:55:47,550 --> 00:55:49,379 Earth is destroyed and humanity is wiped 1686 00:55:49,380 --> 00:55:51,539 out. But until we get to the 1687 00:55:51,540 --> 00:55:53,639 point that we can put a big 1688 00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:55,739 fraction of the people on from planet 1689 00:55:55,740 --> 00:55:57,989 Earth to Mars, that would be 1690 00:55:57,990 --> 00:56:00,659 not the military budget, but like 1691 00:56:00,660 --> 00:56:02,519 a few million times, the military budgets 1692 00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:04,259 are pretty, pretty unfeasible. 1693 00:56:04,260 --> 00:56:05,789 So we still have to deal with all the 1694 00:56:05,790 --> 00:56:07,229 environmental problems here on Earth 1695 00:56:07,230 --> 00:56:09,479 unless we just care about the survival 1696 00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:11,249 of the species as a whole and don't 1697 00:56:11,250 --> 00:56:13,319 really care that a very 1698 00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,719 big portion of it is going to die anyway. 1699 00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,019 OK, so I'm starting to 1700 00:56:19,020 --> 00:56:20,759 answer this very soon anyway. 1701 00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:22,919 So saving some 1702 00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:25,019 maybe upcoming advances 1703 00:56:25,020 --> 00:56:26,489 in anti-aging technology. 1704 00:56:26,490 --> 00:56:27,809 We are all going to die soon. 1705 00:56:28,830 --> 00:56:30,479 So it 1706 00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,309 is, in my opinion, mainly a 1707 00:56:32,310 --> 00:56:33,329 matter. 1708 00:56:33,330 --> 00:56:34,769 So there are two things you can optimize 1709 00:56:34,770 --> 00:56:36,449 for. One is the happiness of current 1710 00:56:36,450 --> 00:56:37,889 population or living population. 1711 00:56:37,890 --> 00:56:39,749 Let's say it, and then it makes total 1712 00:56:39,750 --> 00:56:41,699 sense to go more towards this tree 1713 00:56:41,700 --> 00:56:43,829 hugging to have a very soft limiting 1714 00:56:43,830 --> 00:56:45,959 approach to population growth, meaning 1715 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:47,879 that everybody who ever starts a life has 1716 00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:49,709 a happy life and a long life, and then 1717 00:56:49,710 --> 00:56:50,730 answered in some way. 1718 00:56:52,230 --> 00:56:53,549 But then the question is, what about all 1719 00:56:53,550 --> 00:56:54,959 these other lies that we did not start 1720 00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:56,369 because we didn't have the resources for 1721 00:56:56,370 --> 00:56:57,370 them? 1722 00:56:59,710 --> 00:57:00,429 So you can either 1723 00:57:00,430 --> 00:57:02,619 if you optimize for, say, average 1724 00:57:02,620 --> 00:57:04,869 utility off of people, then this 1725 00:57:04,870 --> 00:57:06,759 option is good. But if you optimize for 1726 00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:08,859 total utility, then it's 1727 00:57:08,860 --> 00:57:10,509 totally insensible because you only get a 1728 00:57:10,510 --> 00:57:12,579 few people compared to billions 1729 00:57:12,580 --> 00:57:13,929 of trillions, actually. 1730 00:57:20,130 --> 00:57:20,789 Yeah. 1731 00:57:20,790 --> 00:57:22,859 I just wanted to to do a 1732 00:57:22,860 --> 00:57:24,869 smart small remark regarding the air 1733 00:57:24,870 --> 00:57:27,029 regarding this travel speed at 1734 00:57:27,030 --> 00:57:29,699 air travel time thing and 1735 00:57:29,700 --> 00:57:31,349 ways around special relativity. 1736 00:57:32,370 --> 00:57:34,799 I think if you go fast enough, then 1737 00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:36,599 special relativity is actually going to 1738 00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:38,100 help you with that because 1739 00:57:39,420 --> 00:57:42,269 if you move fast enough, then 1740 00:57:42,270 --> 00:57:44,129 a lot of although it might take a 1741 00:57:44,130 --> 00:57:46,199 thousand years at that speed at that 1742 00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:48,359 below light speed for the spaceship to 1743 00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:49,829 travel to the other planet. 1744 00:57:49,830 --> 00:57:51,299 The time which will pass for the 1745 00:57:51,300 --> 00:57:53,189 astronauts and the spaceship will get 1746 00:57:53,190 --> 00:57:54,809 smaller and smaller with 1747 00:57:54,810 --> 00:57:55,810 the 1748 00:57:56,460 --> 00:57:58,979 speed of the spaceship, and you can get 1749 00:57:58,980 --> 00:58:01,299 them there in seconds for the astronauts. 1750 00:58:01,300 --> 00:58:02,999 But it will still take a thousand years 1751 00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:04,649 for the other people outside the 1752 00:58:04,650 --> 00:58:05,219 spaceship. 1753 00:58:05,220 --> 00:58:06,989 So you certainly cannot do it in seconds 1754 00:58:06,990 --> 00:58:08,189 because they actually need to accelerate 1755 00:58:08,190 --> 00:58:10,439 to that speed without just pushing 1756 00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,389 everybody can the bottom. 1757 00:58:12,390 --> 00:58:13,919 But yes, you can do it within a 1758 00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:16,229 reasonable timeframes like 30 1759 00:58:16,230 --> 00:58:18,389 to 40 years, even for distances 1760 00:58:18,390 --> 00:58:20,809 vastly larger than a few hundred. 1761 00:58:20,810 --> 00:58:21,960 Yes, indeed. Correct. 1762 00:58:22,980 --> 00:58:25,199 One problem is that you need to have 1763 00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:26,909 all this energy for actually accelerating 1764 00:58:26,910 --> 00:58:28,709 that fast, but it might be solvable. 1765 00:58:28,710 --> 00:58:30,149 And the other one, it's a shifting from 1766 00:58:30,150 --> 00:58:31,949 radiation, so you're going to crash into 1767 00:58:31,950 --> 00:58:32,939 random stuff. 1768 00:58:32,940 --> 00:58:34,769 And even very small random stuff like 1769 00:58:34,770 --> 00:58:36,839 hydrogen atoms in intergalactic 1770 00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:38,789 space are quite energetic. 1771 00:58:38,790 --> 00:58:41,189 If you're traveling at light speed 1772 00:58:41,190 --> 00:58:43,499 and generating a lot of ionization 1773 00:58:43,500 --> 00:58:44,339 in 1774 00:58:44,340 --> 00:58:45,390 your spaceship, meaning in 1775 00:58:46,860 --> 00:58:48,209 humans. 1776 00:58:48,210 --> 00:58:50,039 Yeah, and we don't take it that well. 1777 00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,529 But yeah, it is still I mean, 1778 00:58:52,530 --> 00:58:54,569 they're the ideas for magnetic shields or 1779 00:58:54,570 --> 00:58:57,329 electrostatic fields, shields. 1780 00:58:57,330 --> 00:58:59,369 So it's not inconceivable to actually do 1781 00:58:59,370 --> 00:59:01,409 that once we get the good energy source, 1782 00:59:01,410 --> 00:59:02,819 which is, I believe, the main problem 1783 00:59:02,820 --> 00:59:03,820 here. 1784 00:59:05,650 --> 00:59:08,309 Um, what? You haven't gone to 1785 00:59:08,310 --> 00:59:10,979 space elevators and 1786 00:59:10,980 --> 00:59:13,529 one of your one of your 1787 00:59:13,530 --> 00:59:15,599 main problem you always said is 1788 00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,029 like getting mass and getting things 1789 00:59:18,030 --> 00:59:19,499 into an orbit. 1790 00:59:19,500 --> 00:59:21,729 And the only thing I don't really know 1791 00:59:21,730 --> 00:59:23,639 a lot of about them, but the only thing I 1792 00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:25,829 always hear about them is actually we 1793 00:59:25,830 --> 00:59:28,079 got all the technology we would need 1794 00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:29,009 to build them. 1795 00:59:29,010 --> 00:59:31,139 We just on building them. 1796 00:59:31,140 --> 00:59:32,999 Yes, this is essentially the same 1797 00:59:34,110 --> 00:59:35,219 problem. 1798 00:59:35,220 --> 00:59:36,989 We also have this Mosconi. 1799 00:59:36,990 --> 00:59:39,239 We kind of do know how to 1800 00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,519 approach that, that we have been 1801 00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:44,159 spinning carbon nanotube fibers 1802 00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:46,529 in some in the UK for a few years, 1803 00:59:46,530 --> 00:59:47,849 and it looks like they would be strong 1804 00:59:47,850 --> 00:59:50,189 enough to actually build a space elevator 1805 00:59:50,190 --> 00:59:51,119 that way. 1806 00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:52,589 So it's not like the technology is not 1807 00:59:52,590 --> 00:59:54,789 there. It's mainly there is no political 1808 00:59:54,790 --> 00:59:56,010 will to spend the resources. 1809 00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,529 And so this would be one way to solve 1810 00:59:59,530 --> 01:00:01,349 this. To solve the problem of the gravity 1811 01:00:01,350 --> 01:00:03,359 of this, we would still need to propel 1812 01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:05,609 all the spaceships to 1813 01:00:05,610 --> 01:00:07,739 Mars or some other stellar systems. 1814 01:00:07,740 --> 01:00:10,499 There are also other launch options like 1815 01:00:10,500 --> 01:00:12,719 huge coins, so they are actually some 1816 01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:15,479 designs accelerating a spaceship 1817 01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:17,609 totally on the ground and then launching 1818 01:00:17,610 --> 01:00:19,219 it directly into space from there. 1819 01:00:19,220 --> 01:00:20,999 So apparently that can be done if you're 1820 01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,069 willing to spend a lot of 1821 01:00:23,070 --> 01:00:24,070 power and a lot of 1822 01:00:25,380 --> 01:00:26,759 length to do it. 1823 01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:28,860 But it's not impossible either. 1824 01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:31,000 Thanks. 1825 01:00:32,460 --> 01:00:34,349 Another question since 1826 01:00:35,490 --> 01:00:37,559 we made such a mess 1827 01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:38,699 already here. 1828 01:00:38,700 --> 01:00:41,039 And as you suggested, if we send 1829 01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:43,109 some insane people to colonize the 1830 01:00:43,110 --> 01:00:45,389 next planet and we get this 1831 01:00:45,390 --> 01:00:48,149 kind of insane colony there, 1832 01:00:48,150 --> 01:00:49,859 what what's the point if they are going 1833 01:00:49,860 --> 01:00:51,780 to repeat all of our mistakes? 1834 01:00:57,300 --> 01:00:58,300 OK. 1835 01:00:59,460 --> 01:01:01,559 The question is it 1836 01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:03,629 totally in my opinion, the question is 1837 01:01:03,630 --> 01:01:06,119 what do we want to achieve personally 1838 01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,309 auspicious, but in particular personally? 1839 01:01:08,310 --> 01:01:09,299 So it is. 1840 01:01:09,300 --> 01:01:11,729 This is also what I try to tell 1841 01:01:11,730 --> 01:01:13,349 to some guys microphone too. 1842 01:01:13,350 --> 01:01:14,369 It is a question. 1843 01:01:14,370 --> 01:01:15,389 What are you trying 1844 01:01:15,390 --> 01:01:16,919 to achieve 1845 01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:18,839 in the end? In the end, as in a few 1846 01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:19,769 billion years, 1847 01:01:19,770 --> 01:01:20,579 so 1848 01:01:20,580 --> 01:01:22,019 rule your mouth, you have shaped the 1849 01:01:22,020 --> 01:01:23,429 universe in a meaningful way. 1850 01:01:23,430 --> 01:01:25,769 Or will we have managed to 1851 01:01:25,770 --> 01:01:28,919 kind of continue living on this planet? 1852 01:01:28,920 --> 01:01:30,779 This is OK. I mean, this is a valid 1853 01:01:30,780 --> 01:01:32,639 option, totally available option because 1854 01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,859 it means that we might be able to 1855 01:01:34,860 --> 01:01:35,759 guarantee a very 1856 01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:37,589 happy and resourceful life for every 1857 01:01:37,590 --> 01:01:39,689 human ever come into 1858 01:01:39,690 --> 01:01:42,179 existence from now onwards. 1859 01:01:42,180 --> 01:01:44,699 But it means we are going to have only 1860 01:01:44,700 --> 01:01:46,499 a few billion to maybe one trillion 1861 01:01:46,500 --> 01:01:48,179 humans across the lifetime of the 1862 01:01:48,180 --> 01:01:50,459 universe, meaning we can create 1863 01:01:50,460 --> 01:01:51,929 a lot less cool stuff. 1864 01:01:51,930 --> 01:01:54,059 A lot less cool culture, a lot less cool 1865 01:01:54,060 --> 01:01:56,519 science, a lot less cool anything. 1866 01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,979 This is essentially my reason for 1867 01:01:58,980 --> 01:02:01,079 just creating more population 1868 01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:03,209 and surely life on Mars Colony or 1869 01:02:03,210 --> 01:02:04,589 even for 1870 01:02:04,590 --> 01:02:06,749 move away will not be a very 1871 01:02:06,750 --> 01:02:09,029 happy life. You need to survive. 1872 01:02:09,030 --> 01:02:10,949 You need to actually like build 1873 01:02:10,950 --> 01:02:13,289 habitation from rocks and not like 1874 01:02:13,290 --> 01:02:14,969 coal. A big construction company, there 1875 01:02:14,970 --> 01:02:16,589 is no construction company on Mars. 1876 01:02:16,590 --> 01:02:18,749 It will be a very unhappy life and 1877 01:02:18,750 --> 01:02:21,179 we will reduce the average happiness 1878 01:02:21,180 --> 01:02:22,379 of humans. 1879 01:02:22,380 --> 01:02:23,669 This off? 1880 01:02:23,670 --> 01:02:26,099 OK, we have time for two short 1881 01:02:26,100 --> 01:02:28,049 questions, and these are the very last 1882 01:02:28,050 --> 01:02:28,859 ones. 1883 01:02:28,860 --> 01:02:31,259 Well, Australia started as a colony 1884 01:02:31,260 --> 01:02:32,069 of criminals. 1885 01:02:32,070 --> 01:02:33,070 So 1886 01:02:34,620 --> 01:02:35,620 yeah. 1887 01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,269 And we're doing fine, thank you very 1888 01:02:43,270 --> 01:02:44,270 well. 1889 01:02:45,250 --> 01:02:47,529 Although there might be some people 1890 01:02:47,530 --> 01:02:49,329 in Australia happily objecting to that 1891 01:02:49,330 --> 01:02:51,639 statement, that's a side note. 1892 01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:52,869 So it brought my diplomatic efforts in 1893 01:02:52,870 --> 01:02:54,550 Australia, so it had at least some. 1894 01:02:58,400 --> 01:02:59,400 Yeah. 1895 01:03:01,870 --> 01:03:04,509 Well, I'd like to to answer the 1896 01:03:04,510 --> 01:03:07,089 question before 1897 01:03:07,090 --> 01:03:09,309 why we should send people to Mars if 1898 01:03:09,310 --> 01:03:11,469 we probably would mess 1899 01:03:11,470 --> 01:03:13,629 up our 1900 01:03:13,630 --> 01:03:15,879 civilization on Mars as well. 1901 01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:18,849 Well, if you are that pessimistic, 1902 01:03:18,850 --> 01:03:21,129 you can, in my opinion, 1903 01:03:21,130 --> 01:03:22,929 just go and shoot yourself because 1904 01:03:22,930 --> 01:03:23,930 nothing will matter. 1905 01:03:25,270 --> 01:03:27,609 What we should, what we should 1906 01:03:27,610 --> 01:03:30,399 really do, what we should really 1907 01:03:30,400 --> 01:03:32,799 keep in mind here is that 1908 01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:34,510 a colony on Mars will be 1909 01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:37,029 very much different. 1910 01:03:37,030 --> 01:03:39,039 As you pointed out, life on Mars will be 1911 01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,049 very much different from life on Earth. 1912 01:03:41,050 --> 01:03:43,449 So there will be a completely 1913 01:03:43,450 --> 01:03:45,399 new form of civilization and a completely 1914 01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:48,099 new form, a completely different form 1915 01:03:48,100 --> 01:03:50,229 of culture there, which 1916 01:03:50,230 --> 01:03:53,139 means there is an actual chance 1917 01:03:53,140 --> 01:03:55,299 to make things better and 1918 01:03:55,300 --> 01:03:58,089 to get things different. 1919 01:03:58,090 --> 01:04:00,099 And I think the chances of achieving that 1920 01:04:00,100 --> 01:04:02,169 in such a 1921 01:04:02,170 --> 01:04:04,569 different and an alien environment 1922 01:04:04,570 --> 01:04:06,969 as another planet 1923 01:04:06,970 --> 01:04:09,549 will be much higher 1924 01:04:09,550 --> 01:04:11,409 than just trying to start over on Earth. 1925 01:04:13,420 --> 01:04:15,009 Thank you. I think that's a very nice 1926 01:04:15,010 --> 01:04:16,599 conclusion for this talk. 1927 01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:18,579 Yes, indeed. Thank you very much and also 1928 01:04:18,580 --> 01:04:19,899 thank you all for your attention.